New York and California maybe the path’s for Democrats to make Hareem Jeffries the next House Speaker….
New York is a key state for House Republicans if they are to keep their majority in 2024, a reality underscored by Rep. George Santos’s (R-N.Y.) expulsion Friday.
Republicans lost a seat with Santos’s expulsion, and his district is likely to be a toss-up in the fall. Several other New York Republicans are in toss-up races, signaling just how much is at stake in the Empire State.
“New York is the absolute epicenter of the fight for the House majority,” New York Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said. “It will very likely be determined in New York.”
The key Republicans that the House GOP are relying upon to win include Reps. Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, Anthony D’Esposito and Brandon Williams. All of them face competitive races.
“It’s always tough being a Republican in New York, unless you’re in a district that Elise Stefanik has,” said New York Republican strategist Tom Doherty, referring to the New York Republican’s rural, more comfortably red 21st Congressional District.
Democrats rode to victory in the 2022 midterm elections on backlash to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade and former President Trump’s false claims of the 2020 election being stolen.
The party was able to keep a majority in the Senate and only narrowly lost control of the House. Republicans now only have a 221-213 majority in the lower chamber without Santos.
New York was one of the glaring — and most surprising — exceptions to Democrats’ success in the midterms, with Republicans picking up four seats in the state….
The districts that the Democratic-led state Legislature approved were tossed out by the appeals court ahead of the 2022 elections, and a special master created the map currently in use. This helped contribute to Democrats losing several seats that year.
Democrats are now trying to have the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission be allowed to create a new map, which could ultimately be more favorable to them. The appeals court heard arguments on the case last month and appears likely to issue a ruling soon…
[ Democratic strategist,] Reinish, who said that New York Republicans will have a “real target” on their back, argued that the incumbents will have trouble benefiting from split-ticket voting in a political landscape where that is becoming less common. He said they may be able to tell voters they “did the right thing” on Santos, but that will not matter as much as other issues…..