, CNN gives a common sense analysis…..
It don’t look like Georgia, or the Carolina’s are gonna come in for him this time….
Enten points to Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe Arizona and Nevada for Biden to get to 270 Electoral votes to keep his government job….
Enten is worried about Biden and Black and Hispanic voters ….
I think he may change his mind after todays South Carolina primary vote….
I could be wrong…
But they WILL come home in Arizona and Nevada….
We’ll also see if Muslim and Arab voters desert Biden for a guy who wants to restate Muslim Bans…..
Just how does Joe Biden win reelection? National polls show him trailing Donald Trump more often than leading him – a rare position for an incumbent to be in at this point in the campaign.
These national polls, though, mean little. You win elections state by state through the Electoral College. Back in 2020, the closest battleground states (i.e., those decided by 3 points or less) were either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina).
Biden would be reelected if he wins all the states in either region, so long as he also carries the remaining states he took in 2020.
At this point, though, it seems his easiest path to a second term runs through the Great Lakes rather than the Sun Belt.
Look at two Fox News polls released Thursday. Biden and Trump were tied in Wisconsin – a state the president won by less than a point in 2020. In Georgia, another state Biden won by less than a point four years ago, Trump held an 8-point edge.
These Fox News polls are not outliers. Trump hasn’t led (even within the margin of error) in any Wisconsin poll this cycle that meets CNN’s standards for publication. On the other end, he hasn’t trailed in any Georgia poll in well over a year….
…
Now, none of this is to say that Biden should solely be relying on winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Beyond the fact that his Michigan polling hasn’t been good – he’s trailed in a number of polls – Biden would be winning the bare minimum in the Electoral College if he carried those three states plus every state he won by at least 5 points in 2020.
Getting exactly 270 electoral votes doesn’t leave Biden with any room for error, especially if he ends up doing worse among White voters than current polling indicates. (This is what happened in 2020.)
On the other hand, if Biden starts to improve with Hispanic and/or Black voters, his polling in the Sun Belt could improve. With so much time between now and November, Biden’s got to be giving himself multiple options.
Still, if someone was taking bets at this point, Biden’s easiest path to 270 electoral votes seems to be through the North, not the South…
South Carolina has voted for a Democrat for President once in the past 60 years (Carter in 1976).
Why would any Democratic presidential candidate pay any attention to it?
Well, I think you will agree Jack, he or she will in the next Presidential primary. After all it made Biden the nominee.
James, question: do live in the District where the special election is taking place?
No Keith
Meeks my House Rep
I’ve been around both though…..
Meeks has a few staff people when he moves
Suozzi is just one advance person
He should have never run for Governor…..
Big mistake…
Pretty sure that the last redistricting would have put you in the 4th District, currently held by Republican Anthony D’Esposito.
As was said?
The winner there becomes the nominee except for once I believe , Edwards, in the last few decades
Biden and the DNC wanted this very thing
Pretty bad news for Biden in last week’s NBC poll. Trump actually leads Biden by 1% among Hispanic voters (goodbye, Rainbow Coalition &Third World Liberation Front)
NBC News Poll: Biden trails Trump by 20 points on the economy as his approval ratings plummet
Feb. 4, 2024, 9:00 AM EST
By Mark Murray
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.
The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.
And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.
Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies, says these findings reveal “a presidency in peril.”
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Horwitt said. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
McInturff, the GOP pollster, adds: “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
But Horwitt said that Biden still has time to change voters’ perceptions.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024. At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change,” he said.
The NBC News poll, conducted Jan. 26-30, comes after Trump won his party’s presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the Israel-Hamas war enters its fourth month, and amid positive news on the U.S. economy, including growing consumer confidence and more than 300,000 jobs created last month.
(The poll, however, was conducted before the U.S. military launched strikes Friday in retaliation for the killings of three U.S. service members in Jordan.)
“Inflation is coming down. Jobs are growing. We created 800,000 manufacturing jobs,” Biden boasted in Michigan on Thursday.
Despite those statistics, Trump holds a 22-point advantage over Biden on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, with 55% picking Trump and 33% choosing Biden.
When this question was last asked in October 2020 — a month before Biden’s victory over Trump — the then-president held only a 7-point advantage over Biden, 48% to 41%.
That said, the poll shows improving attitudes about the economy, with the share of voters believing the economy will get worse in the next year declining 14 points since October 2022….
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-economy-presidential-race-rcna136834
I’ll make this a post later it’s a outlier
Caution:
In James’s world,any poll that doesn’t agree with his view?
Is an” outlier”
The last 2-3 major polls have had Biden tied or slightly ahead…….
This poll has him behind by 5% points….,
Something is off
Ok I double checked
I ‘m Wrong..,,,
Last few polls have a drop for Biden
My mistake
He had 3 good polls last week
I wonder if his drop was due to the Middle East?
Or the Border beat down?
Or BOTH?
Pretty bad news for Biden in last week’s NBC poll. Trump actually leads Biden by 1% among Hispanic voters (goodbye, Rainbow Coalition &Third World Liberation Front)
NBC News Poll: Biden trails Trump by 20 points on the economy as his approval ratings plummet
Feb. 4, 2024, 9:00 AM EST
By Mark Murray
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.
The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.
And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.
Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies, says these findings reveal “a presidency in peril.”
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Horwitt said. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
McInturff, the GOP pollster, adds: “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
But Horwitt said that Biden still has time to change voters’ perceptions.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024. At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change,” he said.
The NBC News poll, conducted Jan. 26-30, comes after Trump won his party’s presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the Israel-Hamas war enters its fourth month, and amid positive news on the U.S. economy, including growing consumer confidence and more than 300,000 jobs created last month.
(The poll, however, was conducted before the U.S. military launched strikes Friday in retaliation for the killings of three U.S. service members in Jordan.)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-economy-presidential-race-rcna136834