A linked piece below from from the National Review…..
A REPEAT of this dog pointing out that Donald Trump only ‘owns’ a part of the Grand ole Party….
NOT?
The whole 9 yards……
And for that?
He IS NOT gonna be the Amnerican President AGAIN….
There is nothing funny about Trump’s lack of grace in victory after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. What is funny, though, is that the guy who’s been marking his territory for a half century with gleaming, gaudy “TRUMP” emblems has not yet branded one on the GOP, in recognition of its no longer being the old party, much less grand. In 2024, for the reasons Noah Rothman expertly gleans from the results in New Hampshire and Iowa, Trump’s is the Small New Party.
It’s all his, and good luck with that. But he can’t win with it. I thought it would take longer into the campaign cycle to illustrate this fact, but it’s already plain….
…
Close to 50 percent opposition from presumptive supporters is bad news for the former president. Remember, that’s now, when things are going as well as they’re going to go. Democrats haven’t even started the messaging onslaught against Trump that is coming — to say nothing of the criminal trials.
Trump has the devoted support of the Trump Party. But it is small. Traditionally, Democrats have had a numerical advantage over Republicans; that has evaporated, but mainly because more Americans now identify as independents (41 percent) than as Republicans or Democrats (about 28 percent each). But the important point is this: Because of its comparatively modest size, the Republican Party — which has won the popular vote for president just once since 1988 — had to attract Democrats and independents.
The new Trump Party is significantly smaller than the Republican Party as it existed prior to Trump’s emergence. So what does Trump need in order to be competitive in November? That’s easy. Even more than the old Republican Party, he needs disaffected Democrats, independents, and non-Trump Republicans.
And what is he doing to get them? Get them? He’s purposely alienating them.
Trump is the impetus that keeps disaffected Democrats in the Democratic fold. Nearly two-thirds of independents voted against him in New Hampshire — a continuation of his hemorrhaging of their support from 2016 to 2020. And the reason the Republican Party no longer exists as such is the approximately one in five Republicans who want nothing to do with Trump — the ones he belittles as RINOs.
The RINO insult is incoherent. Most of what Trump labels RINOs are what, until recently, we thought of as actual Republicans. They are on the outs now because (a) they won’t join the Trump personality cult and, (b) to the extent there is an ideological “Trumpism” (as opposed to one man’s eccentric, reactive views), they won’t swallow its heresies from traditional conservatism (e.g., big intrusive government, runaway spending, unsustainable entitlements, protectionism, skepticism about America’s leadership in the world, embrace of anti-American dictators while vilifying American political rivals, and the promise of a Democrat-style retributive-justice system rather than a traditional American justice system that reveres equal protection under the law)….
…
The newer, smaller Republican Party, the Trump Party in all but name, will not return its hero to the Oval Office. If Trump accomplishes anything, it will be to convert RINO from a punch line to a badge of honor….
CG noted a few weeks ago that Trump received 94% of the Republican vote in 2020.
He probably won’t get quite that much in 2024.This article suggests that the anti Trump Republicans compose about 20% or so of self described Republicans.Since even some of these people will likely still vote for Trump ,rather than Biden,he will likely receive between 80- 90% of the Republican vote in this years election.
I doubt THAT…..
He’s average only about 50%+ in the primaries…
So you don’t agree with the National Review article that you used as the basis of your post,is that correct?
Really off-base take.
There have been two contests thus far. The primary electorate has included people who identify as Independents and Democrats, in addition to people who identify as Republicans. Those who are Independents and Democrats in IA and NH are voting for someone other than Trump vastly more than those who are Republicans.
Many of those who identify as Republicans and have voted for another candidate in IA or NH would vote for him against Biden.
As the other 48 states (plus territories) chose their delegates, Trump will get another to win the nomination. These are unique times though and he is a unique candidate with unique circumstances and weaknesses which could mean that something could happen before, during, or after the convention to allow for another Republican to replace him, but that’s all a long-shot.
Once again, I had a substantive post that is not appearing. This keeps happening. Apparently, I am under some sort of moderation at all times.
Ur up CG….
You made the comment about the moderation free and clear……
You are not on the hit list……
But something in the URL or other thing may trigger the moderation
Again
I’m glad to have u back here and I’ll feature ur posts if u want.,,.
Others have the same thing happen from time to time….
If there is an automated reason why several posts get put into moderation,I would like to know why. You do not seem to know or be able to explain. This would be quite frustrating to anybody attempting to post.
CG?
There IS a list of people and URL’s that are moderated…..
U have NO idea of how much spam and bull shit stuff that this or other sites get dumped on….
It IS necessary to maintain that…
Any time u post and get stuck?
I go in and restore u…..
Posting from different sources also affects ur post’s address…..
There is no attempt to single u out
Relax and enjoy the ride
We’re happy to have you aboard again
I responded in detail to the 4:02 comment explaining what a bad take it was.
It’s not on the website though. Perhaps it will be in a few hours..or never.
James, did you know that 36% of the voters in the N.H. Democratic primary voted for candidates other than Biden?
Does that mean that a third of Democrats aren’t going to vote for him?
He, he, he
Come ON Jack
Biden was a Write-In Getting how much of the vote??????
WTF was the other guy????
No it’s a valid point.
At least using your “ reasoning “
It apparently was not very hard to write in and the N.H. Democrats campaigned for people to do so,yet 36% of those who voted didn’t take the few seconds to write Bidens name in,
Why?
D
Hey Jack?
Larry Sabato @ Twitter
Whopping 64% of Americans Say They ‘Definitely’ Or ‘Probably’ Would NOT Support Trump For President in 2024: AP Poll (A baseline survey from 8/23–worth remembering) mediaite.com/a/iyfga via @mediaite
Uh James ,that was from August.
Besides explain how that poll is more valid than more recent polls that show a very tight race and,in some cases, Trump leading.
Further, while you constantly LIE about my thinking Trump is god and all sorts of other garbage ,my only point is this coming election is not the slam dunk for Biden that you think it is,that,in my view, there are many other Democrats who would run better than Biden against Trump ,and that the overwhelming majority of Republicans will at the end vote for Trump( see discussion yesterday.)
Of course I will vote for Biden .That is a no brainer but,unlike you, I am no cheerleader.This is going to be a tough and likely very close election. So,instead of your often juvenile attempts at making silly debating points?You better wake up and smell the roses.
Biden is no shoo in for reelection and that’s a simple fact.
Most of this century’s elections have been close, so while one can weigh the chances, nothing is as certain as uncertainty itself.
Here are Dave Leip’s % margins and D-R percentages working backwards from 2024 to 2000 (and even then winning the popular vote in 2000 and 2016 didn’t carry the Electoral College):
2020 – 2.09% 48.02% 45.93%
2016 – 3.86% 51.01% 47.15%
2008 – 7.26% 52.86% 45.60%
2004 – 22.46% 48.26% 50.73%
2000 – 0.52% 48.38% 47.87%
Sorry that should be:
2004 – 2.46% 48.26% 50.73%
Jack?
Do You think Donald J. Trump will be President AGAIN?
This IS a YES or NO Question…..
Please state your answer…..
As of now?
I would answer No.I think it will be a very close election similar to 2000 when a change of 70,000 or so votes in several states would have reelected Trump.
Further I find the “ question “ largely irrelevant as there are a host of imponderables this far out which could drastically affect the result.
Since you seemingly want to play games though,how about this,
Do you think a “ whopping “ 64% of the voters in November are going to vote for a candidate or candidates other than Donald Trump assuming he is the Republican candidate?
Uh This is a yes or no question..
Please state your answer.
Nope…..
NOT 64%…..
(But enough for Biden to get four MORE years)
Well why did you direct it at me specifically?
You know,the “ Hey Jack” routine.
Why didn’t you say “ not that I believe this “ before directing this almost six month old poll at me specifically?
No one else,just me.
What could your purpose have been other than implying that you believed it?
Just for your future reference?
The last thing I need is “ information “ from the likes of you.
Just more of your infantile bs.
Well?
U and I were having this conversation, eh?
The Andrew McCarthy piece is really good. I am sort of surprised he wrote it. He used to be a huge favorite of the MAGA set for the way he defended Trump on various legal matters.
Yes, the party that Trump dominates is far smaller than what the Republican Party was before him. It is more insular and openly hostile towards reaching out to others to form any sort of “Big Tent.” The die-hard MAGA crowd thinks that they can easily beat Joe Biden. Others in the party have helped them validate that belief. Other than a fluke 2016 EC victory, the actual results for the Republican Party under Trump show something very different. It is true though that Democrats and their incumbent are a political mess as well. If they were not, there would be a stark difference in the polls.
I like McCarthy’s term “neo-RINO” though. I should using it. Either that or “The Endangered Northern White Rhino.”
Don’t tell Jack That CG……,
The idea of Trump getting slightly more than 50 percent thus far in two Republican contests equates to him getting only slightly more than 50 percent of self-identified Republicans in a general election is just mind-numbing.
Tell me what?
Uh James….
I think he’s pointing at you.
I don’t even think they have been able to determine yet how many write-in votes were for Biden. On Election Night, the networks just gave him all the write-in votes automatically. There could have been some names for other people or for “Ceasefire.”
In fairness to Joe Biden, this is the first time he won New Hampshire, heck the first time he has finished better than 5th place in the NH primary, in four attempts, going back to his first run when I was in elementary school.
Hey CG?
He wasn’t on the damn ballot and he WON in a blowout even with some people he’ll get in November voting FOR HALEY!
HOT DAMN‼️
Thanks for checking and confirming my point!
DNC wanted SC First
Iowa went along
NH didn’t
NH delegates are supposed to thrown out at the convention…..
I doubt that with the Biden sweep
Well, since Democrats are not going to win SC in November, they better hope this gambit doesn’t hurt them in NH, which they definitely need to win in November.
Biden WAS just in SC ……
Something about turning out the Black vote there
If we only knew what your “ point” was!
Maybe not being on the ballot and not campaigning somewhere is Biden’s best bet.
I suppose the lesson, CG, is that Joe Biden does better in the New Hampshire primary when he’s not on the ballot!
ok , 64% for Biden is confirmed.
About 4 percent wrote in Haley. about 2 percent wrote in Trump, and a whopping 1 percent for Ceasefire.
912 votes for Vermin Supreme.
What kind of nickname would Trump give him?
Some of my other favorite candidates on the N.H. Democratic ballot…
Vermin supreme…910 votes
Paperboy Prince…322 votes
President Boddie…136 votes
Star Locke…60 votes
Richard Rist had the dishonor of finishing last among the candidates on the ballot with a measly 38 votes.
No word on his 2028 plans,
I would also note that Dean Phillips ,the Minnesota Congressman ,got around the same percentage of the vote in N.H. as Nikki Haley did in Iowa.
Now infecting the Mother of Parliaments:
Nigel Farage is the most popular choice to replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, according to a new poll, in a sign of just how right-wing the party has become.
A poll, carried out for GB News, by People Polling survey, found that Farage was the most popular choice among both UK voters in general as well as among Tory voters in the 2019 General Election. Farage was the preferred choice to take over from Sunak among 8% of voters, ahead of Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt who were both on 7%.
Among 2019 Tory voters, 16% said Farage should lead the party. Johnson was next (15%) followed by Mordaunt (12%).
Farage is the founder of Reform UK, a right-wing party which says it will be fielding candidates in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales at the general election expected to be held this year.
Although the party is now led by Richard Tice, Farage still holds a great deal of influence over the movement.
Reform UK has been causing a headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as its support in the polls has recently been rising. In the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, Reform won more votes than the difference between Labour and the Conservatives.
The People Polling survey also found that Reform were polling at 12%, just eight points behind the Tories on 20%.
Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward
https://leftfootforward.org/2024/01/tory-voters-want-nigel-farage-to-replace-rishi-sunak-poll-finds/