Politico Magazine questions the idea that Donald Trump would be able to win the Presidency a second time even of he was a convicted felon….
There is a question of when, and if any of the four criminal trial’s willa actually start and finish BEFORE the November election….
(Of Course there WILL be appeals , but he would BE a convicted felon nevertheless)…
The results in Iowa last week were a win for Donald Trump, but they also underscored that the former president’s ongoing legal troubles are among his biggest liabilities in a rematch with Joe Biden.
Nearly a third of Republican caucusgoers told pollsters that Trump would not be “fit” for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime — a sizable defection that, if it held, would likely doom Trump’s general election chances.
Polling in this area is challenging, so it is best to take this figure with a considerable grain of salt. Some portion of these people, for instance, may believe Trump would literally be incapable of serving as president if convicted of a crime — perhaps because he would immediately be hauled off to prison or disqualified — which is not true, and which they would eventually come to learn if things moved in that direction….
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Even before the Iowa caucuses survey, recent polling data suggested that a criminal conviction of Trump, particularly for election subversion, could ultimately sink his reelection bid if he is the GOP nominee. Everything about this is unprecedented, so there is no way to know for sure how reliable or accurate these figures are, but at this point, the trial in Washington looms over Trump’s campaign like a dagger.
From a legal perspective, the three other pending criminal cases against Trump — in Manhattan, Florida and Georgia — do not pose as potent a threat at the moment.
That’s partly because state prosecutors are willing to defer to the Department of Justice and special counsel Jack Smith. Indeed, in Manhattan, District Attorney Alvin Bragg has indicated he would be amenable to moving his trial date, which is currently for March 25, so as not to conflict with the federal prosecution. But even if Trump is ultimately tried and convicted this year, the state law charges — which concern alleged hush money payments made to the adult film star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election — are not likely to result in serious prison time (if any)….
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But there is a very real and substantial possibility — arguably more likely than not — that Trump will stand trial in Washington before the general election. If that happens, he will probably be convicted, and we will then find out in earnest what the actual political consequences are for Trump’s reelection effort.
His legal team is laser focused on preventing this from happening, but even if Trump manages to postpone all of the trials in his pending criminal cases until after the election, his legal problems will still loom front and center throughout the end of the campaign. The campaign would just be a different type of referendum on Trump’s legal woes.
In this scenario, Biden supporters could envision a future in which Trump — at long last, after the better part of a decade of various investigators pursuing him — may actually wind up in federal custody following a criminal conviction. Trump’s supporters, meanwhile, could see his reelection effort as a way of saving Trump himself from a genuinely shocking and ignominious end, and as a vehicle for seeking revenge on the people who have been pursuing him.
The upshot is this: Trump had a relatively good night last Monday in Iowa, and he is one step closer to his party’s nomination and to a rematch with Biden in the general election. Things are looking pretty good for him in New Hampshire as well. But there is a long way to go between now and November, and the prosecution against him in Washington remains, at a minimum, very much in sight…..