Enough with the media hype FOR Trump and Blacks….
Not to be taken for granted…
But CERTAINLY THERE…
Despite current worries among Democrats about parts of their coalition’s less than enthusiastic support for President Biden’s re-election, history suggests those concerns may not be warranted.
A recent in-depth Pew survey shows that about one in five African American men say they plan on voting for Donald Trump. Among Democrats, this has led to fears that Black voters in key cities in key states like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee will cost Biden those critical states.
So how dangerous is this to Biden’s prospects? First, much of the polling that purports to show Black voters moving toward Trump is based on small sample sizes. The samples from subsegments in those polls are often so small that they have a very large margin of error.1 Second, they aren’t as recent as survey data, from Pew, that analyze the Black vote in greater depth.
During this month’s discussion of young Black voters hosted by Brookings as part of their Race, Prosperity and Inclusion Initiative, Howard University political science professor Marcus Board, Jr. said that the normal Republican Black vote in presidential contests ranges from eight percent to 15%. Surveys back up his numbers.
The Pew survey cited above, for example, indicates that Black voters prefer President Biden over Donald Trump by greater than a four-to-one margin (78% to 18%). These numbers reflect a level of loyalty to the Democratic Party that has existed since the late 1960s and continues to this day.
In 2016, Pew’s Validated Voter survey found that 14% of Black men voted for Trump while virtually all Black women (98%) voted for Hillary Clinton. Overall, Clinton led Trump among Black voters by 91% to six percent. In 2020, according to Pew’s Validated Voter survey, 12% of Black men voted for Trump. Overall, Biden led Trump in that election among Black voters 92% to eight percent, because Black women voted for Biden over Trump by 95% to five percent.
Currently, according to the recent Pew survey of African Americans, (with a sample size of 8,709 and a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points) 83% of Black registered voters identify with the Democratic Party, or lean Democratic, while 12% are Republican or lean Republican. While it is true that this is a smaller share than the 88% who identified with the Democratic Party in 2020, it is well within the level of party identification the majority of Black voters have felt toward the Democratic Party over the last 30 years. There is no evidence that these patterns have changed significantly since the 2020 election and, absent some major historical event not currently on the horizon, they aren’t about to in 2024….
….
Blacks vote at rates that match and, in some cases, exceed the level of voting by other parts of the coalition. If they want to win this year, Democrats should spend less time worrying about the Black vote and more time working hard to ensure the election results reflect the same historical patterns of party loyalty they have enjoyed from Black voters in the past…..
U wuz right on the 83% CG and it IS there for Biden….
Yes, no need to worry. Everything is fine! Biden is headed to a huge, huge victory. It’s quite obvious.
NOT worried about the Black vote going OVERWHELMINGLY FOR Biden?
U bet your ass…..
I’m NOT worried….
You should be worried. Any body who wants a candidate to win in what is certainly a close race should be “:worried.”
But you seem to be in denial. Trump looks to be doing a good deal better with the black vote than he has in the past. Will it be enough to cost Biden the election? Unknown right now, but this is obviously not 2008 or 2012.
He, he, he….
Yea….
Young Black voters whose parents got shit sandwiches back then and now also….
I’m betting those young blacks will come to their senses and either NOT vote or vote FOR the same people that 83% of other Black Folks cast their ballots FOR
Biden is old, rich, and white.
If that were not bad enough, he identifies as male, Christian, and heterosexual.
He is everything that young liberals of all races have been taught all their lives to believe have too much inherent power, are threats to progress, need to be reined in etc, etc.
This is a problem for Democrats. It is hurting Biden in 2024. Maybe he will win, but it will still be a problem for Democrats going forward.
Ah?
Donald John Trump…….’ IS old, rich, and white.
If that were not bad enough, he identifies as male, Christian, and heterosexual.’….
He IS a sexual predator, convicted fraudster, convicted FELON, and owes out in civil cases $850M in the US and UK…..
ALL THAT IS gonna hurt Trump in addition to him being seriously messed up from BEING a CONVICTED FELON….
I didn’t say those young leftists like Trump or would vote for him, but they are leftists. They should be voting for a Democrat over a Republican. They may vote for a third party or they may stay home. That is a problem.
There are also differences in the fact that while almost nobody who is supporting Biden think he is “cool”, a lot of people voting for Trump do.
Many do like that he has a mug shot. Just like they glorified Che Gueverra and other terrorists. Just like they cheered mob bosses and murderers like John Gotti.
Trump is a sick man, but sickness appeals to many humans unfortunately.