The NY Times rolls out a daily polling average….
This is NOT a forecast and prior polling have been off as much as by 9% points….
What do the polls say about the race for the White House?
With less than five months to go, new poll averages from The New York Times, which debut today, show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states.
On average, the recent national polls show President Biden and Donald J. Trump each winning about 46 percent of the vote in a head-to-head race. They are essentially tied as they approach their first debate Thursday night.
A close race is a slight improvement for Mr. Biden. He’s trailed in other polling averages — even if only narrowly — on almost every single day of the last nine months. But he narrowed his deficit in the wake of the State of the Union and with the clinching of the nominations in March. He’s closed the gap entirely since Mr. Trump’s felony conviction in New York.
The race is also close in key battleground states, but here Mr. Trump is slightly ahead in the most recent polls. While he often leads by only a point or two, he does nonetheless hold the edge in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia — states that would be enough for Mr. Trump to win the Electoral College and therefore the presidency….
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It’s important to emphasize that a polling average is not a forecast. It’s just our best measure of the state of the race today. It doesn’t account for, say, the partisanship or demographics of a state. It doesn’t allocate undecided voters. It can’t simulate what will happen in the debates and at the conventions….
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Still, the Times polling average, which will be updated every day through Election Day, is our best effort to help you understand what the polls are saying about the race. And right now, the average shows a very close race….