The election is Three and a half months away and it’s like ALL. I hear from people is ‘Trump’s Gonna Win’…..
Polling actually has the race close
Bit ya never know it
Jonathan Chait: “Earlier this year, I wrote a long story arguing that the dominant mood of the American political scene is the exhaustion of the anti-Trump coalition. While Donald Trump’s will to power, and that of his allies, burns hotter than ever, his opponents have slunk into resignation and despair.”
“I reiterated the theme in a column last week, suggesting the Democrats were prepared to essentially abdicate the presidency rather than undertake the difficult and painful work of confronting and replacing a candidate they believe can’t win.”
“This is a very strange explanation for political events — so strange I’ve often questioned my own thinking. Political parties exist in order to win. Sometimes they sacrifice their chances of winning to pursue other political goals (say, advocating an unpopular position they consider important). But the political-science models I learned as an undergraduate generally assume they are attempting to maximize their power in one form or another. There’s no factor in any model I know of to account for a party simply giving up.”
“Yet a raft of new reports this weekend suggest precisely that.
The very point of this article is that Democrats are giving up by not replacing Biden. In order to beat Trump, they have to go with a different candidate. As has been pointed out, and especially after the debate, I agree. This is also not even taking into consideration that leaving Trump completely out of the conversation, it is not at all honest to ask Americans to vote for Biden to serve until 2029.
While it may be near insanity to choose to stay the course and hope things will work out, despite all the evidence to the contrary, I also just have a hunch there is going to be at least one thing before Election Day that will happen which will be big and unexpected
Oh I think there will be several.
Indeed there is around a 30% or so chance that Biden may have a major health event or a Mitch McConnell type unexplained silence.
The gaffes will continue.
The ramblings will too.
It’s going to be a sorry spectacle.
Meanwhile the always wrong James has confidently predicted that Biden is getting “ better.”
I think SE pointed out that Biden has “ good” days and “ bad” days.Such is the norm for people in the eighties.
Jack?
Donald J Trump IS a 78 year old man thst has be shot in the ear…..
He just got convicted of crimes…..
If you don’t think his mental and physical body is hurting?
Your fooling yourself ….
You think being shot in the ear is damaging to him even personally or politically?
Trump has been having a better month than Taylor Swift. Open your eyes.
She makes a shitload MORE money and don’t worry about being shot at
She probably has better se.curity.
She doesn’t need BETTER security
People LIKE HER
She has actually had many threats and has been involved in legal cases regarding related matters.
But her die-hard fans may be as mad as MAGA in how they go after critics.
She doesn’t owe $850 Million in civil fines
Trump might send the Justice Department after Taylor Swift, if she doesn’t endorse him.
Right now, it looks like he will have the chance.
Again with this filter…
Taylor Swift is probably better protected.
His person……..
His person seems just fine. He couldn’t have planned Saturday any better! (and many people think he did. When I first saw it, it looked like a WWE shoot, but tragically it was not)
Just ONE CG?
Nope
More than ONE….
It’s not really a major point but it seems like the incidents that McConnell had several months ago can be explained.
We knew he had fallen a short time earlier and suffered a concussion and that his two public “freezes” may have related to a post-complication of that, along with dehydration or having not eaten all day in one circumstance. He felt like he was about to faint and instead just stood still until the moment passed. McConnell is clearly aging physically, and is said to be sensitive about that, but when he speaks, he appears to be the same cognitively that he always was. I understand he was booed at the convention today when he announced Kentucky’s votes for Trump.
Maybe so but I’ve known many people in their eighties who suffer similar episodes as McConnell.
Indeed George Clooney mentioned that Biden in fact suffered several awkward silences at that event that led to him advocating Bidens withdrawal.
Others ,who were there, have confirmed much of what Clooney talked about after the event.
The real point though is that,in my view, to believe that Biden is now “ better’ and what happened previously was some kind of aberration and everything will now be ok?
Is naive in the extreme.
I can see Biden being in the moment on the trail invigorated by friendly crowds cheering for him at rallies or the immediacy of fighting for his own political survival but there are clearly fundamental issues he cannot get past with the American public. For whatever anyone thinks of his “record” (and he has historically low job approval numbers for someone seeking a second term), people are just not going to consider him as someone who could be President for an additional two years or three years, etc..
Biden HAS a stutter……
Biden had ALWAYS been in the background…..
He is NOT Good speaker
He has been a good president….
The problem IS having the job and doing good is NOT what the campaign is about
U guys are right in this
Joe Biden & Co thought that voters would be smart enough to see Trump as a fuckup
But for 50% of people in the current polls?
Nope
They’ll take the crooked, sexual predator who talked off the wall BEFORE he got shot …
yeah, that’s what the issue is now, a “stutter.” Ignore the decades of video of him speaking prior to that past couple years and especially the last few months. The issue is nothing more than his childhood stutter.
Never said he was a good speaker
He ain’t…….
But a Good president
Yup
His OPTICS Suck
Biden was considered a good speaker actually. (when he was not plagiarizing speeches.) A lot of people felt he was a blowhard, but he definitely knew how to speak and he loved the attention he got for it. Something has changed that is beyond “optics.”
And you may think he is a good President. Many Democrats swear that he is, but if you look at the polls, long before the debate, most Americans just do not.
Most reviews from across the spectrum felt that Biden’s 2012 convention speech was stronger than Obama’s. He performed better (though in a Trump like jerky matter) in the debate that year.
Now, he says he cannot speak like he used to or debate like he used to. That is clear, but when you say that, people are going to assume that he cannot negotiate with Congress like he used to or deal with foreign adversaries like he used to. He has admitted he is past his prime, but refuses to get off the stage.
Actually?
I like his digging in
He STILL polls BETTER than Harris against Trump
You are not considered a serious person in this context. You view politics as a sport and not reality.
Every one had different views CG…..
Every day hundreds tune in for ours here
Sometimes we’re serious
Sometimes not
Biden NEVER was a Good speaker
One of my posts has a linked piece that confirms this
I think Biden IS A Good President certainly MILES BETTER than Trump
When Biden first ran for President in 1987, the political narrative around him was that he was one of the best orators in the party (perhaps only behind Cuomo or Jesse Jackson).
Then in that campaign, it was revealed that he was stealing speeches from RFK and the British Labour Party leader.
The old guys atop the ticket, neither of whom could likely serve another term, aren’t that important. The race is essentially a proxy fight between Harris and Vance.
That’s the problem, in the eyes of the persuadable voter. Nobody is going to vote for a candidate thinking “well, if they die in office, there will be a big funeral and this other person will take over.” They would be far better off just nominating Harris (not that she would be the strongest alternative) and letting her prosecute the political case against Trump..and Vance. Persuadable voters are just not going to be listening to Biden anymore, even if they might even like him personally.
Trump is an obese 78 year old man who rambles on about sharks and electric boats. He could stroke out, have a coronary or drop dead at any time.
and yet he is winning, because so many people view the other guy being President for another term as scarier.
If Biden were to be replaced by someone significantly younger than Trump, Democrats could immediately begin their Electric Shark Boat counter-tour.
If Biden were to step aside for Harris (something I think should happrn) would you vote for her CG?
If that is what it takes to get him to do the right thing, then yes, I will force myself to vote for her against Trump in Illinois.. Let him know in case that gets him to change his mind.
That you–someone who voted for Alan Fucking Keyes–would have to “force yourself” to vote for Kamala Harris over two direct threats to democracy tells me all I need to know.
You are a jester. Not a serious person.
That you feel a sense of superiority on here and mock the host at every turn is just kind of sad.
I answered your question. I said I would vote for Harris over Trump. Nothing is ever good enough for you Scott. You need to find a reason to “hate” but I am not your therapist.
Yes, it would be very difficult for me. I am a conservative. On many matters, the Harris agenda would be completely opposed to my views about what is good for America. Same with how I voted for Biden in 2020. After four years of the two of them in office, I have far more reason to doubt they are good for America. As you should know by now though, I support any lawful, Constitutional effort to keep Trump out of office.
People disagree in this country. I wish you would understand that. It’s far easier to just be a tribalist button-pusher like you and those who wear red hats on the other side, who find any rationale to suspend their conscience to just be part of a team and not have to think. I suppose you should be happy that things like that are so easy for you.
It’s “easy” for me because there are people I love whose rights would be taken away or marginalized.
Maybe that’s something that has never occurred to you.
As for “hate” you might want to examine your comments aimed at James on here.
I wouldn’t go so far as to call them bullying but they definitely are obsessive.
james is fond of me. He has told me that. I have reasons to be angry and frustrated at him, as does most everyone here, but he also knows that he has a real obsessed person out and I have taken steps, away from here, to reach out to him and try to alert him to situations, and to provide information regarding that person, so that it might keep him and his family as safe as possible.
Just as it was easy for me to support Republicans because I believed in them and what they stood for. You feel the same way about your party. That is fine. I fear about the rights and safeties and marginalization of people in this country and around the world, for different reasons, as it relates to what is going on in both parties these days.
When my party changed, I did not go along with it. There is nothing easy about seeing a party that you believed in leave you. You may not have experienced and may not ever experience it, but if you ever did, you may understand why it is not easy.
I disagree with CG and think his ideas, to put it charitably, leave a lot to be desired. Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois Republicans haven’t often put up their best candidates(sans Topinika and Mark Kirk) in the last quarter century, but you make do with the options you have like I do with the weak bench D’s have in GA. Being derided as a “jester” by a common street drunk is beyond the pale. He does try to be serious for the most part.
And while James maybe shouldn’t be the topic of as many comments as he is, it is fair to say he has opened himself up to those characterizations several times. Personally, he lets me post, so I’m not going to say much about it. I’m just grateful. Why the loose cannon who will remain unnamed is obsessed with James(and he somehow got my email address a year ago and sent me a bunch of legal stuff about him and his sons) I can’t say. Maybe James has higher standards than even Ron Gunzburger?
Biden’s interview with Lester Holt from today has now aired. It was not stellar but people can make their own conclusions if they have seen any or all of it.
Immediately after though, CNN and MSNBC are back to talking about “yes, Democrats are still deep in discussion about how to get Biden to drop out” and discussing horrific polling data they are continuing to receive as it might relate to the entire party in this election.
I ‘LIKE’ ALL the regulars here…..
I do NOT agree with them all the time….
But I have worked this place since 2009 because we SHARE ideas, views and contrases here…
We’;re political junkies and I would think proud of it….
As for the Holt interview?
This IS Trump and the GOPer’s week….
As for Biden?
The media just wants him to do what they want….
To QUIT…..
BTW?
The polls are still fairly close
Apparently, they are close in blue states they have no business being close in.
Severe weather in Chicago has knocked network coverage of the convention off the air in this blue area. Tornado warnings now. I will probably lose power sometime tonight.
Non stop blue Emergency Alert System on television. No way to see anything else.
Project 2025 is supposed to get rid of this system. I wonder if this is payback.
In EACH state the Democratic Senator LEADS….
I find it hard to see people voting for a Democratic Senator ….
Then voting FOR Trump?
It just doesn’t sound/seem right?
It literally makes perfect sense. Biden is a weak candidate, and if things get worse in the homestrech, the other Democrats will be hurt.
Got tv back for now. Head of the Teamsters Union is now addressing the convention.
Shouldn’t he be fighting Senator Markwayne Mullin as part of the event?
Ten.. 10 active tornadoes in Chicagoland right now.
The Lord must be sparing Milwaukee and Donald J. Trump.
NBA Enthusiast
@NBAEnthusiast__
Reports coming through that the tornado has grazed the right antenna of the Trump tower. Direct hit avoided
9:56 PM · Jul 15, 2024
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Rep.Adam Schiff says Democrats will lose both houses of Congress if Biden remains the candidate .