Probably NOT says a piece in the Economist (behind a pay wall)…
The piece points to the fact that serious heavy hitters of polling have not started to run polls consistently ….
One could see this point….
Look at the right leaning Real Clear Politics lists…..
You have Trump up only 1.7% and THAT is actually above theses polls margin’s of error…..
And?
You’ll have a few polls with Trump up marginally and then a Biden up poll…..
I submit that Biden’s people have internal polls that are a slightly better for him….
In the swing states that same would apply one could think……..
But Joe Biden probably is NOT strongly ahead by any means 9 months out from the November election day actual vote….
The Economist: “The size of Mr Trump’s lead varies widely by the quality of pollster, as assessed by FiveThirtyEight… This early in the election cycle, the pollsters in its highest tier of quality have conducted polls only sporadically… However, in total, 13 polls have been conducted in 2024 by firms in this group. On average, they show a virtual tie between Mr Trump and Mr Biden.”
“By contrast, most polls released in January 2024 have come from pollsters’ middle class: firms with good but not exceptional records. Polls in these (‘good’ and ‘decent’) tiers show Mr Trump with a 2.4-point and 1.7-point lead respectively. Meanwhile, pollsters with a poor record or no prior published results show Mr Trump with an average margin over Mr Biden of around six points.”