Looking past the push to get Biden to drop out is the question….
Vice President Kamala Harris?
From Nate Silver who has urging a Biden dropout for quite some time BEFORE Biden’s loss debate performance…..
The look is extensive….
With the Good and Bad…..
On average, Harris trails Trump by 2.9 points. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it’s the exact same margin by which Biden trails Trump in our average. This is, however, a change from before: until recently, Harris had been underperforming Biden in polls against Trump. Now she’s caught up with him — or maybe better said, he’s fallen off the lead lap and back to her level.
There are two other things to note in this data. One is that only a few of the pollsters that tested Harris also put third-party candidates like RFK Jr. on the ballot. That’s a mistake, in my view, because one of the risks Democrats face in nominating Biden is that voters will be so fed up with both their choices that they’ll vote third-party or sit the election out. If Harris can capture some RFK Jr. voters that Biden doesn’t, that’s relevant info.
Also, there’s a fair bit of variation from poll to poll — as you can see, there’s everything from a Harris +2 to a Trump + 11 in the recent data. I don’t know exactly why there’s more variation in Harris’s polling than Biden’s — but it speaks to a theme of how there’s greater uncertainty surrounding Harris, something that’s actually a good thing for Democrats if the alternative is a race they’re probably going to lose…
image….ABC News Disney Co.