I’m NOT gonna be so worried about making mistake….
I’ve seen enough…..
The Kamala Harris/Tim Walz campaign IS looking like a winner 49 days out….
Harris isn’t Hillary Clinton….
She’s smarter, stronger has learned from the Hillary and Biden campaigns….
And?
She’s running against a beat up, distracted , senile, angry felon that people are looking to hurt…..
Donald Trump IS trailing in the national and swing state polls…..
Harris seems to be a SOLID 3 to 5 percentage points AHEAD…
She has been ahead ever since Joe Biden stepped back…
Trump has seemingly survived this and THAT….
But?
The combined weight of things seems to have him having the political bill due….
A new Monmouth poll finds 49% of registered voters say they will either definitely (39%) or probably (10%) vote for Kamala Harris in November while just 44% will definitely (34%) or probably (10%) support Donald Trump.
About half say they will definitely not vote for Trump (48%), while a smaller number say they definitely will not vote for Harris (42%).
Kamala Harris has opened up a 5-point lead nationally in The Economist‘s vote tracker.
Harris holds 6-point national lead over Trump in postdebate polling
Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump nationally by 6 points, according to a polling released a week after the first debatebetween the major party nominees.
The Morning Consult survey, published Tuesday, found Harris garnered 51 percent support among likely voters — her highest margin to date — compared to Trump’s 45 percent. Some 2 percent said they would prefer someone else, while another 2 percent had no opinion. The vice president’s lead is outside the survey’s margin of error.
Harris holds 67-point lead over Trump among LGBTQ voters: Poll
Vice President Harris leads former President Trump among LGBTQ voters by a wide margin, with more than 70 percent of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer voters indicating they will cast a ballot for the Democratic ticket, according to a poll released Tuesday.
Harris holds a nearly 67-point lead over Trump, according to the survey from the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest LGBTQ advocacy organization, and an almost 70-point lead when the results are restricted to those who plan to vote.
Update….
Sabato’s people say there should be NO vast difference in how the 2024 polls read against the 2020 polls when Biden beat Trump….
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide this election generally reflect what happened in 2020, although Donald Trump is usually performing slightly better than the actual 2020 results in those states, much like the polling in the key battlegrounds that we covered last week.”
image….U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her newly chosen vice presidential running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz react as they hold a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Chris Cillizza
@ChrisCillizza
As of today, Kamala Harris is on track to win the presidency.
She’s up 4-5 in national polls and is tied or ahead in virtually every swing state.
Can it change? Of course.
But her trajectory is right.
youtube.com
Why Kamala Harris is on track to win the presidency
Tuesday was a VERY good day for Kamala Harris. National and swing state polling makes clear she is on the trajectory to win the race.Which doesn’t mean she WILL win.
But it DOES mean she is on the right path to win.
Shades of NC?
Down ballot help FOR Harris/walz
Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) is leading his Republican rival Dave McCormick in new Keystone State polling.
In a new poll from The Philadelphia Inquirer/The New York Times/Siena College, Casey garnered 49 percent support from the likely electorate in Pennsylvania compared to McCormick’s 40 percent. Another poll from Franklin & Marshall College found Casey leading with 48 percent support to McCormick’s 39 percent among registered voters….
More…