The difference between Biden and Harris in support is astounding…
Less than a month ago, Democrats faced a grim election landscape. President Joe Biden faced trouble with independents and his base, and former President Donald Trump looked set to return to the White House. The ticket switch that saw Biden withdraw and Harris ascend to the Democratic nomination has reset the race by every campaign measure.
While Harris has closed the gap at the topline level — in national polls, the race is essentially a dead heat — Harris has made eye-popping gains with traditional, core Democratic base voters while also appealing to independents, which is an incredibly difficult needle to thread, especially for a candidate whose favorability ratings were 15 points underwater before replacing Biden.
Harris has registered gains across a wide range of demographic categories, but the improvement has been especially pronounced among young voters, non-white voters and women voters. Taken together, the numbers suggest that the Harris swap has largely repaired a fraying Democratic coalition, has repaired the party’s image presidentially among independents, and has dragged the election back to a tossup, at the minimum. In short, she has managed to do something that every candidate can only dream of: appeal to her base without turning off swing voters….
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Perhaps the most overlooked — and yet critical — factor playing into Harris’ polling boom is that she has been able to achieve what is traditionally the trickiest task for most candidates: Firing up her base while making gains with independents.
The most telling indicator of increased base enthusiasm is that Harris has rapidly consolidated Democrats around her. Previously, Republicans were farmore united around Trump’s candidacy than Democrats were around Biden, but Harris’ entrance has fundamentally reshaped the equation. Harris has made 7 points worth of gains with Democrats in a relatively short period of time, a startling figure showing both the disaffection many Democrats felt toward Biden, as well as the newfound energy many of them are feeling with her. New polls suggest that both party nominees are now getting the same margins with their own party’s voters, with Harris winning Democrats by 89 points and Trump winning Republicans by 88 points.
Harris has achieved this without turning off independent voters. In fact, she has simultaneously managed to gain 9 percent with independents. Some of this may just have to do with the fact that she is substantially younger than Biden, which addresses one of the largest gripes voters appear to have had with the president’s candidacy prior to his dropping out. But it likely is also related to Harris’ own campaigning and candidacy.
Harris has made sure to take steps to distance herself from previous unpopular views that she voiced during the 2020 campaign, which has helped her redefine her image at the moment as a more moderate candidate. This has helped her resemble a “generic Democrat” in ways that she simply never did pre-dropout; as voters get to know her, they appear to not have major concerns, at least for now. There is time for this to change, but it appears as if her initial rollout has been highly successful….
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