Russia and Ukraine keep shooting at each others…..
Ukraine President Zelenskyis having trouble with his military….
The Russia military HAS tens’f thosands of reserve troops ready for their Spring offense….
Zelensky is trying to switch leadership and set his military up to deal with uneven military aid . supplies and a possible post Putin election effort for a settlement…
He knows that outside world IS getting tired of the conflict….
One could see Ukraine being asked to approve a peace deal that would have Russia KEEPING gains in the Donetsk , Luhansk and Crimea…..
-
Russia said 28 people, including one child, have died in Saturday’s shelling of a bakery in the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk, which is under Russian occupation. A further 10 people were rescued from under the rubble by emergency services, according to officials.
-
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was considering replacing several senior officials – and not just in the military. It comes amid speculation that the president is about to dismiss the commander of Ukraine’s military, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. “It is a question of the people who are to lead Ukraine,” Zelenskiy told Italian TV when asked about Zaluzhnyi. “A reset is necessary, I am talking about a replacement of a number of state leaders”, he said.
-
His comments came after Zelensky made a trip to Ukrainian troops on the south-eastern frontline to hand out medals.
-
Zelensky used the visit to announce a new mayor of the frontline Zaporizhzhia region, Ivan Federov. Federov was once abducted by Russia and was previously mayor of the now temporarily occupied Melitopol since December 2020.
-
More than two dozen people, mostly journalists, were detained on Saturday at a protest in central Moscow where wives and other relatives of Russian servicemen mobilised to fight in Ukraine called for their return, according to a Reuters witness and independent Russian news reports.
-
Belgium is asking G7 countries to consider using €260bn in seized Russian assets held by the west as collateral for loans to Ukraine, according to a report in the Financial Times. This would avoid questions around the legality of seizing the assets outright, as has also been considered by Ukraine’s allies, according to the paper.
-
Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko set a world record for the total amount of time spent in space on Sunday. As of 8:30GMT, Kononenko overtook his compatriot Gennady Padalka who logged more than 878 days in orbit, according to Russia’s space corporation, Roscosmos.
-
US senators are racing to release a highly anticipated bill that pairs border enforcement policy with wartime aid for Ukraine, Israel and other US allies. The proposal is the best chance for president Joe Biden to resupply Ukraine with wartime aid. The Senate was expected this week to hold a key test vote on the legislation, but it has already run into a wall of opposition from conservatives….
….
Feb 4, 2024 – ISW Press
Russia’s reported reserve concentrations throughout Ukraine largely align with Russia’s assessed priorities along the front, although they are not necessarily indicative of future Russian operations. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces currently have 17 regiments, 16 battalions, and two regiment-battalion level tactical detachments in reserve. Mashovets stated that there are about 60,000-62,000 total Russian personnel in reserve units, but Russian forces have only equipped about 20,000 tactical and operational-tactical level reserve personnel with weapons and equipment. Mashovets stated that Russia’s reserves are concentrated in the greatest numbers in the operational zone of the Southern Grouping of Forces, followed by the Western Grouping of Forces, Dnepr Grouping of Forces, the Zaporizhia Grouping of Forces, the Eastern Grouping of Forces, and the Central Grouping of Forces. The Southern Grouping of Forces is responsible for the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, and Mashovets noted that the reserve concentration in this area aligns with the areas where Russian forces are concentrating their offensive efforts. Mashovets observed that it is not surprising that the Dnepr Grouping of Forces — which operates in occupied Kherson Oblast — has the third highest number of reserves given that Russian forces may be concerned over a Ukrainian threat in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian officials have recently indicated that Russian forces have more than 70,000 personnel on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, but that many are concentrated deeper in the rear.The Dnipro Grouping of Forces’ reserves would likely be able to easily move to the Zaporizhia direction if circumstances so required. Mashovets assessed that the Central Grouping of Forces, which is responsible for the Lyman direction, has the lowest concentration of reserves due to its smaller operational zone that requires fewer troops. ISW additionally assesses that the Central Grouping of Forces has a lower concentration of reserves because Russian operations in the Lyman direction are likely meant to support the Western Grouping of Forces’ operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, as ISW will soon outline in an upcoming operational analysis of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis. Russian forces will be able to move their reserve concentrations freely between different sectors of the front as long as Russia holds the strategic initiative across the theater. ISW continues to assess that an active Ukrainian defense throughout the theater in 2024 would cede the strategic initiative to Russia allowing Moscow to determine where, when, and at what scale fighting occurs in Ukraine and to allocate Russian resources appropriately while forcing Ukraine to respond. Ukraine would be able to deny Russia this ability, however, if Ukraine were able to contest the initiative.