Several people here at the PDog don’t agree with Jonathan Martin over at Politico….
I agree with him….
I’ll let Martin explain….
Now, as Labor Day marks the final stretch of another presidential campaign, it’s time for another round of truth-telling.
The best possible outcome in November for the future of the Republican Party is for former President Donald Trump to lose and lose soundly. GOP leaders won’t tell you that on the record. I just did.
Trump will never concede defeat, no matter how thorough his loss. Yet the more decisively Vice President Kamala Harris wins the popular vote and electoral college the less political oxygen he’ll have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party.
Harris is less a doctrinaire progressive than she is up for grabs on policy, but any liberal course she takes would be constrained by a GOP-held Senate. No, that’s not a sure thing, but it’s the safest electoral bet in this turbulent election. What is virtually certain come January is that conservatives will have a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, which will also serve as a check on the law and rulemaking coming out of a Democratic White House.
That adds up to a recipe for gridlock — and perhaps some deal-making to fund the government and avoid across-the-board tax hikes — but not a Scandinavian social welfare state.
2026 would represent the sixth year of one party holding the presidency, always a promising midterm for the opposition. Those conditions, along with a diminished, twice-defeated Trump, would make it easier for Republicans to recruit Senate candidates….
…
A Democratic House majority would also be far easier for Republicans to reverse under Harris than Trump. And the GOP would almost certainly find more success in the 36 governors’ races taking place that year if they were running against the so-called six-year-itch.
For most Republicans who’ve not converted to the Church of MAGA, this scenario is barely even provocative. In fact, asking around with Republicans last week, the most fervent private debate I came across in the party was how best to accelerate Trump’s exit to the 19th Hole….
…
One high-level Republican, conceding it may only be “wishful thinking,” even floated the idea of a Harris victory followed by Biden pardons of both his son, Hunter, and Trump. That would take the issue of both cases off Harris’ plate and, more to the point, drain the energy behind Trump’s persecution complex so that Republicans can get on with the business of winning elections.
The broader question among Republicans: Would it be best to endure a Harris presidency to keep Trump out of power, likely for good? Or is the better way to hasten his departure from the scene for him to win so that he could only serve one more term and be done for certain in 2028?….
…
This is not all to say things are hunky-dory for Democrats. But that’s the point. Their precarious coalition is entirely dependent on sharing a common enemy, Trump, and has been for nearly a decade. Why do Republicans want to keep propping up their opposition?
The day after Trump leaves the scene, Democrats will lose their best force for unity, fundraising and enthusiasm…
Note…
Barack Obama won his first term and carried Democrats to victory in the House and Senate only to see those Congressional majorities slip away in the ensuing elections…
If Republicans lose in November they will have lost 6 of the last 9 Presidential elections and will have lost the popular vote in 8 of the last 9 elections.
There will be serious discussion as to whether the party in its current can form can or should survive.
I agree Scott
I don’t think Jack does
I’d like CG’s view on this
My view? jack has always tended to be a bit on the pessimistic side, but he is closer to the reality than pure partisan cheerleaders.
The good news for you guys (and for all who want Trump to lose), Harris is doing far better than Biden ever could. Some people were still insisting only Biden could win and must stay in the race, but they probably realize they were wrong now, if they ever actually truly believed that.
Anyway, the race is very close. Harris might win by a few points nationally, but unless you get 270 plus nothing else matters. There is a debate next week that could have a big impact, one way or another, but that is what we were saying over two months ago also.
The three key states are MI, WI, and PA. If she can win all three, she will win the race, regardless of AZ, GA, or NV. If she can’t win all three, she probably doesn’t win. Right now, PA looks the absolute closest. I know Democrats like Tim Walz a lot, but I still think the right play would have been to pick Shapiro, just because of the extreme importance of PA (plus potentially an extra 2 points in FL that may not make a difference there, but they will not get now.)
I backed Biden till the end……
But him dropping was the BEST DECISION he has made in his political career…..
I believe Harris WILL carry Michigan AND Pennsylvania thus becoming the First Woman President of the United States of America…:
Good to hear from ya….
And YES. I’m OPTIMISTIC
DAMN REAL….:
Walz was the right choice. Shapiro will be President someday but he wasn’t the right balance for Harris. Walz is.
I think Shapiro would be TOO much over the top….
Yea he’s Pennsylvania ….
How long can a party that no longer wins the popular vote go on!?
He, he, he……
Scott?
I THINK they ARE ALREADY over the cliff….
The Republicans will lose, again, in November. The only thing that might save them is the Electoral College, a system devised to protect slavery. Fitting that it was used to install two Republicans who used racist dog whistles to turn out their base and win by losing the popular vote. Like today’s Republican Party it needs to go.
Also interesting that there was another attempt here to rewrite the 2008 electron as if John McCain ever had a chance to win it after that black guy got the nomination.
Just like all those years of excuses for all those Republican dog whistles.
Once Bush collapsed our economy there was no way McCain was going to win, and now his widow and son are voting for Kamala Harris.
Just like Clinton and Biden, back in 2008 a Democrat had to come into office with their “Socialist” policies and save America.
The day after the 2008 election lots of white Republicans woke up in shock that a black boy was on his way to the White House. That shock eventually led to Donald Trump becoming the head of the GOP. A three time nominee that’s a convicted felon and rapist. Imagine what our friend Corey Gross would say if Kamala Harris had five children from three separate marriages or had been flying around on Epstein’s plane? The Republican Party would be collectively losing their minds.
But yet they have renominated their racist in chief. Actually the base of the Republicans created him in their hysteria and anger over their loss to Obama.
Trump will lose again if there is any justice in the world. Nice to see Liz Cheney come down on the side of democracy, something that is too often dismissed here as being in the “rear view mirror” and I wish her dad and George W. had her balls and would follow her example. They won’t because they’re really not patriots – simply because they obviously understand the threat but remain silent.
The Republicans who support Trump need to be wiped out this November if there is any chance of saving the Republican Party in the future. Dick and W could help with that, another failure of leadership.
So, I invite all Republicans to come out from behind their computers and step into the streets and help elect Kamala Harris to save the country and their party from a terrible autocratic racist end at the little hands of Donald Trump.
But, in the end, it will be up to us Socialists to deliver again.
I am not sure how to link it directly, but I was able to access a P1 thread from 9/9/08 “Tuesday News Update.”
back then, james was a whole lot more concerned about Obama winning than he is now about Harris. He was pretty adamant that Obama should have picked Hillary. Indeed, there was a huge sense that week that McCain/Palin (incumbent party) had all sorts of momentum, and then that would start to change in a big way two days later.
http://web.archive.org/web/20080914052058/http://www.politics1.com/blog-0908.htm#0909
Good hunting CG…..
I’m gonna be TRUTHFUL…..
I did NOT think Obama would be able to get elected as a Mixed/Black guy….
I was WRONG….
McCain WAS Joe Biden…
He did NOT have the ‘Winning at ANY cost’ thing…..
Like fine wine, cigars, and porn stars, James’ commentary has actually gotten better with age. Love him or hate him, the man deals in facts unlike some others.
First Cubs Wrigley Field n0-hitter since 1972!
Cubs never had a no-hitter until I was 30, and there have been six since.
The Mets and Jersey Giants are a story of heartaches
If anyone is actually going to work their way down that 2008 P1 thread, I definitely had an imposter in the late afternoon/early evening hours.
I am sure there is no connection, but the thread also includes the first documented appearance of SE.
Somebody named Corey remarked on 9/9 that McCain might actually win in a landslide. I am not sure if that was actually me or not.
He, he, he?????
Not sure?
Mercifully, the vast bulk of the threads I really ruined in late October through mid January were not preserved in the Wayback Machine. I am incomparably fortunate. You get a taste of it in some of those September threads, but nothing compared to what it became.
At some point, I’ll need to write a memoir about my many years as an edgelord/shitposter extraordinaire.
And yes, there were several Corey’s posting at that time as I recall.
The tenor of that entire thread was that Obama was in freefall and thanks to Sarah Palin becoming a superstar, McCain was headed to victory. He had started to have about a 5 point lead in the polls. Even all these years later, you can feel the panic that Democrats were having about Palin. I don’t think she really made all that much difference in the outcome of the election that year when all was said and done, but I also did not know she would seem to suffer some sort of psych0logical break from the pressure of that whole experience. In retrospect, definitely a bad idea to have picked her.
I was being labeled the “good cop” to Ethan’s bad cop by the Democrats. I think I later learned that Ethan was not a wealthy Florida businessman but some young guy in Brazil.
I think it was two days after this very fun for Republicans discussion thread that Lehman Brothers collapsed and McCain was sunk politically. Then, he did something really dumb like trying to postpone the first debate. Then, he was horrible in the debates. Yes, we should have gone with Romney in 2008. But as Ruben Gallego said recently, “John McCain was a patriot. Show some respect.” His son Jimmy is a Democrat now.
All of this shows how quickly things can turn around in Presidential politics. Compared to 16 years ago, I think things are more baked in and more static now, but still, it is bad idea for partisans of any party to start getting cocky… like we Republicans were on 9/9/08.
Things move faster now….
And McCain was in over his head….
Like Biden….
Both guys where/are NOTHING like Trump, who IS a brawler….
McCain hurt himself in the debates, in a way that may be similar to what makes people dislike Trump.
He did not act like a bully or interrupt or anything, but you could tell how much he disliked Obama at the moment. He would not even look at him. For whatever positive traits McCain had, he also had something that made him need to dislike his opponent, during the campaign, whomever it was.
Sorry to repeat ….
But McCain did NOT have the ‘Killer’ instinct that Trump has….
If you mean he was never going to call Obama a Muslim communist, that is correct.
Many Democrats showed less restraint running against McCain (and GWB and Romney), which is a big reason why we all wound up with Trump.
For the record, not that I think I need to actually explain this, but I do not believe Obama is a Muslim communist. I am just saying that is the sort of thing that Trump would try to put out there and and an honorable man like John McCain would not, and in fact shut it down famously at a town hall event..
I merely believe Obama is a Christian socialist.
Trump was the result of a LOUSY Hillary campaign and a reaction to WHO Obama was…
Hillary- lousy campaign, lousy candidate with severe ethical problems
Obama- popular personally, unpopular policies that people wanted change from after eight years.
And still, I maintain a lot of people voted for Trump to “send a message” not expecting him to win or even wanting him to win. They just wanted Hillary to know, “We are watching you!”, and look what happened.
Trump had a television Town Hall tonight and I did not see a second of it and I think I am a better person for it.
There’s something about how he is so excited to have (he thinks) the support of Patrick Mahomes’ wife and that it will cause Taylor Swift to endorse him.
I’ll check out the Trump show….
McCain just was running in a year when it was impossible to defeat the “:change” candidate. Regardless of which party is in power, Americans want “change” from time to time.
It is pretty remarkable that Harris trying to run now as the “change” candidate despite being the sitting Vice President and the nominee of a party that has held the White House for 12 of the last 16 years, and at least one branch of government for the last 18 years.
She IS moving to ‘Change’ several Biden admin policies….
Yeah, which are those? That’s a tough political sell.
Seems like she is talking about moving them to the left, in regards to capital gains tax. Democrats still have a problem in thinking the country is further to the left than it actually is, which is why so many people hold their nose and vote for Trump. At least she is not being the 2019 version of herself.
She is cutting back the tax the rich sell…
She supports Biden’s immigrationn policy….
She supports Biden Israel policy….
Her husband owns a gun…
She IS NOT moving to the left….
She is going to0 middle BETTER than Trump
Does Doug own a gun? Where did you hear that?
The point is she is running for a second Biden term, despite trying to be the “:change” candidate. That is pretty much what they have to try to do politically. They have to make the election a referendum on Trump and Trumpism. It’s just disingenuous to a point.
I have a hard time imagining Emhoff owns a gun. I have a hard time imagining any wealthy, Jewish lawyer from an urban area owning a gun.
This would be like Melania owning a faux fur coat.
She waiting for him to lose and get her divorce…
She HAS been among the missing
Every man’s born with a gun. I’m sure he doesn’t need it, and has beaten many a b1tch to death with his gun.
I meant Walz owns a gun….
He’s from the MNid West….
Emhoff was originally from Brooklyn, then Jersey…THEN California
She IS quietly putting space between her and Biden….
U ARE gtrying to do Trump’s thing of locking them together….
It won’t work…
Historical comparison to 2008 post in moderation.