No doubt that President Biden’s people have the same view on the 2024 Presidentinal race as the people over at Sabnato’s Crystal Ball….
I also feel that Donald Trump’s chances for sucess in November are VASTLY OVERsold....
— Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game.
— We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms.
Assessing the 2024 race
Welcome to 2024, the year of a presidential election that feels both sleepy and explosive at the same time.
The former feeling stems from a primary season that does not seem all that competitive. Less than two weeks away from the kickoff Republican caucus in Iowa, former President Donald Trump’s position continues to look strong, while President Joe Biden is doing what recent incumbent presidents have done, deterring truly notable opposition as he seeks renomination.
The latter feeling comes from the unprecedented specifics of the potential Biden versus Trump rematch, namely Trump’s litany of legal problems—including efforts to keep him off the ballot in certain states based on his role in the events of Jan. 6, 2021 that likely will necessitate intervention by the U.S. Supreme Court—as well as Biden’s struggles in recent horse race polling and the potential for third party candidates to siphon off some not-insignificant share of the vote, in large part because of the weaknesses of the frontrunning Biden and Trump.
In order for the Republican primary to awaken from its slumber, Trump will need to be defeated, in all likelihood, more than once before Super Tuesday. It’s not unimaginable for Trump to lose New Hampshire, most likely to former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), given that its electorate is generally less conservative and more highly educated than the overall GOP primary electorate (Trump doesn’t poll as well with these kinds of Republicans as he does with Republicans overall). Independents and even Democrats may cross over to vote in the GOP primary to try to block Trump. But even if New Hampshire rebuked Trump—and it very well may not, as Trump has comfortably led most polling in the Granite State—that doesn’t mean other states would follow suit…..
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Our Electoral College ratings, shown in Map 1, reflect a close and competitive election but also one in which Biden is in better shape than what polls show now. These have been our ratings since the summer, and we’ve decided to stick with them, at least for the moment. Biden has more electoral votes at least leaning to him than Trump, but Biden’s not over 270, and we can more easily imagine some Leans Democratic states—most obviously Pennsylvania—falling into the Toss-up column than any state currently at least leaning to Trump. Another way of looking at this is that if you exclude all the Toss-up and Leaning states/districts, and just focus on the Safe and Likely states—the groupings that represent a realistic floor for both candidates—it’s Biden 221 to Trump 218, or basically a tie.
Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings
