Will those down Ballot voters stay with Democrats to help Biden Win?
These days?
Split Ticket voting doesn’t happen to often….
Democratic Senate candidates continue to run ahead of President Biden in battleground states, a polling spread that presents acute challenges — and opportunities — for both parties.
Why it matters: The mixed messages suggest there’s a slice of the electorate that is frustrated with Biden but sticking with the party on the state level.
- It also raises critical questions for the 2024 election: Whether Democrats can fix the lack of enthusiasm for Biden — or whether he’ll drag down other Democrats on the ballot.
Zoom in: It’s another indication that 2024 will be exceedingly close, with a difference-making bloc of voters open to arguments from both parties on the best way to move the country forward.
- Republican and Democratic operatives expect the gaps to narrow, but they aren’t certain by how much.
What we’re watching: In the Trump era, split-ticket voting has appeared all but dead, but some voters now are hinting they may want more checks and balances than the take-no-prisoners approach of the last eight years.
- If that sentiment holds it could present two interesting dynamics on Nov. 5:
- Biden could be forced to rely on strong state candidates to win.
- Or Trump could win without carrying some of his Senate candidates across the line.
Reality check: In the last two presidential elections, only a single Senate candidate — out of 69 races — won a state that their presidential nominee lost. Her name: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)…..
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State of play: In the five battleground states where there are also Senate races, Biden and the Democratic candidate are up in both only in Wisconsin, according to Real Clear Politics averages of polls released since May 1.
In the other four — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — Trump leads, while the Republican Senate candidates have clear deficits.
- Michigan is effectively a toss-up on the presidential side, with Trump leading slightly based on Real Clear Politics’ polling average, though Biden is narrowly ahead based on FiveThirtyEight’s average.