Those who think his criminal conviction in New York City was light stuff appear to be wrong….
The ex-President, who is running about even with President Biden, IS losing around the margins of support he would need to edge out a win in 5 months….
This Politico poll is just another that points to Biden’s quiet underlying voter strength should independent and undecided voters show up and vote come November….
1. Trump’s Conviction Is an Electoral Liability — Particularly Among Independents
The notion suggested by some pundits that a conviction might help Trump in the general election was always deeply counterintuitive, and our post-verdict numbers rebuff that prediction.
A plurality of respondents in our poll (38 percent) reported that Trump’s conviction would have no impact on their likelihood to support Trump for president, but the results were decidedly lopsided among those who said it would affect their support. Thirty-three percent of respondents said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump, while only 17 percent of respondents said that it made them more likely to support Trump.
The results were worse for Trump among respondents who said they were political independents. Thirty-two percent of them said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump. Only 12 percent of them said that it made them more likely to support Trump.
2. Trump’s Conviction Could Drive Voters Away from Him
It is one thing for someone to say that the verdict makes them more or less likely to support Trump, but more important is whether the issue actually helps determine their vote, particularly given the array of other issues — the economy and immigration, to name just two — that are clearly important to many voters this year.
In an effort to isolate the effect of the verdict, we also asked respondents how important the conviction would be in deciding how they vote in November. Here too, the results were not good for Trump.
So then why has Trumps overall support barely budged?
My view has been consistent here Jack….
Trump HAS been losing support around the edges for some time…..
The more he talks?
The worse it is for him…..
The trial and conviction HAS hurt him physically and politically…..
Hence his poll numbers have stayed basically the same vs Biden…..
Me?
I don’t give a shit what the polls say innthe swing states now……
My feeling IS Biden carries PA, WIS, Mich, Ariz ….
We always try for NC but it never comes through….
Nev would be insurance…..
The debate should show Trump to be in MUCH WORSE shape than Biden and Trump will have plenty of time to make things more scary and screwed up for himself…..
On the economy?
With ole Jerome at the Fed AGAINST rate cuts ?
Biden can do almost nothing on the economy
Why are you calling him “ole Jerome?” He is a decade younger than Joe Biden. Does anyone else call him “ole Jerome?” Is this a nickname that is widely known?
Just my nickname for ‘old Jermpme’
U know Trump would have kicked his tired ass out if he didn’t lower the rates for Him
What’s amusing about your criticism of “ ol Jerome” is that you have been bitching about high grocery prices for months now yet you seemingly don’t understand that keeping interest rates high is considered a prime weapon in combatting inflation.
The ‘economy’ is doing’fine’ the experts say
But?
Consumer prices are thru the roof
Lower interest rates would increase home and big ticket purchases
But the best thing?
It would give the boost to the feeling thatt that things aren’t so bad, which would help Biden BEAT Trump, who wil make things worse
He, he, he
We could always confider‘price controls’?
So you no longer think inflation is the big issue?
HIGH Consumer prices check mates inflation for MOST Americans and is costing Biden votes….
Sure it is…
And the Fed led by “ ol Jerome” is keeping interest rates high to fight the inflation.
So your insinuation that Powell is somehow responsible for Bidens problems re the economy is,like most of your uh “ observations,
Pure rubbish!
Not quite what u pin on me…….
We are dealing with ‘perception’…..
The ‘economy’ maybe fine in Jerome and his crew’s eyes…..
They’re backeo
They make SIX figure compensation
But their families STILL have to buy pizza for $4 a slice and no McDonald’s for their grandchildren for less than $30 a pop…
Now voters who ain’t making what they make HAVE TO pay the same freight….
THAT IS THE ISSUE hurting Biden
Lower interest rates , even a point to a point 1/2 WOULD help Biden in the short term….
I BTW?
Biden talking about import taxes on Chinese cheap goods ain’t gonna help OVERALL…
Just a few states
But i guess he needs what he needs
Uh James you see” high consumer prices” are caused by inflation.
You do understand this don’t you?
High Consumer Prices RIGHT NOW = Greediness
It is quite obvious you have no idea what you are talking about.
Another example of you just repeating something over and over and it becomes your reality.
But ,of course,no one else’s
Trump received a lower share of the vote in Nevada in 2020 than in any of the other states james mentioned, but yet he seems to think Nevada is the most likely to flip to Trump, out of any of them.
What is the reason from your perspective?
Nevada and Arizona should end up for Biden
I remember Nevada was iffy before the 2020 election…. Something to do with labor!