I’m seeing quite a few comments about the two week old ABC poll that shows Kamala Harris up +6 among likely voters. While it’s nice to take comfort in this poll after seeing that “bad” NYT poll from yesterday, the fact is the ABC poll is from two weeks ago.
But I’m here to tell you that the story released today about that poll is much more interesting than the poll itself, if you understand what the data is saying.
Besides being a +3 R sample, the NYT poll is not picking up newly registered D leaning voters. If you’re not familiar with the story of what is happening with new voter registrations, I suggest you acquaint yourselves with Tom Bonier. This video is a couple of weeks old, but it will give you the back story. Just understand that all new info corroborates what Bonier is saying in this video.
Here are the crosstabs for some traditionally D leaning subgroups from yesterday’s NYT poll.
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She is carrying traditional D voters by traditional D numbers. That’s the story and that story is much bigger than any one poll….