Drone war continues….
F-16 Reality checks….
ISW Update ….Is Russia trying get Ukraine to keep busy with current actions to prevent a possible Ukraine Summer/Fall offence?
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The Ukrainian first lady, Olena Zelenska, has attended in Turkey the launch of the Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi, an anti-submarine warship newly built for Ukraine. Ukraine’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov, said: “Corvettes Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi and [previously launched] Hetman Ivan Mazepa, which were built in Turkey due to Russian aggression, are equipped with cutting-edge weapons and will become a significant addition to our fleet … Ukraine has already broken the dominance of the Russian fleet at sea, destroying dozens of ships. We are actively expanding the capabilities of the Ukrainian navy in the Black and Azov seas.” It is unclear when either warship will be able to reach Ukraine, because the Montreux convention generally prohibits warring parties’ battleships from entering or exiting the Black Sea via the Bosphorus, which Turkey controls.
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Russian-occupied Crimea came under attack from missiles and drones on Friday morning, according to reports. The Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said debris fell on the city. Explosions were heard in Saki where there is an airbase and in Yevpatoria, according to news sources including Crimean Wind, a Telegram channel that reliably reports on military activities on the peninsula. Kursk oblast inside Russia also came under air attack, said the governor, Alexey Smirnov.
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A mother and her daughter were killed by Russian shelling of Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine’s east, its governor said on Thursday. “They hit the city with a dozen shells,” said Serhiy Lysak, adding that private houses, a fire station, a college, a school and buses were damaged.
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The F-16 fighter jets that have started arriving in Ukraine will likely have three core missions, according to analyst Federico Borsari of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. They will seek to intercept Russian missiles and drones; suppress Russian air defences; and bomb Russian troops and ammunition depots. “They will be able to affect some of the dynamics [of the war],” Borsari says.
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In the air, the Ukrainian F-16s will be up against Russia’s formidable S-300 and S-400 mobile surface-to-air missile systems that can target multiple aircraft at a time. Russia’s military also has what are estimated to be several hundred operational fighter jets, as well as sophisticated air surveillance radars.
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A Shahed drone attack near Kyiv injured exiled Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomaryov, he said on Thursday. Ponomaryov, 48, fled to Ukraine and gained citizenship after opposing Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. “This thing blew in very forcefully, right in front of the threshold of the house, and loads of shrapnel flew into me,” Ponomaryov said. Until this week Ponomaryov headed the political wing of the Freedom of Russia Legion – ethnic Russians fighting on Ukraine’s side. It announced on Wednesday that it had unilaterally cut ties with Ponomaryov and no longer had a political wing.
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The Estonian government said on Thursday it would introduce full customs controls on its border with Russia to combat circumvention of sanctions. “The goods that allow [Russia] to wage war against Ukraine, undermine Europe’s and Estonia’s security shouldn’t be imported there,” said the Estonian prime minister, Kristen Michal. The finance minister, Jurgen Ligi, said: “Third countries are declared as [a] destination point, but we don’t believe it. And life has shown that these goods don’t reach the destination. This cargo includes really ugly things, both military and dual-use goods, large amounts of cash. It’s obvious that these are being smuggled through us.”
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The Ukrainian economy minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, arrived in Turkey on Thursday for talks on ratifying their free trade agreement and other economic cooperation. Turkey is among Ukraine’s top five trading partners and the agreement will cancel duties on a significant number of Ukrainian goods. The date of the ratification has not yet been determined by the Ukrainian parliament…..
The Aug. 1, 2024 Guardian summary….
More details on the F-16 operations….
(The air craft WILL demand attention and resources …)
The number of delivered F-16s appears to be small for now. The Times of London cited a source familiar with the matter who put the figure at just six aircraft.
That number is expected to grow, but it is far short of what military analysts say Ukraine needs more than 29 months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group, said at least 60 planes would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine attempts to push Russian aviation back from its borders.
Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, who leads Kyiv’s parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said that Ukraine would need nearer to 120 F-16s to boost its air capability significantly.
While the pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds out its air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield, some experts say.
“It will provide some air defence and depth capacity, potentially also help intercepting Shaheds [Iranian-built drones] and cruise missiles. Although it is a very expensive way of doing that, munitions-wise,” said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine’s military has worked hard to reduce the threat to the arriving F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defences, according to Kuzan.
“The formation of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already taking place,” he said. “Ukraine has the capabilities to systematically strike Russia’s foremost air defence complexes.”
Pilots and Maintenance
Training will be crucial. “You can have lots of fast jets but if they don’t have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers,” said Bronk.
The timeline for the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s has dominated discussions about deliveries and pledges of more than 70 jets.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly F-16s, Ustinova said.
“It is difficult to solicit more planes when you don’t have people to pilot them,” she said, adding that, at first, Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.
“Waiting in line for 10 years before our pilots are trained is not acceptable …
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Russia has intensified its attacks on infrastructure that could be used for the maintenance and deployment of F-16s, some experts said.
“Russia is striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, every day, including attempts to damage airstrips and infrastructure. These strikes have not paused for the last two months, at least,” Kuzan said.
The targets will become all the more valuable when the aircraft, pilots and maintenance teams arrive. This is likely to force Ukraine to install missile defences to protect them, even though it is short of both air defence systems and ammunition…..
Ukrainian Joint Forces and Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov stressed that Russia is pursuing an effort to force Ukraine to commit its available manpower to ongoing defensive operations in order to prevent the accumulation of Ukrainian resources for future counteroffensive operations