On point from Daily Kos…..
On Sept. 8, the presidential forecast from election analyst Nate Silver gave Donald Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Vice President Kamala Harris at 36%, and as you can imagine, liberals freaked the fuck out. Fox News loved it. But the notion was absurd at the time. The polls were essentially tied.
On Sept. 20, Silver’s model flipped, showing Harris narrowly atop, with 51%. Did anything happen in the race to mark such a dramatic shift in his forecast? Of course not. His model sucks.
And this week? Harris is now up 55% to Trump’s 45% as of Thursday. To hear Silver say it, Harris’ chance of winning has shifted up 14 percentage points in the past two weeks. But nothing has changed in that time frame. So today’s theme is just that: Ignore people claiming things are up and down. The number of undecided voters is extremely low. No one’s minds are being changed. This is now a turnout election….
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Those “undecided” are the politically apathetic, and odds are that they simply won’t vote this year. They have had more than enough information to make a choice by this point. You have to be wilfully obtuse to struggle with a choice.
That means the work lies in the field operation. The side that outworks the other will win this election, and that means you.
That was the case last week. It’s the case this week. And it will be the case next week, no matter what Silver’s stupid model spouts….
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