Many Democrats are STILL worried about the Biden Campaign….

FIVE  months….

Alarm Bells RINGING off the Hook‼️

With the Democratic President even or slightly behind the convicted ex-President Trump in the polls?

There IS a LOT of people Worried that Joe Biden’s job could be in jeopardy to a guy he beat last time….

Biden’s handlers , insulated with him, think that people will just be worried enough about Donald Trump’s negatives , to vote for the President…

But polling so far does NOT seem to assure THAT outcome….

The polls point to the economy …..

PERIOD….

Not abortion, Trump’s criminal conviction or even immigration….

And Biden’s understatedness is not breaking thru….

 

Running your last winning race works sometimes….

This time it is producing doubts….

Joe Biden better have a good debate…..

 

Senior Democrats, including some of President Biden‘s aides, are increasingly dubious about his theory for victory in November, which relies on voter concerns about Jan. 6, political violence, democracy and Donald Trump’s character.

Why it matters: Biden’s core inner circle hasn’t lost faith in that approach, the product of Biden and his longtime aide, Mike Donilon.

• But that puts them on an island within much of the party about what will decide the election, as polls consistently have shown Biden tied or behind even after a slight bump following Trump’s criminal conviction.
• Several polls have indicated voters are deeply concerned about democracy but they are most worried about inflation and the economy. They’ve also shown Biden’s support slipping among key Democratic voting groups: Blacks, Latinos, young adults and union members, but the Democracy message is resonating with older voters.
• Biden’s former chief of staff Ron Klain, who has known Donilon for decades, told Axios his view is: “In Mike I trust.”

What they’re saying: A Democratic strategist in touch with the campaign told Axios: “It is unclear to many of us watching from the outside whether the president and his core team realize how dire the situation is right now, and whether they even have a plan to fix it. That is scary.”

• People close to the president told Axios they worry about raising concerns in meetings because Biden’s group of longtime loyal aides can exile dissenters.
• “Even for those close to the center, there is a hesitance to raise skepticism or doubt about the current path, for fear of being viewed as disloyal,” a person in Biden’s orbit told Axios, speaking on condition of anonymity because of those dynamics….

…

Zoom in: Despite a year head start, a larger campaign team and spending more than twice what Trump’s team has spent on ads since early March, Biden’s numbers against Trump have largely stayed the same the past few months, with the slight bump after Trump’s conviction.

• During the ad campaigns and Trump’s trial, however, Biden’s average approval rating hit an all-time low on June 9 of 37.4%, with 56.7% disapproving, according to FiveThirtyEight. His current approval rate is 38.4%….

…

The intrigue: Biden aides worry that they didn’t take full advantage of the head start they had in 2023.

• Biden’s inner circle often makes decisions by committee. That slowed down the campaign’s decision-making, people familiar with the dynamic told Axios.
• There also has been internal second-guessing over the team spending $25 million-plus on an ad buy last fall that didn’t move Biden’s numbers.

Zoom out: Many Democrats think the president and his closest aides learned the wrong lessons from Democratic wins in 2020 and 2022, and it’s causing them to misread 2024.

• Biden’s core team, including Donilon, believes Biden won in 2020 because his “soul of the nation” message resonated and he presented a clear “moral contrast” to Trump.
• In 2020, Donilon wanted to focus on Trump’s character over the economy, even though “our own pollsters told us that talking about ‘the soul of the nation’ was nutty,” he told the New Yorker….

…

• Biden and his close team have defied their doubters in the 2020 primary, the 2020 general election and the 2022 primaries. That’s led them to be defiant toward those voices this time.

But many Democrats — including some in the administration — say the Biden team’s view of itself is distorted:

• Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary largely because the party consolidated to stop Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and picked the candidate who polls showed as the most competitive.
• Even with a once-in-a-century pandemic, Biden barely beat Trump by less than 45,000 votes across three states. “Biden didn’t win, Trump lost,” one Democrat close to the White House put it….

More…