Reality Check people…
The President of the United States gets elected by getting a majority of state votes….
NOT the popular vote like every other political contest in America…
Right now in mid March 2024 Biden is roughly equal with Donald Trump….
But in polling for the states?
President Biden trails….
As of yesterday?
The President has begun addressing his issues in the state he won in 2020 , but now trail…..
He DOES have good things to build on…
And he needs to do that now as some people will have their minds made up on their vote for November already….
Of course?
The Donald Trump walking around today?
Is NOT the Donald Trump that will be around come Election Day….
He face’s a ill STRONG wind iagainst him n a multitude of situations and place’s…..
The state of polling today looks worse for Biden. I’ve previously pointed out that the president looks to be in a considerably worse position in Sun Belt battleground states today than four years ago.
He’s trailing by 5 points or more in the most recent polling from Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. No Democratic presidential candidate has lost Nevada since 2004.
If Biden loses all of those states, he can still win if he carries every other contest he did in 2020 — that would help him finish 270-268 in electoral votes.
The problem for Biden is that he’s behind in Michigan. The average of polls over the past six months that meet CNN’s standards for publication has him down 4 points.
In other words, the polls show Trump ahead, however narrowly, in enough states right now to win the Electoral College and the presidency.
The election, though, isn’t being held today or tomorrow. It’s being held in about eight months.
But if I were Biden, it’s not so much the “horse race” polling that would bother me. It’s what lies underneath the hood.
Americans say the top problems facing the country are either related to the economy or immigration. Trump is considerably more trusted than Biden on both issues. It’s possible that if consumer sentiment continues to improve or border crossings decline, Biden could pick up steam against Trump.
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This means that it isn’t enough for Biden merely to win voters who dislike both men. He has to win them by a substantial margin to make up for his popularity deficit.
With eight months to go, Biden could certainly make up the gap. But unlike in most campaigns, both major-party candidates are already well defined. Less than 5% of voters aren’t able to register an opinion on Biden or Trump….
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Perhaps the big question over the next eight months is whether Trump’s weaknesses will start to outweigh Biden’s. If they do, it’s probably the president’s best chance at earning another term….
A Counter to Enten….
Biden allies point to primary results this cycle that show Trump underperforming his polling numbers and failing to capture moderate voters, as well as nonpresidential cycles under Biden where Democrats outperformed projections.
“We’ve got a long way to go. We’ve got a lot of work to do. But I think everyone in this town … is overestimating their strengths and underestimating ours,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg.
Some Democrats were quick to dismiss The New York Times poll in particular.
Strategists were puzzled at the poll’s finding that women were equally split between Trump and Biden at 46 percent each, given exit polls in 2020 found Biden won women by 15 percentage points.
Democrats also questioned the poll’s findings that Trump was leading Biden by 6 points among Latino voters because Biden won that group by 33 percentage points in 2020, according to exit polls. Multiple Democratic strategists and pollsters noted 97 percent of interviews with Latinos surveyed for the poll were conducted in English.
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There are signs Biden may be underestimated, though. While thousands of Democratic primary voters cast ballots for “uncommitted” in protest of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, pollsters said many of those voters are likely to rally to the president’s side once the general election arrives.
“It is clear that there is some protest vote amongst regular Democratic voters in the primaries, and since polls are a snapshot in time this is what they are capturing,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ. “But historical vote patterns tell us staunch partisans usually come home, and as such I expect Biden to get back many of those voters.”
Rosenberg, the Democratic strategist, argued perhaps the strongest evidence that the polls are wrong about Trump is the reality that Democrats continue to win elections, particularly in the aftermath of the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending Roe v. Wade….
They need to keep coming and Biden MUST keep campaigning…..
It IS the STATES to get to 270………
He ‘seems’ to NOT be there now…Eight months out….
AND?……
As I point out….
The Trump today ain’t the Trump that will be on Election day….