Actually the majority of Biden vs Trump polls nationally and in swing states have a margin within the margin of error….
Biden’s favoribity numbers also are a MOE behind Trump…..(If they are Right)
That IS today….
But ?
The Election IS 8 months away and Donald Trump has a mountain of legal, political and money things to climb….
And his ability to talk himself into MORE DEEPER Holes….
I’m on record as believing Joe Biden IS gonna get a second term….
I have no problem with my view ….
Poll numbers withstanding….
But the poll’s do make wonder about the President campaign…
me It is not surprising that early polls have a high amount of uncertainty predicting eventual election results. In many presidential election years, parties had not even selected their nominees by mid-March, making it difficult for voters to think about a choice they would make about hypothetical candidates eight months in the future. Many voters also simply aren’t paying attention to the election yet.
One wrinkle in this story, however, is political polarization. As voters have become more partisan, their votes have become more predictable even from afar. This may make early polls more reliable too. At this point in the 2020 election cycle, polls were off by less than 1 point from Biden’s final vote margin over Trump. And in 2012, polls this early overestimated President Barack Obama’s margin over Mitt Romney by just 3.5 points. On the other hand, at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 8.5 points in the polls, making for a 6.5-point miss.
So while the average error of early polls has dropped over time, some big misses still happen. Those misses also carry more weight since our polarized elections are decided by much narrower margins. A miss of 5 points in a 52-48 election, for example, is just as consequential as a miss of 10 points in a 55-45 election….
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But in an early version of our general election polling average, I’m finding there is about 4.3 points of extra non-sampling error in horse-race polls today. And that’s for the vote share for either party — it’s about double that for the margin between the candidates. This means it would not be unusual at all to get a poll one day with Biden leading by 5 and another poll the next with Trump up 5….
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As history has shown, betting on bias in the polls is not usually a safe bet. Neither is counting on the polls to move in your direction. The Biden campaign, of course, knows this, and it has eight months to change the minds of the American people. Given the empirical uncertainty in early general election polling, and the tendency for bias to jump around from cycle to cycle, there is a distinct chance they do so. But before you can dig yourself out of a hole, first you have to acknowledge that you’re in one….