The change in candidates HAS changed the race…..
Trump and Republicans do NOT have Joe Biden to kick around anymore….
Kamala Harris is inching past Donald Trump in National Polls and closing on him in state voting polls….
Mark McKinnon: “In politics, as in sports (and life), there is enormous power in being underestimated. It can be a kind of superpower. And I have a strong feeling that Donald Trump and the Republican Party have only begun to experience the potentially fatal consequences of underestimating Kamala Harris.”
“Many in the GOP leadership believed that they were on the verge of crushing what little political life remained in Joe Biden. Then, as the president dropped out of the race, Trump’s campaign strategists appeared to jump to the conclusion that Harris was the second-best thing. In their fever dreams, Harris was seen as a weak candidate who’d had everything in life handed to her on a DEI plate. Who reflected the most liberal dreams of San Francisco ‘radicals.’ Who was kind of ‘out there.’ (Note to Republicans: Check out Exhibit A, one J.D. Vance.)”
“But in politics, preconceptions can bite you pretty quickly. Harris has come out of the box roaring like a lion and is already blowing away expectations in terms of her personality, her performance, her discipline, her poll numbers, and her fundraising. And while observers have raised doubts about her management skills—and contend that she can be thin-skinned and overly defensive at times—I can assure you of one thing: Weak, she is not. And that’s key.”
Brian Beutler: “According to the most recent ABC/Ipsos poll, Kamala Harris’s favorability was 11 points underwater until she became the presumptive Democratic nominee, at which point her popularity spiked to 43-42, giving the party a popular standard-bearer for the first time in three years. Trump, meanwhile, ended his convention where Harris began, 11 points underwater (not bad for him, actually) but ended the week seven points less popular than he started, a catastrophic 36-52. Less than a quarter of the public views his running mate, JD Vance, favorably.”
“If Republicans aren’t now just as desperate as Democrats were one month ago, they probably will be if and when the dust settles and Harris enjoys a meaningful lead.”
Nate Silver‘s latest forecast finds Kamala Harris is a slight favorite over Donald Trump to win the popular vote, 54% to 46%.
However, she’s a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, 38% to 61%.
Key takeaway: “If an election were held today, we’d enter the evening with a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, both because the polling in the pivotal Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) has been close since Biden dropped out of the race and because there’s some intrinsic uncertainty about where the race stands given how much news there’s been lately.”
And a caveat: “This number may bounce around some because there hasn’t been all that much high-quality state polling since Biden dropped out.”
image….NY Times
New Open Thread is HERE….
Morning……….
This morning’s RCP polling read is a VERY GOOD feeling for Democrats and a VERY BAD feeling for Trump and Republicans….
In 2021 JD Vance said “we have to go to war” against the idea that women can decide not to have children.
A friend of mine who is a childless generally libertarian leaning Republican has some choice words about Vance when I saw him last night. None of them good.
This guy is the WORST VP pick in history.
Harris juices up voter turnout and THAT favors Democrats….
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
I wouldn’t be shocked by record turnout in 2024. In a major turnaround from pre-Biden dropping out, more voters now say they’re almost certain to vote than at this point in 2020.
Why? Folks actually like their choices for president. The “double-hater” % has dropped significantly
Trump IS losing all kinds of support….
Fred Trump III, former president Trump’s nephew, said Tuesday that he plans to vote for Vice President Harris, going against his family.
“I believe in policy over politics, and without question, Kamala Harris’s policies are what I get behind,” he said in an interview on “The View.” “So I will be voting for Kamala Harris.”
More…
Vance is likely to miss a vote in the Senate this week renewing a child tax credit. A typical Republican, you must have the child, but fuck it after it’s born. Sorry JD (or whatever his name is) can’t be bothered.
Time is running out for the Republican Great White Hope to replace this a-hole on the ticket.
In 1972 when VP candidate Tom Eagleton was dropped from the ticket McGovern got turned down 6 times before he found someone who would agree to join his losing ticket.
I doubt history will repeat itself if f they drop Vance I’m sure some GOP bootlicker will jump at the chance to be VP.
Hell Tim Scott’s wedding might still be on!
Yes Scott, we take bets if Tim Scott does walk down that aisle before he walks into a gay bar.
Very progressive of South Carolina to have two gay Senators.
Time is running out to replace Vance, but after the interview he gave doubling down on single woman he should be replaced.
Actually my husband has done extensive work with Burgum and was afraid he would be picked because he’s an effective conservative. Something today’s GOP is missing.
I still think it’s an outside chance Vance gers yanked.
Still only 1 in 3 chances that happens in the next week. After that I doubt it happens at all.
Vance is not going to be replaced. He definitely is not helping the ticket and I do not blame Democrats for talking about him, but talking so much about him is mostly a motivating factor for those who already decided to vote against Trump.
I am sure Trump is aware that Vance is getting “bad press.” Is he upset by that? I think Trump would actually be more upset if Vance was getting “good press” and having people think he is better than Trump.
From listening to The Bulwark podcast the JD Vance comments on “childless psycopaths” has a lot of traction with independent voters in focus groups.
Agreed on the Trump wanting the ‘ Spotlight ’
He ain’t right now
Morning Folks!
It’s fun to be a Democrat Again❗️😆
All Americans should be happy today for the release of the two prisoners being held in Russia.
Another win for the Biden Administration and likely proof that Putin has lost faith that his buddy Trunp will be going back to the White House.
It is….
But according to North Dakota Gov. Doug Burghum ,who was said to be Trumps personal favorite for his VP running mate, the Russians acted because they were scared Trump is going be elected.He then made some inartfully crafted remarks that implied the Biden Administration though so too.
There’s humor there somewhere.
And unsurprisingly,Trumps lapdog Jed Vance,echoed Burgum.
I have been wondering why some enteterpring individual has not taken the tune of “ The ballad of Jed Clampett” from the old 60s comedy “The Beverly Hillbillies “ and used new lyrics applicable to Vance.In the series Jed was sometime referred to as J D Clampett.
Then one day he was shooting for some food,
And up through the ground come a bubbling crude
(Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea)
Well the first thing you know old Jed’s a millionaire…
Drill, baby, drill….
You want to take a shot at some new lyrics DSD?🤣
Ellie May was a childless opossum lady.
A friend of mine pointed out that prior to Vance the last elected official he was aware of with those initials was Boss Hogg on The Dukes of Hazard.
Jefferson Davis (JD) Hogg.
Beverly …Back in the Day….
We may be seeing a debate between John David (formerly John Donald) Vance and Joshua David Shapiro.
Both of whom hold JD degrees.
So,rry, its not Jo,hn Dav,id, but James Davis , once James Donald. Donald Jo.hn is someone else on the ticket.
I have a hard enough time figu,ring out how Jay Robert Pritz,ker became JB.
I never watched re-runs of Beverly Hillbillies, but from what I recall, the actress who played the presumed lesbian bank executive on the show, went on to run for Congress as a Democrat. Buddy Ebsen, who played Jed, did tv ads for her opponent.
We ARE showing out age here…..
Yes, and I am younger than all… except for Ghost.
What an amazing and happy night for America. Tremendous pride in seeing Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, and Alsu Kurmasheva return to America and to freedom, and be re-uinted with their families.
Gloria Johnson, the white legislator in the “Tennessee Three,” won her Senate Primary. I am optimistic she can pose a real challenge to Blackburn.
In Nashville, far right Congressman Andy Ogles won by a much lesser than expected margin against an unheralded challenger from his right. Another ripe target for House Democrats, plus the Knoxville and Chattanooga based seats, in November.
Morning Folks………
Things get worse for Trump by the day
“Big” Development-
Kyle Rittenhouse has abandoned Donald Trump and said he will now write in Ron Paul for President. MAGA is freaking out.
Wow. When you’ve lost a psychotic little shit like Kyle Rittenhouse…
Update!
Even though he said “no takebacks”, Rittenhouse took it back and endorsed Trump again. Wow, what did they threaten him with?
I’m reminded of all the Republicans who unemdorsed Trump after Access Hollywood in 2016. Only to come slinking back by election day.
Something happened to Kyle over the course of 12 hours.
I think Kimberly Guilfoyle was dispatched to cast a demonic possession on him.
or it was made very clear to him that the next time he killed a guy, he was on his own.
And Ron Paul over an actual living Libertarian Party nominee.
technically, Ron Paul is still alive.
My mistake. I was thinking Ron Paul had passed. Still alive in his late 80s.
Almost stroked out on a live feed 4 years ago.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/ron-paul-hospital.html
Leave the guy alone 😌
He, he, he
Morning………
Trump says he’ll debate on Fox
What does Harris do?
Trump also wants a audience he can play to to help his sorry ass
You mean the so called “ news” network that paid three quarters of a BILLION dollars for making up out of whole cloth a blatant LIE about “ rigged” voting machines to assist The Rapist in his wholly made up “ stolen” election fantasy?
Uh if I were Harris I would be very leery of anything connected with this MAGA enterprise and its “ reporters.”
I agree Jack
But Trump & Co WILL work a ‘NO’ against her
Harris has to be smart on this…….
The new Obama people coming on board IS good and important
How do you propose she be “ smart on this?”
In fact Jack?
She HAS BEEN…….
Her people say no ABC debate ?
No Fox debate
And Trump it appears HAS said no ABC debate
It seems to be heading to NO 2024 Presidential Debates……
And Harris KEEPS saying the guy is ‘scared ‘
Trump NOW has a strong opponent
Oh so she was already being “ smart “which makes your original remark irrelevant.
Typical.
Her staff response…….
Of course YOU knew she had the answer baked in?
Of course!
U the ALL KNOWING 🙄
NOT!
He, he, he
Seriously?
Trump & Co seem to be upended by the switch in candidates……
And they’re lost their media tail wind
Added to this is Trump’s Jan. 6 case hovering in the background….
Silliness
With the news of Aerosmith
calling it quits, Ultimate Classic Rock revisits the band’s final concert in September of last year on Long Island. https://ultimateclassicrock.com/aerosmith-final-concert/
Harris campaign adviser David Plouffe…
“…he (Trump) seems only comfortable in a cocoon,asking his happy place Fox to host a Trump rally and call it a debate.”
Adding Obama old hands IS a VERY….VERY Serious and SMART THING….
This IS FOR REAL…….
Affecting 330 Million and the rest of Planet….
Obama people been there TWICE with Home Runs!
And Yes……
Gonna be hard feelings amongst the Harris people getting shoved aside…..
But there is TOO MUCH at stake
Ego’s need to be packed aside
Trump is now saying he will ONLY debate on Fox with a peanut gallery of Trump cultists to cheer him on.
Emhoff Admits to Affair During First Marriage
Vice President Kamala Harris’s husband Doug Emhoff acknowledged that he had an affair during his first marriage after the alleged details of the relationship were published by a British tabloid, CNN reports.
Said Emhoff: “During my first marriage, Kerstin and I went through some tough times on account of my actions. I took responsibility, and in the years since, we worked through things as a family and have come out stronger on the other side.”
I reply ?
For ALL the noise about Doug Emhoff?
Let me see?
3 Marriages?
How much in ‘money to silence women?
How many actual lawsuits?
How much owed to EJ Carroll?
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I think Harris is gonna win. I don’t think it’s gonna be close… Maybe Oct 20th it’s just gonna fall apart for Trump.”
— Former GOP strategist Stuart Stevens, quoted by the New Republic.
just the time for an October Surprise…
… (probably delivered by Netanyahu).
Morning……..
It won’t wait until October over there
BTW????
Sen. Tim Scott marries interior designer Mindy Noce in South Carolina wedding ceremony
Sen. Tim Scott is no longer a bachelor!
Scott, 58, married interior designer Mindy Noce, 47, during an intimate ceremony at their hometown chapel Seacoast Church in Mount Pleasant, SC on Saturday.
“Tonight, we promised to cherish and nourish each other and our marriage for the rest of our lives,” Scott said on X alongside photos of the ceremony. “Mindy, you’ve made me the happiest man alive. I love you.”
Seacoast founder Pastor Greg Surratt, who counseled Scott during his GOP presidential bid, officiated the wedding, according to the Post and Courier.
Scott’s older brother Ben served as his best man, while Noce’s best friend, Joni Blair, whom she met in college, was her maid of honor….
More…
I wish Scott and Noce happiness in their marriage.
At their respective ages it’s likely they will remain “sociopaths” according to the guy who got the job Scott so desperately wanted.
If I recall from Stevens earlier interviews he compares 2024 to 1980 when Reagan had the edge but it was considered a close race but everything started to fall apart for the Carter campaign roughly a couple weeks before the election (around Oct. 20).
In the end that race was 51% Reagan, 41% Carter 7% John Anderson 1% Libertarian Ed Clark and 1% other. And of course the Electoral College was more lopsided 489 Reagan 49 Carter 0 Anderson
At this point I don’t see Kennedy matching Anderson’s 7% national vote total and I don’t think any Democrat could possibly beat Trump by 10 points in the popular vote. But I’d be thrilled to be wrong about that!
Yes,I agree.
The electorate is way more polarized than it was over 40 years ago.
PredictIt, the betting market for all things elections, wants a proof of identity document I’m not willing to provide. But I no less know who Harris will pick as her VP.
It’s guaranteed to be a Governor. She sent out requests to corporate PAC’s to send donations now because of some FEC rule about contributing to a sitting Governor. She has reportedly already finished the interview process, and today is meeting with all of PA Governor Shapiro, AZ Senator Kelly, and MN Governor Walz. My read into that is they’re being declined.
Announcement is in two days. This leaves Pete Buttigieg, KY Governor Beshear, maybe IL Governor Pritzker. Beshear adds the most in her quest for swing states like GA and NC, plus other reach targets that may come in a landslide scenario. Pritzker does have money, but hasn’t been seen much on the stump. Neither has Buttigieg. So I’m calling it for Beshear.
A little technical….
Kelly’s a US Senator….
The BIG push IS for Shapiro…..
But he could create a problem in Michigan and with young voters….
And we don’t know what the Iran/Israel next throw downs will mean….
She actually has about 24 hours….
AS with Vance….
The media WILL know due to the notification to the Secret Service of the choice and the arrival of whoever’s protection detail and the logistics of the Tuesday moves….
Waltz seems to be making a run for the spot now by the handicappers ….
As to the comparison to 1980, Harris won’t win by 10, though I think she’ll be around 53%. Trump around 45%. Similar popular vote spread as ’08 and ’88, with the electoral vote spread closer to ’88. 460 EV’s Harris.
2008 is thee closest we’ve been to a landslide since 1996..
The stock market crash in mid September of that year made what would have probably been a 5 point Obama margin to 7-8 pts.
Today is the 110th anniversary of Britain’s declaration of war against the German Empire, the last of the falling dominoes that started World War One.
See if this works; if not see the original at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_World_War_I#1914
June 29 Politics Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, who was killed in Sarajevo along with his wife Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb.[1]
July 5 Politics Austria-Hungary seeks German support for a war against Serbia in case of Russian military intervention. German Empire gives assurances of support.[2]
July 23 Politics Beginning of the “Black Week”. Austria-Hungary sends an ultimatum to Kingdom of Serbia. Kingdom of Serbia responds that night, agreeing to most but not all terms of the ultimatum.
The Serbian response is seen as satisfactory by the Kaiser, but German diplomats do not pressure Austria to make peace.[3] (Details)
July 24 Balkan Kingdom of Serbia mobilizes, expecting Austria to declare war after the refusal of the ultimatum.
July 25 Eastern Austria mobilizes. Russia enters the period preparatory to war (partial mobilization).
July 28 Politics To my peoples. Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia.[4]
July 29 Politics Willy–Nicky correspondence. Wilhelm II, German Emperor and Nicholas II of Russia communicate via telegram.[5]
July 30 Politics Germany sends Russia an ultimatum.[5]
July 31 Politics Sweden announces neutrality in the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia[6]
Politics Russia mobilizes for war.
August 1 Politics Germany declares war on Russia and mobilizes.[7][8][9]
Western France mobilizes.[7]
Politics Italy declares its neutrality.[10]
Politics German–Ottoman alliance. German Empire and the Ottoman Empire sign a secret alliance treaty.[11]
August 2 Western Germany invades Luxembourg.[12] (Details)
Western Skirmish at Joncherey, first military action on the Western Front.[13]
August 2 – 26 Western Germany besieges and captures fortified Longwy, “the Iron Gate to Paris”, near the Luxembourg border, opening France to mass German invasion.
August 3 Politics Germany declares war on France.[14] Belgium denies permission for German forces to pass through to the French border.[15][16]
Politics Switzerland declares its neutrality and mobilises for defence purposes.[17][18]
Politics Sweden declares neutrality in the conflict between Germany, Russia and France[6]
August 4 Western German invasion of Belgium (1914)[19] to outflank the French army.
Rape of Belgium
Politics Britain protests against the violation of Belgian neutrality, guaranteed by the Treaty of London (1839), The German Chancellor replies that the treaty is just a chiffon de papier (a scrap of paper). The United Kingdom declares war on Germany, automatically including all dominions, colonies, etc. of the British Empire including Canada, Australia, and British India.[20] (Details)
Politics The United States declares neutrality.
I am happy to see Team USA winning medals, gold and otherwise, at the Olympics.
Also happy to see gold medal victories by athletes from places like Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Even Dominica (not the Dominican Republic) and St Lucia won medals for the first time.
Morning people….
Congresswoman Cori Bush, on the ballot tomorrow in MO, equivocates over if Hamas is a terrorist organization.
The Chicago Cubs are 1-1 since RFK Jr’s cubbie confession.
Seems quite in line with the Kennedys thinking they are entitled to get away with things like that. He probably named the bear Mary Jo.
Morning………
The media choice IS Shapiro
Not picking him IS going to annoy the media
And?
I’m assuming the media already knows who the ckoice is due to the logistics of becoming the choice
The Harris camp has done a fantastic job of keeping the pick a secret as long as possible. I’ve scoured Google’s news feed since yesterday night for clues. None.
And the so-called “clue” Shapiro gave can be interpreted either way, to be honest.
Walz
Security fleet was at his residence yesterday night. Shapiro was deflated in all his statements. Certain now.
Thanks SE….
The logistics HAD to be done before …
So the media Bull Shit about the ‘Call’ timing is just noise….
He KNEW yesterday and so did Shapiro
She is making her calls.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/kamala-harris-is-calling-her-finalists-for-veepstakes
It’s walz
May I have this Walz!
Former teacher. Veteran. Common sense Midwestern governor. Prairir populist. Media savvy.
I would have been thrilled with Shapiro as well.
Any thoughts on whom the next Governor of Missouri will be? Not asking who anyone thinks it should be, but who is the pick to win the Republican primary today?
🙄?
If I had to put money down I’d say Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe winning the GOP primary and he’d be a heavy favorite in the general.
Jay Ashcroft–Sec of State and son of former Gov, Sen and US Attorney General John Ashcroft could pull it our too.
The 3rd candidate in the Republican primary is State Sen Bill Eigel. A complete right wing wacko. If he has an upset tonight the race in the fall could be competitive with the likely Democratic nominee House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (though I voted for Springfield businessman Mike Hamra in rhe gubernatorial primary today).
Trump endorsed all 3 Republicans running for Governor in Missouri.
Lame.
From what I understand, Trump endorsed all three of the leading Republican candidates, which is basically the same as not issuing an endorsement. But this way, no matter what happens, he can put out a big graphic, and claim that the person he backed “won.”
The revelation that Doug Emhoff had a affair back in the day seems to have come and gone….
A Jewish Democrat is expected to win tonight’s primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan, over a more anti-Israel opponent. Hopefully, that will happen
But how come there is not as much concern on the left about that race in that state as opposed to people worried about what Shapiro would have meant for Michigan on the Presidential ballot?
New Marquette Law School nationwide poll has Harris leading Trump by 6 head to head and by 8 in multi candidate field.
Morning All….
Thanks for the new thread idea Scott