This is the second poll run that is in opposition to almost ALL of the other polling….
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Noble Predictive Insights
Harris 48, Trump 47
Harris +1
North Carolina:Trump vs. Harris
Elon University
Trump 45, Harris 46
Harris +1
…
One day after that NY Times poll….
There will be more different polls then the Times…
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris | NY Times/Siena |
Trump 49, Harris 47
|
Trump +2
|
|
More polls out making NY Times poll results look stupid
Making a big deal out of these insignificant one and two point leads is ridiculous.
Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer wisely reminds us”…a poll that shows Harris up two and one that shows her down two are essentially the same.”
You won’t hear that here of course where the pom poms are on daily display .
Fact is that,as of now, this is a tossup race that could go either way.
Actually?
It’s NOT a toss-up
Hasn’t been since Biden dropped out
I know ur a pessimist
But Harris LEADS with Black’s , Latinos, Asians, young , women and EVERYONE ELSE cept his crazy assed base
She LEADS in every polling average even on the Right leaning placed
If ya check?
The places have her at 270 EV’s
He has NO ACTUAL campaign apparatus
No get out the vote
Every day we have more GOPer defections
BUT?
Yea?
It’s a toss up?
Sigh
And there you have it.
Harris has won the election!
No need for any more polling or any further discussion really.
On to the Cabinet selections!
He, he, he
The election voting just started
I KNOW she has NOT WON
BUT?
IS WINNING in the national and EV count
winning does not equal won. Both sides cherry pick polls and data to think they are “winning.” Anybody who cares a lot about politics has confirmation bias. I would include myself in wanting to see Trump lose.
Nationally, it is close. In the key states, it is even closer. Both parties, should have given more thought in the VP selection.
It is very much a Tossup as of today. It might not be a week before the election, but right now, it definitely is.
I would say Harris has about a 51 percent chance of getting to 270 Electoral Votes. That makes it a tossup.
james and and the MAGA mirror image bloggers each think the candidate they support has about a 75 percent chance of victory. Pro-Trump versions of james are convinced (wrongly) that Harris is on path to lose by a landslide. What we see hear is not all that different. This is a very divided country on policy, and too many people these days have been trained to vote for what they selfishly think is best for their own pocketbooks and not on the character of the candidates or what is best for the country as a whole.
As hard as it is for many Democrats to accept, the economic policies/record of Biden and Harris are just not popular and that why this race is so close.
I agree that Harris is a slight favorite at this point.
As for my being a “ pessimist?”
I prefer to think that I’m just being a realist.
Do I want to see Trump defeated?
Absolutely.
Am I prepared to say it’s a done deal?
No Im not.
CG?……..
My point here IS Trump has Mostly his base….
Harris has mostly EVERYTHING ELSE…..
Again
Even U just placed her AHEAD…..
He LOST LAST TIME…..
He’s got excess baggage
And ain’t any younger
I don’t know how you define “base” but by common definition that is clearly not the case. There will be a lot of people who will vote for him who do no consider themselves part of his “base.”
The bottom line is that in spite of all of his negatives, Harris is not running as strongly as Biden was at this point four years ago or Hillary appeared to be doing eight years ago. You cannot wish these realities away because you and probably everybody you speak with (myself included) despises Trump.
For 20 years now, I have seen online partisans from both parties, late in campaigns, insist, “this poll sucks, when you unskew the poll, the actual numbers should be this… disregard this poll because I don’t like what it says…”
james though seems to take it to a new level.
The NY Times polls ARE OUTLIER’s
I list the reasons here….
Your reasons seem to be “I think they are outliers.” I do not see you as having offered any compelling or even coherent reason why they are “outliers.”
But again, partisans on both sides, always think the polls they don’t like are outliers and the ones they like are terrific.
CG?
I repeat……
The Times MOE’s are up from 4.2 to 4.7 I believe
Just looking at the spead, even on Right leaning RCP presents a stark contrast
CG?
This the second one!
Even Silver acknowledges their polls ARE outlier’s
Harris IS AHEAD
HECK?
Trump ain’t even campaigning
He’s just doing his grievances out loud
And guys?
GOPer’s are all across the media worried
THAT ain’t winning
I am pretty sure the Democrats you see on tv shows, etc are also “worried.” They wouldn’t be very smart if they were not at this point.
Why would they display outright confidence and have voters NOT come out to vote???????
Not sure what you are talking about but its not the job of pundits to display “outright confidence” if you even talking about pundits.
I know
CYA…..
Travis Akers @ Twitter
If you don’t believe Florida is in play, the Harris campaign and Florida Democrats just opened a second office in Jacksonville and are opening two more offices in Duval County alone.
You are in a confirmation bubble.
The reality is that polls may show that “LEADS with Black’s , Latinos, Asians, young , women”. but in many of those polls not by nearly as much as Joe Biden won them by when he won a very competitive election in 2020. There are of course many other people beyond those groups that will be voting. Democrats need to hope that those in those groups who say they are “undecided” will fall into place at the end.
Now, there are two things to consider when looking at polls.
1. Yes, Harris may have a far greater GOTV effort and ground game than Trump
2. Each time Trump has been on the ballot as general election candidate, he has performed better than the polls indicated.
Will she win the popular vote? That is a better bet than Tossup right now. However, we all know that is not enough to win the election. How much does she need to win the popular vote by in order to get 270 EV? I would say probably 4 percent. So any national poll, where she is not up by 4 or more indicates a Tossup in my view.
The undecided are down to single digits ….
Again
In the states Harris IS shown ahead to grab 270 EV’s
She, like just about every modern day Democrat WILL win the popular vote….
There ARE MORE Democrats in the place
And Trump might have done better 4 years ago?
BUT HE LOST…..
REALITY
Trump is doing better in the polls now than he did four years ago or eight years ago.
Maybe the polls are more accurate now as it relates to him, because he was short-changed in those polls in those elections.
If the number of undecideds is small, and I agree that it is, it shows that this is a very close race right now.
The states to get to 270? She is ahead in enough of them.. barely. A few are margin of error. We are talking specifically about WI, MI, and PA. She needs to win all four.
The only other states (the 1 EV in NE 2 is sort of a whole other topic but minus NV, it would be a must win) that are up for grabs are NV, AZ, GA, and NC. She looks to be narrowly behind in AZ and GA and tied in the other two.
Ultimately, I think the same candidate will probably win 6 out of the 7 states but you are far too cocky right now.
The NE/UT EV THING is DOA…..
She will win Arizona
Ga IS close
No doubt , but possible
It they don’t steal things in broad daylight
AZ is the least likely of the seven battleground states she will win in my view.
I think she pulls it out
Seriously?
I think she repeats Biden 2020
With Ga a question mark
The NE 2nd district thing going to the statewide winner is over (though I am sure it will be changed for 2028), but she still needs to win it to get the 1 EV.
james, give a number on a 0-100 scale.
What percent do you think it is right now that she wins?
270 to 300 EV’s
That’s not what I asked. I asked what percent from 0 to 100.
I am sure you realize though that 270 is the bare minimum.
Yea …… and getting 270 means Trump and GOPer’s would be all over her case…..
Percent i think she gets elected?
65% just off the top of my head