Tight….But….Not a good look for Trump….
Will the final total have THAT many switching in down ballot voting?
SurveyUSA’s latest polling, conducted exclusively for Hight Point University, shows Harris taking 46% of the vote among all registered voters, Donald Trump taking 45%. 1% say they will vote for another candidate; 8% say they are undecided. Among those voters who say they are certain they will vote in November, Harris leads by 2 points, 48% to 46%; among those who say they will probably vote, Trump leads by 10, 50% to 40%. Combining certain and probable voters – how SurveyUSA traditionally defines “likely voters” – the race is tied: 47% Harris, 47% Trump. Whether the GOP convinces those less-than-certain “probable” voters – 12% of all registered voters &ndash to show up for the Trump-Vance ticket or whether the Democratic Party convinces them to stay home, vote third-party, or even switch to Harris-Walz may determine the outcome of the national contest.
Focusing on all registered voters, Trump leads by 3 points among men; Harris leads by 3 among women – a 6-point gender gap. Trump leads by 19 points among white voters; Harris leads by 65 points among Black voters, with Black women backing her by a 73-point margin, Black men by a 55-point margin. 27% of registered voters, a plurality, say improving economic conditions is the most important issue this year, and Trump leads by 23 points among those voters. Trump also leads by 27 points among those voters most focused on job creation (6% of all voters), by 62 points among the 11% most focused on managing immigration, and by 47 points among those who say the top issue is protecting the US from foreign threats, 8% of all registered voters. Those leads are offset by those of Harris: 72 points among those who say protecting democracy is most important (11% of all voters), 55 points among those focused on abortion laws (8% of voters), and 37 points among the 11% who say protecting Social Security and Medicare is most important…..