—North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else.
—Kamala Harris is actually polling slightly better in North Carolina than Georgia, but there are reasons to think she’ll still perform a little better in the latter (see Map 2 below).
—The relative ordering of the swing states does often change from election to election, and that has been the case for the key 7 states, for the most part, over the past 6 elections.
—Polling generally suggests a similar ordering of the states to 2020, although Republicans are polling better than one might expect in Nevada and Democrats better in Wisconsin, two states where presidential polling errors have not been uncommon recently.
Could Kamala Harris really win North Carolina — and lose Georgia?
The tale of the tape.
NATE SILVER
AUG 28, 2024
The hottest club in the Electoral College is North Carolina.
It’s the first state to begin any form of early voting — county officials will begin mailing out absentee ballots next week! The Cook Political Report just moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to “toss-up”. And in the Silver Bulletin model, it’s the third-most-likely tipping-point state, surpassed only by Pennsylvania and Michigan. If Kamala Harris wins it, she’ll have a 97 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. The probability nerds in the audience will note that it isn’t technically a “must-win state for Donald Trump — 3 percent chances happen — but close enough…
North Carolina is a big deal
More….
Worst case scenario, I think she wins both states.
I imagine both GA and NC will be close until Elevtion Day.
Right now I think Harris has the edge in both but NC could be sunk for Republicans thanks to their nutso candidate for Governor