This second poll is a Emerison/PIX11/The Hill Poll….
Good news for House Democrats in this Special Election in Long Island , New York….
The voters polled EXPECT Suozzi to win by a 6% margin….
Early voting also stronly favors Suozzi getting his House seat back….
The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New York’s 3rd Congressional District finds 50% of likely voters plan to support Democrat Tom Suozzi, while 47% support Republican Mazi Pilip, and 3% are undecided ahead of the February 13 special election. When including the 3% of undecided voters, Suozzi’s support increases to 52%, and Pilip to 48%, within the poll’s +/- 3.5% margin of error.
Suozzi maintains the three-point margin he held over Pilip in January’s survey of voters, when he led 45% to 42%. Regardless of which candidate they plan to support, a majority of voters (53%) expect Suozzi to win, while 47% expect Pilip to win.
“Which candidate comes out on top next week will depend on turnout,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted. “Early voting favors Suozzi 59% to 41%, while Election Day voters lean towards Pilip 51% to 49%. Additionally, there’s a notable contrast in support between white and Asian voters in NY03: white voters favor Pilip 56% to 45%, whereas Asian voters overwhelmingly support Suozzi with 75% to 25%.”
Suozzi outperforms Pilip among younger voters, with 60% of voters under 30 supporting the former congressman compared to 40% who support Pilip. Conversely, Pilip holds a slight advantage among older voters; 54% of voters over 70 support Pilip, while 46% support Suozzi….
Note….
Suozzi has gone STRONGLY to the Right on Immigration where Pilip and Registered Democrat running on the Republican ticket beats Suozzi….
President Biden DOES have a Immigration policy issue…..
These polls show a statistical tie. I will offer my formal prediction on my blog on Monday. You are way out on your skis here in insisting Suozzi has it in the bag. A common sense person would try to cover their ass at least a little.
This IS NOT a Tie……
…’Suozzi maintains the three-point margin he held over Pilip in January’s survey of voters, when he led 45% to 42%. Regardless of which candidate they plan to support, a majority of voters (53%) expect Suozzi to win, while 47% expect Pilip to win’….
Emerson…
…
Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who formerly held the seat, had 48 percent support among likely voters compared to 44 percent for Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, a Nassau County legislator….
Sienna…
Statistical tie, margin of error and what not. Turnouts in special elections are the most unpredictable. I am sure that the polls in that district right before November 2022 had Santos down a few points too and he won by like 8. The Democrat running against Santos then thought he had it in the bag.
Now, it is clear that Suozzi has decided he needs to sound like a Republican on the border in order to win. The issue of crime in the NYC metro area is a big one, especially after some recent events in the news.
Today, I would call it Tossup (D). If not for these polls, I would have said Leans D.
Do you think it is Leans D? Likely D? Safe D? The way you write, makes it seem like you think its Safe.