Ukraine Update…838 Days of the Russian Conflict…The Trump Factor….

• The UK has announced dozens of new sanctions aimed at constraining Russia’s war in Ukraine, including targeting Moscow’s main stock exchange, a day after Washington announced similar measures. Washington on Wednesday unveiled a raft of sanctions, including on the Moscow exchange and several subsidiaries, that raise the stakes for foreign banks that still deal with Russia. The punishment, set to complicate billions of dollars in transactions, dramatically prompted the Moscow exchange to halt dollar and euro trades on Thursday.

• Among the new UK sanctions are its first on vessels in Putin’s so-called shadow fleet, used by the Kremlin to circumvent western curbs on its oil exports. They also target suppliers of munitions, machine tools, microelectronics, and logistics to Russia’s military. Those suppliers include entities based in China, Israel, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey, along with ships transporting military goods from North Korea to Russia.

• The Financial Times reports that the UK “shadow fleet” sanctions cover the large Russian insurer Ingosstrakh as well as individual tankers including one called the Canis Power. More details of the sanctions package are included in the government announcement.

• China said it firmly opposed Britain’s decision to include five Chinese firms in the sanctions, which target China-based Hengshui Yuanchem Trading and Hong Kong-based HK Hengbangwei Electronics for allegedly being or having been involved in “destabilising Ukraine” or “undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty or independence of Ukraine”.

• Leaders of the G7 western economies have meanwhile outlined an agreement handing $50bn (£39bn) of aid to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian state assets. The loan agreement, hammered out in complex legal talks over the past three months, will see a special fund operating by the end of the year. The interest on the large loan is to be funded not by Ukraine but from the profits derived from the frozen Russian state assets.

• The US and Ukraine have also signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement, announced as Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskiy met at the G7 summit in Puglia, Italy. Biden said arrangements were being made to provide Ukraine with five Patriot missile defence systems, adding: “Everything we have is going to Ukraine until its needs are met.”

• Zelenskiy described the deal as the “strongest agreement” struck since his country’s independence in 1991, noting it would last through the war and afterwards, covering intelligence cooperation and the strengthening of Ukrainian defence industries. In addition, Ukraine and Japan signed a 20-year security agreement on the sidelines of the G7, Zelenskiy said, that envisages security and defence assistance, humanitarian aid, technical and financial cooperation.

• On the frontlines, Ukraine said on Thursday that its forces were fighting fierce battles near Chasiv Yar, a strategic hilltop settlement whose capture would give the Russians a powerful foothold in the eastern Donetsk region. “Two combat engagements continue near Ivanivske,” the Ukrainian military said. “The situation is tense.” Ivanivske is a small town just outside Chasiv Yar.

• Farther south in the Donetsk region, officials said one civilian was killed near Pokrovsk, another point where Russia has concentrated its firepower. A 40-year-old man was killed by Russian fire in the Kherson region, Ukrainian officials said, while Russian-installed authorities in the region meanwhile said one civilian was killed by Ukrainian forces.

• Allies will send Ukraine about €350m worth of 152mm artillery shells, the Dutch defence ministry said on Thursday, after a two-day “Ramstein group” meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels. “In previous ammunition deliveries, Ukraine has so far received mainly 155mm shells for howitzers donated by the west. However, the country also has many 152mm guns. With the new delivery, these weapons can also be better utilised,” said the ministry.

• Returning to the G7, Zelenskiy, at a joint press conference with Biden, said the Chinese president, Xi Jinping had assured him during a phone conversation that “he will not sell any weapon to Russia. We’ll see if he’s [a] respectable person he will not, because he gave me [his] word.” But Biden added: “China is not supplying weapons but the ability to produce those weapons and the technology available to do it, so it is in fact helping Russia.”

• China, skipping the coming weekend’s summit on a peace plan for Ukraine, has been lobbying governments with its alternative plan, 10 diplomats have told Reuters, with one calling Beijing’s campaign a “subtle boycott” of the global meeting in Switzerland. Reuters cited Beijing-based diplomats, one of whom said China had told developing nations the Swiss meeting would prolong the war, while two diplomats with direct knowledge of the matter said China had been telling western nations that many developing countries shared its views.

• China’s own proposal calls for an international peace conference “held at a proper time that is recognised by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans”. Zelenskiy recently accused China of trying to undermine the Swiss conference but has also encouraged Beijing to take part in find a route to peace.

• Countries supporting Ukraine must speed up their decision making, the outgoing Dutch PM, Mark Rutte said on Thursday. Rutte, a leading candidate to become Nato’s next secretary general, was speaking at a conference in Finland…..

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Russian assets interest loans for Ukraine status….

A major rift has emerged between the U.S. and European governments over a plan to secure a massive loan for Ukraine ― leaving negotiations to run past this week’s G7 summit and perilously close to the U.S. election.

As leaders of the group of seven advanced economies gather in Italy from Thursday, American hopes that the meeting would act as a showcase for Western support to Ukraine as its war with Russia stretches into a third year look like being dashed amid increasing European irritation.

“What Washington is proposing is, ‘We [the U.S.] take a loan, Europe takes all the risk, you [Europe] pay the interest, and we [the U.S.] use the money for a U.S.-Ukraine fund,’” said one senior European diplomat. “We might be stupid but we’re not that stupid.”…

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There is palpable anger within European governments about the U.S. plan, which, they argue, would mean they would be on the hook to pay the loan back if anything goes wrong ― while American companies could potentiallybenefit the most from the Ukraine reconstruction contracts that would flow from it.

Governments are in a race against time, not just because Ukraine desperately needs the money, but because there’s no certainty that a Donald Trump presidency would back the initiative. A final agreement will now be delayed until at least the fall, according to three officials. The U.S. goes to the polls on Nov. 5….

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As Ukraine struggles to pay for its war effort, the U.S. has been lobbying European allies to look into ways to secure cash for Kyiv amid fears thatTrump’s potential reelection to the U.S. presidency could halt Western support to Ukraine….

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Washington said that guaranteeing the loan with U.S. taxpayers’ money would mean involving Congress in ratifying the agreement, according to three officials. This comes with fears that opposition from Republican lawmakers will extend the process past November’s presidential election.

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Ukraine wants MORE F-16’s …Faster….

The US is NOT in a hurry….

Stung by the failure of Western advanced weaponry last year to achieve big gains…..

The US and Europe are slow walking the training for deployment of the advanced fighter jets….

(President Biden REALLY doesn’t want the jets going to the Ukraine…..

But has been hounded into agreeing to allow their export….Biden has bee steadfastly afraid to allow Ukraine to obtain top line Western military weapons….)

Ukraine is NOT Happy….

Ukraine and its Western supporters are at loggerheads over the speed and scale of fighter pilot training, with Kyiv pressing U.S. and European partners to expand the program and the allies countering that Ukraine’s pilots aren’t yet ready to start flying its incoming F-16 jets in large numbers.

Ukrainian officials insist they have 30 pilots ready to start training on the aircraft and complain that there aren’t enough spots available at training facilities in the U.S. and Denmark. They argue that they urgently need more pilots trained to fly the jets as soon as they arrive in order to help counter Russian forces on the frontlines.

But U.S. and European officials gathered here to coordinate the transfer of weapons to Ukraine said they are working deliberately to sync up the number of pilots and maintainers graduating from training with the number of aircraft arriving in Ukraine this summer. The aircraft will arrive in tranches, they said. The schoolhouse in Arizona is able to train only 12 pilots at a time.

“When they field these capabilities, you want them to be able to field them in an effective way. An F-16 is no good if it’s eliminated on the first day,” said one senior Defense Department official, granted anonymity to speak about sensitive discussions.

The pilot argument marks the latest hurdle in Ukraine’s drawn-out quest for modern fighter jets. Kyiv began asking for the U.S.-made F-16s shortly after the invasion, but President Joe Biden was reluctant to give the green light. Finally last year he approved the third-party transfer of aircraft from Norway, Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands, but the training program has been plagued by logistical challenges…..

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024 – ISW Press