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Early Voting begins in two weeks…Open Thread for 8/23/2024

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Yes…..

For Real…..

First Ballots Go Out in Two Weeks

Associated Press: “There are just over 70 days until Election Day on Nov. 5, but major dates, events and political developments will make it fly by. Think about it this way: The stretch between now and then is about as long as summer break from school in most parts of the country.”

“In just two weeks, Sept. 6, the first mail ballots get sent to voters. The first presidential debate is set for Sept. 10. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is scheduled to be sentenced in his New York hush money case on Sept. 18. And early in-person voting will start as soon as Sept. 20 in some states.”

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      • Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads/Insta)🌻
        @AWeissmann_
        Are we in the phase now where journalists, in a myopic scheme to show they are not biased, do the opposite and hold Harris to a far more exacting level of scrutiny than Trump? Ignoring that one candidate is not a convicted criminal, liable for fraud, sexual assault and defamation, and a demonstrable danger to others and democracy?

    • Why Kamala Harris Can Run as an Insurgent

      This is from Taegan Goddard:

      Kamala Harris is having it both ways as she simultaneously takes credit for the Biden-Harris record while casting herself as a new leader who “won’t go back.” She seems to be using two competing messages, much to the frustration of Donald Trump and Republicans.

      Here’s why she can pull it off:

      Trump was already president for four years. Everything Harris wants to turn the page on — the hate, the chaos and the whining — are his direct legacy.

      Aside from a brief period after the January 6 riots, Trump never really went away.

      Harris, as a woman of color, is much different messenger than the norm.

      Implicit in Harris’ campaign is the message that if she wins, Trump will finally be done.

      Harris holds a unique advantage that we’ve never seen before in our politics. She can hold rallies in front of Air Force Two while waving a “change” banner.

      Polls have shown that Americans are thirsting for a new and more optimistic politics.

      If Harris can convince voters that she “won’t go back,” then she will likely win this election……..

      More….

      I agree. Can we pull it off? I would rather be Kamala at this point than Trump that’s for sure.

      The organization and enthusiasm at and after the convention was incredible. An almost flawless campaign to this point. This is beginning to feel like 2008 to me, but I will wait until October to make any predictions. But my little on-line fundraiser went over 50K last Thursday before I had time to make my Friday calls. Everyone I know is actually stepping out and doing something.

      Won’t be here very much, too busy, and I really don’t want to deal with the snark we had when the last person of color ran for President.

      Have a good day everyone!

      • Thank You….

        Keith….

        Any time u can drop in IS appreciated….

        We have the wind at our back….

        We have to keep sailing over the finish line….

      • Republicans dug this hole themselves by nominating the person who was in charge during the worst year in recent American history. They can’t ask Reagans classic question “are you better off now than you were 4 years ago”. But they also can’t completely turn the page as their Dear Leader demands they speak highly of his term in office.

        The result is a confusing command that voters look wistful upon the years 2017-2019 and completely ignore the shitshow of Feb 2020 to Jan 2021. And even that window in time saw Amercans reject Republican control of the House in 2018.

        • Yup……

          They let themselves be captured by a lying, egomaniac, crook……

          He’s not in trouble

          I can’t wait for the reporting of people jumping ship

    • Trump & Co. ARE getting ‘cease and desist ‘ letter left and right from music companies…..

  3. Trump went on X and called himself and RFK Jr a “ticket”.
    So is Vance getting fired or does he have more of a Jan 6 type replacement plan for Donut Boy?

  4. Tulsi Gabbard has endorsed Donald Trump.

    I mean,

    Wow!

    Who is Marianne Williamson going to endorse?

        • You should stop using the term “GOP” to refer to the current Republican Party. The Trump folks never use it. They consider that identification of the “old” party to be gone.

          It either truly is or it is dormant. The term does not apply today.

          • No more Grand ole’ Party?

            Just Donald Trump’s MAGA party?

            Leads me to this question

            When Trump LOSES and turns his back on the idiots that believed his bull shit?

            What do they Do?

            MAGA IS SOLELY TRUMP

            And don’t give a rats ass about his followers

            • Trump says he’d vote for abortion rights in Florida and is promising IVF paid for by the government or insurance companies.

              So I guess Republicans are OK with govt run health care–for the purposes or breeding at least.

              Expect “clarifications” on both in coming days.

              • Some say this could depress far right fundagelical turnout.

                Or not. I don’t think abortion was the real reason they voted for Trump. Far more sinister reasons than that.

                • The Supreme’s messed up on this one

                  The support for abortion and birth control transcends the separation of parties and male/female voting……

                  Trump has shopped his Johnson around and probably has benefited from the procedure…

                  We’ll see how his followers take this

                  But he’s scrambling right now

                  He KNOWS HE’S LOSING……

    • I see NO REASON why Harris should be in a hurry to sit down and do a media Q & A…..,

      Those things just result in negative after affects

      That goes for Trump and Biden

      It creates a media feeling frenzy

      • Absolute best case scenario, I can see Democrats jacking 109 House seats. Well see if that pans out. Certainly likelier than Republicans keeping the majority.

        • 110 counting the filling of the late Bill Pascrell’s seat in NJ. Also factoring in the flip of the open Wisconsin seat in the upcoming Special Election.

          • Also to be filled are the seats of Jackson Lee in Texas and Payne in New Jersey.

            My math isn’t right. Accidentally deducted from the lower number, which is the Democrats. 221-214 with incumbent parties allocated. Or a flip of 119 seats in the House best case scenario for us.

              • We will see how the next 2+ months play out. The last time we’ve seen this much excitement for a Presidential candidate from California, Ronald Reagan was delivering a generational blowout to both Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale.

                And to rub the salt in, Harris could win SC and deliver a break even R/D Congressional Delegation.

                • “Break even” my hide end. Forgot Clyburn’s seat. The Senator’s, Fry, and the northwestern seat make 4 to the D’s 5.

                  I’m not going to be bull headed about this. I concede there’s a shite ton of room for error in my end of August look at the races.

                • SE?

                  If they call SC FOR Harris?

                  We can start celebrating 10 seconds later……

                  She would have a Win

  7. What is my “best case scenario” for Democrats?

    President:

    Electoral College 491-47 Harris
    Popular Vote 57-39 Harris
    Raw votes, Haris over Trump around 105 million to 73 million

    House: 333-102 D
    Senate: 56-44 D
    Governors: 27-23 D

  9. “Dana, this may be TMI, but when President Biden called me that Sunday, I was actually outside fracking….”

    Get ready Maya Rudolph!

  10. Seriously though, Kamala flipping pancakes and frying bacon for her nieces, next to an unfinished puzzle, when Biden calls her and tells her she is the Boss now, is a Sopranos level allegory.

    • CG?

      Right the tables have turned

      Bull shit past stuff isn’t working against Walz or Harris

      They ARE riding the media wave Trump had the last 3 years

  14. Trumps latest desperate plea is to channel RFK Jr on the ills of processed foods . Promising to “Make America Healthy Again”. Yup. The guy whose blood type is KFC is ranting against unhealthy food.

        • Democrats Go After ‘Useful Idiot’ Jill Stein

          “After ten months of almost completely ignoring Jill Stein’s impossibly long-shot presidential bill, the Democratic party is now actively trying to bury her,” The Bulwark reports.

          “On Monday, the DNC labeled the Green party presidential nominee a ‘useful idiot for Russia,’ citing Stein’s upcoming event in Tampa in which she’s expected to lend her support to three members of a black leftist group federally charged for allegedly acting as malign foreign agents of Vladimir Putin’s government.”

          “It is the first time that the party has name-checked Stein since she launched her White House bid in November 2023—part of an effort to disqualify her in hopes of limiting the votes third party candidates siphon away from Kamala Harris.”

    • I saw that piece…….

      The basic that seems to be forgotten IS a poll is just a measurement of a group of people at a given time…..

      All sorts of variables are involved in the final results which go thru tinkering….

      As in most things in life?

      It Is imprecise….

      Oh?

      And it helps the media do their horse race election coverage….

      • No he’s not.

        Neither is Harris.

        It’s very close and right now is a classic tossup.

        Once again you’re projecting what you want to be and trying to make the facts fit your desires.

        • Jack?

          Harris CLEARLY LEADS in the National polling averages across the board…..

          I have posted Electoral College forecast averages as recent as today….

          Polling IS imperfect and fleeting
          But RIGHT NOW?

          It may be close
          But Kamala Harris and Tim Walz ARE AHEAD
          She LEADS THERE ALSO…..

          It 62 days out

          Voting begins soon

    • I will actually make some case for how those 3 keys he had going for Trump are actually a wash or benefitting Harris.

      “Party Lost House Seats in the Midterms”: Republicans saw muted gains in the House compared to historical averages, and would have lost outright if it weren’t for localized Democratic underperformance in California and New York thanks to the unique unpopularity of Newsom and Cuomo/Hochul. Democrats also gained a Senate seat, contrary to historical averages. Republicans have a brand problem, to put it mildly.

      “Sitting President Who is Running for Re-election”: After the debate, the incumbency factor with Biden was more of a negative than a positive. People writ large feel less hopeless in the current match-up than they did when is was a rematch of 2020. If anything, it redounds slightly to Harris’ benefit.

      “A Uniquely Inspirational, Once in a Generation Candidate”: OK, I’ll flat out disagree with Lichtman in this one. Kamala Harris may not be a Barack Obama, but she is no less an inspirational and once in a generation candidate. The reality of the first woman President is not something to just write off on technicalities. And most decisively, based on this plus the clean break from Biden’s perceived shortcomings, she has a surge of enthusiasm vaulting her campaign towards the finish line in ways Hillary Clinton did not.

      • Presidential incumbency has, over the last eight decades, worked both ways: positively (“stay the course”) after the first term and (apparently) negatively (“time for a change”) at the end of the second. So by itself it’s not that useful an indicator.

        Between 1952 and 2020, there were only three party holds in the White House that were not eight years (first election as out party and second as in party) — counting Electoral College victories rather than popular ones. Following this pattern, incumbency favours Harris:

        1952-56 R
        1960-64 D
        1968 – 72 R
        1976 D (1 term>
        1980-88 R (3 terms)
        1992- 96 D
        2000-2004 R
        2008-2012 D
        2016 R (1 term)
        2020 ?

        • By the way, this was far from the pattern before 1948:

          3 Fed
          6 D-R
          1 pre-Whig
          3 D
          1 Whig
          1 D
          1 Whig
          2 D
          6 R
          1 D
          1 R
          1 D
          4 R
          2 D
          3 R
          5 D

  20. James, I think it is time to write your memoir. I’m thinking with your life as a “Political Dog,” you could fill out a two thousand page book with all manner of musings, observations, predictions, and life lessons.

    “The Blogfather: The Life of a Political Dog” by James B. Finley, the most cited man in the English language

  21. I’ll stay true to posting news and any insights I have. Won’t get into it any further with others, to the extent that I have of late. Self control is a virtue.

    Like CG does with the old P1 threads, I went back and re-read what all I could find from PolDog’s previous incarnations. Mercifully, I couldn’t find the virulently homophobic editorial I wrote. But I read a heaping dose of my own haymakers, general ghastliness, and high sanctimony. Humbling. At this point, people are more than entitled to their views of me.

    • Morning

      New NY Times Sienna has Harris/Trump Trump leading by 1

      Harris still leads in the average

      Is it on point or a outlier?

    • She IS just cruising along…..
      Staying away from the media and throwing jabs at Trump who is just babbling along

      That said?
      Harris needs a good debate
      Or even just to get thru without screwing up

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