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On Presidential Polls….Open Thread for Sept. 10, 2024

By

Folks?

There ARE ann and ARE Gonna be new polls evryday for the next two months….

Some are gonna be Good….

Some Bad….

One should remember….

Polls are just a snap shot of a group of people in a narrow time frame….

Polling outfit’s also add or subtract certain varible’s to their results….

The polls also have a built in margin of error….

 

Polling outfits ‘lean’ one way or another sometimes….

 

For campaigns there are also internal polls, whose results are tailored to campuign wanting them …

In some instinaces states may get few polls by outfits that are not high on the reliable list…

 

One must remember….

Polls are just that….

A read of a group of people answering questions in a short time frame….

Those questions, and in the way they are presented can mean ALL difference……

And sometimes?

Polls are outliers….

And sometimes Way off Track….

 

RANKi POLLSTERi 538 RATINGi POLLSCOREi TRANSPARENCY SCOREi POLLS ANALYZEDi
1
The New York Times/Siena College
3.0
-1.5
8.7
122
2
ABC News/The Washington Post
3.0
-1.1
9.2
97
3
Marquette University Law School
3.0
-1.0
10.0
21
4
YouGov
2.9
-1.1
8.8
624
5
Monmouth University Polling Institute
2.9
-0.9
9.9
149
6
Marist College
2.9
-0.9
9.1
211
7
Suffolk University
2.9
-1.0
8.6
123
8
Data Orbital
2.9
-0.9
9.0
19
9
Emerson College
2.9
-1.1
8.2
273
10
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion
2.9
-0.9
8.6
31

FiveThirtyEight….

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  2. JD Vance, Ted Cruz and other Republicans fell for a viral hoax about Haitian immigrants in Springfeld, Ohio eating cats and ducks Monday. The police confirm no credible reports of such events and it all seemed to start with a social media post about what a “neighbors friends daughter” saw.

    This reminds me of the Satanic Panic in the 1980s when someone’s “friends neighbors sister” saw babies being sacrificed and heavy metal and Goth kids got blamed.

    Also reminds me of the tired racist 80s “jokes” about Asian immigrants eating cats and dogs.

    What a wonderful mix of outdated weird lies Republicans decided to elevate the day before a Presidential debate.

    • If you can believe and embellish Trump’s Bull Shit?

      You’ll believe ANYTHING…..

      Musk’s Twitter HAS TONS of this stuff

      Trump loss IS gonna drive them batshit crazy

      • Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance defended himself on Tuesday against criticism over his amplification of false claims that Haitian immigrants had abducted and eaten others’ pets in Springfield, Ohio.

        Vance, who is a senator from Ohio, said in a post on X that his office has received “many inquiries” in the past few weeks from residents of Springfield who said Haitian migrants abducted their neighbors’ pets or local wildlife…

        More…

  4. ABC did not shut off the mics after all, and they should explain why. However, the Trump campaign will complain endlessly about that, and the fact that their candidate’s own words were allowed to be broadcast to America.

      • Glad to see you finally accepting that reality, James

        The mood at the watch party tonight was total exuberance. The way she held her own, cut him down with surgical precision, and he went straight to Crazytown at every opportunity was a marvel to behold. And his sexist dog whistle about “Run, Spot, Run” was the absolute best the sad sack could do. As soon as he mentioned Springfield, OH, early in the debate, I knew where it was going.

        Just imagine if Republicans had picked Nikki Haley. Biden would still be the candidate, the first debate would have been held tonight instead of June 27, and it would have been an even bigger disaster than that affair already was. At least Biden had the benefit of going up against Trump.

        Also got to donate $50 each to two federal candidates after my paycheck dropped. Caroline Gleich in Utah’s Senate race and Lexy Doherty, who is running against Georgia’s Worst Congressman, klan hood Mike Collins. There will be more, including the guy running against Nancy Mace and the person challenging Steve Scalise. Guess I’ll do more to flip the Charleston district than our BarcaLounger model Jack.

        • The only way Republicans would have picked Nikki Haley is if Trump dropped dead or dropped our before the primaries. And even then they would have gone with someone more MAGA and almost certainly a white male. They couldn’t even pick a non white male for VP this year and made almost the worst possible pick to try and amplify the douchey bro and angry old white male vote because that’s all they have.

          • Haley actually only fit the media billing

            Can you imagine a Haley vs Harris Campaign for the American President?

            The MAGA types would be mobbing the airport’s leaving the country

  6. So much fun stuff from this debate and I had a lot of snarky comments to make on Twitter, which liberals seemed to enjoy.

    Think about it though. Trump fired by 81 and Biden fired at 81.

      • I can understand why CG likes Twitter now…..

        It’s 95% MAGA mouthpieces

        My posts go out to 160+ there but I’m going there less and less….

        I look at the quick polling numbers stuff

      • Considered it, but voted Biden the day after the strong performance at the SOTU. Really not enamored of his hands off approach towards Israel and letting Netanyahu terrorize innocent Palestinians. That whole thing could have been conducted a lot more swiftly and efficiently and in a way that brought the culprits of 10/7 to justice sooner without the needless 100+K casualties. “War is hell” my ass.

        And frankly, I knew deep down the age and decreasing ability of Biden was going to land with average voter. Still, I’m glad he and Harris were renominated before he dropped out. The current scenario is the best of all worlds.

        • U know i was for Biden
          But he just wasn’t the person for a win
          Harris is not my favorite person, but she’s grown on me….

          She has run a very good campaign

          • As a post says….

            Harris’s age and vitality IS CLEARLY a HUGE advantage over Biden, who is simply not up to the rigorous level of campaigning that going on now……

            And Biden was not comfortable in attacking Trump something Harris and Walz do on the regular

  9. You are listening to a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Saying Harris doesn’t have more than just one path to 270(and writing off the state of Pennsylvania entirely!) is ridiculous, but nothing I wouldn’t expect from the Peanut Gallery.

    • Of courese there are other paths….

      But the primary SEEMS to be Pa…

      She’s getting her touches there

      Biden has been there….Home town guy….

      Obama and the Clintons are supposed to be hitting the camapign trail shortly also

    • And we hear from the Marianne Williamson campaign.Oh that’s right you later “ found out “what she was all about after implying that Biden was afraid of her and you wanted to make sure she got “a fair count” or some other gibberish.

      Only someone who was totally devoid of any political knowledge would have written anything so ridiculous.Williamson is a kook yet you were supporting her at one time?And you want to talk about a “ peanut gallery?” What foolishness.

      Then you “ predicted “ that the Democrats will sweep the Congressional elections picking up what?A hundred or so seats?
      More clown foolery.After being confronted about that silliness your defense was that you were being uh “ optimistic?” Yeah right.You were just posting some goofy foolishness which you have been noted for over the years.

      Gross silliness.

      • I do sometimes have a fondness for characters on the margins(Frankly, I am a character on the margins), and off-basedly attributed formidability to her based on her 2020 bid that came hair’s breadth from gaining traction in Left Wing circles around the time Bernie Sanders had his health scare. In more Right skewing days, I talked Trump up before anyone else. So the terrain is dubiously familiar.

        Other than the fact that I am bullish on Harris and the Democrats(even in some areas your state), I’ll take a vow of the silence on the predictions until end of October and, going forward, do a better job of determining who’s serious and who’s not.

        And I just assumed Charleston anchored Mace’s district. Outdated info. Still don’t regret tossing $50 Michael B. Moore’s way. I’ve tossed in the last week the same amount down on candidates with lesser odds.

          • Always a good thought I keep in the back of my mind. Being on the ground floor of someone’s success. Knowing I helped give a beleaguered populace actual representation.

            Next one I’m looking at is the person running against Steve Scalise. Easily the longest of my long shot donations. Also some Kentucky and Missouri US House races.

          • There is the good feeling that comes from being on the ground floor of a successful operation such as that. There’s also the knowledge that you helped people get good representation in Congress for potentially the first time.

            I am just grateful to Ron Gunzburger for curating the state by state pages on P1. It really helps me to narrow things down and hone in on particular races.

  10. Oh and you want to know what I’m doing about the Congressional race in the S.C. first district?

    Not a damn thing .

    The district was gerrymandered by the Republicans after Cunningham upset win in 2018.The Democratic voting areas were removed and placed in Clyburns district , including where I live.

    Mace is a lock and there’s very little evidence of a campaign even going on.She will win between 55-60 % easily.

    • Then you were telling us how you were contributing money to the Democratic candidate opposing Ga. Congressman Mike Collin’s?

      I agree that Collin’s is a POS but as anyone with any political knowledge would plainly see his district is overwhelmingly Republican.He received 65% last time out and will likely get about the same this time.

      You want to flush your money down a toilet?

      Flush away.

      • Long shot races are where money goes furthest. Presidential and marquee Senate/House/Governor’s races are just a donor play pen. I just try to think logistically.

        • No they’re not.

          Where money goes the furthest as you say is in a district where say a Republican won last time. 52/48.

          Such would indicate that the district is potentially a “ swing “ district and the Democrat has a reasonable chance .

          • If you’re in a swing district, say in the Suburbs, chances are there’s higher dollar media markets that require an eons bigger bank account than I have. Whereas in more exurban, Suburb/medium size city adjacent district usually has cheaper rates on newspaper ads(web and print), billboards, and radio spots.

            The more Democratic and presumably higher educated an area, the more money is required to reach them in the sprawling media markets. Whereas in more Republican/non voting areas, it’s cheaper(and, weirdly, more effective) to advertise and get a simple message(shoe-string budgets don’t lend themselves to a lot of big words) out there and pique interest.

            A strategy borne of optimism, yes. Whatever gets people who never cared about elections in their lives is good with me. I want to see us be like the first Iraqi election that had 95 or so percent turnout. Most of it cutting our way with good messaging, though.

            • Plus I’m also investing towards an increased ground game/persuasion(to the extent the latter is possible) operation that turns places hard towards us and actually gets good government that helps people.

              The only two states in America that I don’t think even my best efforts could flip are North Dakota and Wyoming.

  11. Ron did not get picked by the Mayor to fill a vacancy on the Annapolis City Council, which probably was not much of a surprise. He is now running as a Democrat against the appointed incumbent in a primary that will not occur until over a year from now in September 2025. He is running to the right of the “progressive” appointed to the City Council and already has several aggressively negative press releases out against him. I think he probably continues to enjoy campaigns.

  12. Truth be told, I can see why I thought Jack lived safely within Mace’s district regardless of the racial gerrymandering state Republicans did a few years ago. I assumed a multi millionaire attorney like him would be living large on Folly Beach or the Isle of Palms.

      • It is indicative of his mindset and priorities and focus with 51 days to go. This ought to be so embarrassing for him and those who are forced to defend him. He will continue to melt down, worse and worse, each day until the election, and probably afterwards as well. Still, opinions on him and on his opposition party is so well set, that nothing is going to move the needle a whole lot.

        The Republican Party has gone from “Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall” to this.

    • I think Trump will win Iowa, but the comments on a MAGA blog (the remnants of the survivors from the old HHR) were all, “Selzer is coming out with an Iowa poll tomorrow, She is the BEST! Gold Standard. If Trump is up by 18, it probably means he is well ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan.”

      Today, “fake poll. Totally not worthy of belief. Part of media conspiracy to hurt Trump. Horrible pollster in 2020” etc etc.

    • Of note, RFK Jr is still polling at 6% in Iowa. Depending on if he’s still on the ballot come Election Day and if undecideds uniformly break for Harris, this state could be quite an upset.

  17. RFK Jr. is on the ballot in Iowa and has been encouraging people there to vote for him because of the belief that it was a safe state for Trump.

  18. Vance just let the cat out of the bag by saying he’s more than happy to make up stories to “bring attention to human suffering.” In other words, the old trope about “lying for God.”

    With that in mind, I’ve not one ounce of high minded consideration for what’s breaking right now.

    • J.D. Vance Admits He ‘Creates Stories’

      Sen. J.D. Vance admitted on CNN that he spread lies about the Haitian community in Springfield: “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.”

      NPR: Vance defends spreading claims that Haitian migrants are eating pets.

      Axios: Vance pushes debunked pet-eating claims yet again.

  19. SC Congressman Joe “You lie!” Wilson, 77, received a pacemaker and will be released soon following stroke like symptoms.

    He’s another one I have my eye on as an upset possibility come Election Day.

  20. Instead of going down the rat hole of Don Jr, Tucker, or Kanye in ’28, the real answer for Republicans may just be the Finley/Gross ticket and the winning platform of “No doggin’!”

      • This said……

        There WOULD BE so many things I would like to change…..

        He, he, he

        I’d need a Different VP……

        What spot would you want?

        • Not unlike you, I have no electoral or governmental aspirations whatsoever.

          In more right leaning days, I did often think about running for office. Mainly as a joke. Then Trump eventually won, and I ditched the idea.

        • Trump’s coming to Long Island Thursday….
          Going to the Nassau Colosseum…

          Not the BIG New UBS 15,000 capacity building….

          The place is a Republican site dwarfed by UBS building which sits on the Democratic Nassau County/Queens border….

          Country Republicans will get their dose

          It’s really a wasted trip

          He’ll carry Nassau

          But that will be eclipsed by the NYC Democrats vote…

          • Decision Desk HQ
            @DecisionDeskHQ
            ·
            Decision Desk HQ Presidential Forecast (9/16):
            Decision Desk HQ Presidential Forecast (9/16):

            Probabilities:
            🟦 Harris: 55% (+1 since last week)
            🟥 Trump: 45%

            Electoral College Forecast:
            🟦 Harris: 226
            🟥 Trump: 219
            🟨 Tossups: 93

            Average Electoral Vote Projection:
            🟦 Harris: 276
            🟥 Trump: 262

            Tossups:
            🟨 Pennsylvania: 52% Harris
            🟨 Arizona: 52% Trump
            🟨 Wisconsin: 57% Harris
            🟨 Georgia: 61% Trump
            🟨 Michigan: 63% Harris
            🟨 North Carolina: 64% Trump
            https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/

  21. Missouri President is at 55-44 Trump, close to the Romney/Obama margin. Senate poll has Hawley over Kunce 50-46, in line with the last time the state had a close Senate race.

    Indiana President is at 52-42 Trump. This may now be in the same ballpark of gettability as Ohio, which has similar weak polls for Trump compared to his previous margins. No poll on the Senate race.

    Cygnal Polls, a Republican firm, did those polls.

      • You have no idea what you are talking about and are now in a habit of referencing me in odd ways. You have often done the same to jack.

        I said there are no “reverse” coattails in politics. Harris is not going to win Arizona because Gallego pushes her over. She may win it on her own. In theory, someone at the top of a ticket can help those beneath it on the ticket. An unpopular person at the top of the ticket could hurt people underneath them on the ticket.I hope that is clear.

        The Indiana Senate race will not be close.

        • Well?

          If a voter is strong FOR abortion access AND their Senator or Governor?

          I would think they could stay in the Democratic column for President…..

          I could be wrong

        • “Reverse coattails” are rare but they are a real thing. Here in Missouri they were mentioned as a reason why Barack Obama won some normally deep red counties in the Ozarks and coming within 3000 votes of winning the stste in 2008. Democrat Jay Nixon waa winning the Governors race by a lopsided 60-40.

          This year Reverse coat tails are most likely to make the difference in North Carolina where the repugnant GOP nominee is losing by double digits.

          • Down Ballot Democrats?

            House Democrats’ ‘Sleeper’ Seats Suddenly in Sight

            Politico: “After several cycles of ceding ground to Republicans, Democrats believe their top-of-the-ticket energy could power a major comeback in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. And it’s not just talk — they’re investing millions in the red-tinted turf.”

            “As new polling comes in, Democrats are increasingly directing money and manpower toward targets like Michigan’s 10th, Wisconsin’s 3rd and Iowa’s 1st and 3rd. Those were considered ‘reach’ seats even just a few weeks ago — Donald Trump won them by between 0 and 5 points in 2020 — and flat-out unwinnable this spring.”

            • That new Iowa race they’re now talking up(which has been on my radar for months) is one I’ll definitely give money to next week. Her and Scalise’s opponent are my next two.

              • Also Hank Linderman, who’s running against Brett Guthrie(R) in Kentucky. And I’ll need to consult Scott on which of the Missouri slate has the best shot. There’s Governor nominee Crystal Quade, Ray Hartmann running against Republican Ann Wagner, Bethany Mann running for Blaine Luetkemeyer’s seat, and Pam May running for Sam Graves’ seat. Several races in PA I’m also scoping out.

    • Looking back on the movement, the president repeatedly expressed his admiration for the “men and women who broke the back of the prejudice, or began to break the back” starting with those involved in the nascent movement for gay rights that was kicked off in earnest with the 1969 Stonewall Riots.

      They “took their lives in their own hands,” Biden said. “Not a joke. It took enormous courage, enormous courage, and that’s why I’ve spent some time also trying to memorialize that,” first as vice president in 2016 when President Barack Obama designated a new national monument at the site of the historic uprising, and again this summer when speaking at the opening ceremony of the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center….

      More….

      • John Sciutto @ Twitter

        New @QuinnipiacPoll:

        PENNSYLVANIA:
        Harris 51%
        Trump 45%
        Stein 1%
        Oliver 1%

        MICHIGAN:
        Harris 50%
        Trump 45%
        Stein 2%

        WISCONSIN:
        Harris 48%
        Trump 47%
        Stein 1%

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