Make no mistake….
The uncommitted vote IS Democratic President Biden’s vote……
Donald Trump’s support IS a lock for him…..
Some GOPer’s might not actually vote….’
But most ARE gonna choose him…..
President Biden on the other hand?
Has a stiff political wind blowing in his face…..
Age, Foreign Affairs and Economy doubts ARE sitting on a plate on the table in front of him….
And the plate is sooooo full that the other guy running against him, is running even, or slightly ahead, as a convicted sex offender, and criminal felon, who ain’t even seriously campaigning…..
Democrats ARE hoping and praying that a good percentage of those on the fence ‘come home’ and vote for the guy who beat Trump the last time…The guy who IS President Joe Biden….
If they don’t?
We’re back in ‘Never…NEVER Land’ a place this country voted out of in 2020….
‘Uncommitted’ didn’t spread outside of its base, but other challenges remain
Biden’s campaign has also faced questions about whether he can maintain support among Black and Hispanic voters. In that regard, protest votes in the Democratic primary offered some mixed signals.
There was little indication that the “uncommitted” movement around the Gaza war spread significantly beyond the young voters and Arab American communities where it was strongest.
In Michigan, where the “uncommitted” campaign was perhaps most prominent, Biden performed especially well in predominantly Black precincts.
But there were voters casting ballots against Biden for other reasons, too.
In Texas, non-Biden candidates got more than 30 percent of the vote in half a dozen border counties. (The state doesn’t have an “uncommitted” option.) And the incumbent president failed to crack 50 percent in Zapata and Starr counties, a continuation of a troubling trend of waning support for Democrats in the region.
The bright side for Biden is that, at least in the primary, the pattern from South Texas did not seem to replicate in other majority-Hispanic counties or border communities. Biden put up a strong primary margin in the battleground state of Arizona, with Marianne Williamson — the wellness guru-turned presidential candidate who called for a ceasefire in Gaza — getting only a small share of the vote.
The “uncommitted” vote got a bit shy of 10 percent in New Mexico’s Tuesday primary, which was among the last places polls closed. Williamson came in around 6.7 percent….
…First, the models suggest this election will be at least as close as 2020 — when Biden won by about 40,000 votes across a small handful of states.
Second, while the narrative attests that everyone is locked into their positions and no one is moveable, the polls tell a different story. As much as a fifth of the electorate is either undecided or willing to change their mind before the election. This is a massive universe of persuadable voters especially for a race between an incumbent and former President.
Third, to win, Biden doesn’t need a single person who voted for Trump in 2020 (although we would gladly welcome them into our coalition). Our targets are people who voted for Biden in 2020, especially Black, Hispanic, and younger voters…..
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