The NY Times poll IS a Big one…..
4,000+ respondents…..
But?
It IS just another poll , 6 months out, that IS showing the same thing…..
The Biden/Trump race AT THIS POINT IS close…..
Differnt polls give slightly differnt results….
But the basic IS Donald Trump IS slightly ahead of President Biden in the swing states that ARE needed to win the Presidency…
Many of us have looked to the Abortion support and the general Democrats out performing Republican’s since 2020….
We ARE hanging on these things and thge guess that a Trump criminal coviction will nudge some of the alomost 10% of undecided to come to Biden…
People who support Donald Trump SUPPORT HIM…
They do NOT care if he’s a sexual offender or a axe murder….
They tell the pollsters they will vote for Trump….
(But some polls tell us that a Trump criminal conviction WILL peel of support for either Biden or a skip for the Presidential choice box)
Just when you start feeling slightly better about the 2024 election, the New York Times throws another poll into the mix. Despite a string of unfavorable polls from one of the country’s top-rated polling outfits, the April edition of the New York Times/Siena pollproved good news for Biden. However, Monday’s latest battleground states poll shows the substantial effort ahead. According to the findings:
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
While the “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are essentially toss-ups, the polls show Trump with significant leads in Nevada (+12), Arizona (+7), and Georgia (+10). Per this poll, Trump has expanded his lead in these states since the last NYT/Siena battleground statepoll last year.
This is not how you want to wake up on a Monday morning. The early reactions from Democrats range from abject panic (“The sky is falling!”) to pure denial (“The NYT hates Joe Biden and must have rigged the poll.”). It goes without saying, but neither of those responses is particularly constructive.
My advice with this and all polls is to take it seriously, but not literally. No poll is flawless; even the most accurate one can’t predict the future. Instead, think of polls as snapshots of how voters feel right now. Focus on the overall trends and significant insights rather than getting caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations. Use the poll data strategically to understand what resonates with voters and how to communicate our message effectively.
As for the poll causing a stir on social media and cable news, here’s my take….
Note….
Biden may have TONS More campaign money….
But he’s gonna have to get out there, with help, and get people to come out and vote FOR him come November…