The polling trend HAS moved TO Joe Biden since the Biden State of Union Speech…
The short version is that over the past couple weeks President Biden has caught up with Donald Trump, as depicted in the Economist’s polling average above.
Now that’s not the whole story, or even an entirely good story, as I’ll detail momentarily. But deeper in the tea leaves, most recent developments are also pretty favorable to Biden and (thus) bad for Trump.
Consistent with the head-to-head polls, Biden’s approval ratings have ticked up (or, for copium abstainers, his disapproval rating has ticked down) while Trump, who has been more popular of late than in many years, has seen his numbers fall.
But to me, the best case for optimism lies outside the realm of survey data. It’s better for Biden to be slightly ahead than slightly behind, but what he needs more than anything is upside potential to open a large lead. And as mainstream-media fixation on his age has faded, his real long-run advantages have become clearer.
Since American elections are zero-sum, you can spot Biden’s upside potential in two buckets. Anything that’s good news for Biden is good news for Biden (QED); but anything that’s bad news for Trump is also good news for Biden.
There’s good news for Biden in both buckets.
- The economy is bullish and charging, with growth driven by productivity while inflation falls—a recipe for election-year interest-rate cuts, which should keep the economy humming and improve economic sentiment.
- Because this boom really is, to a large extent, a product of Biden’s economic policies, it feeds dream retail-politics coups like this: announcing an $8.5 billion grant to build an Intel microchip plant in Arizona.
- Relatedly, we’ve reached the point where “are you better off than you were four years ago” comparisons are insanely favorable to Biden. Congratulations, you’ve made it four years since Trump lied about and (thus) exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic….
…
We should also remind ourselves that Biden doesn’t just have to take the lead in national polls. He needs to lead by enough to overcome the pro-GOP bias of the electoral college, too. In a tied race, you can typically expect Biden to be down two-to-four percent in tipping-point states, which means there’s no breathing easy until Biden’s up four or five nationally, and even that’s too close for comfort. If the election were held today, Biden might win the national popular vote, but he’d probably lose the election. That’s why for now I’m fixed on Biden’s upside potential rather than any snapshot of the day-to-day race….