Political Dog 101

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A Look at idea that Black folks polled now are/have gravitated to Donald Trump……

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The guylinked on twitter below thinks the polls ain’t what the vote will be from Black voters….
Tom Bonier

@tbonier
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
So how to explain these polls showing Trump with ?20% support from Black voters? Here are the potential explanations as I can think of them:
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
1) The polls are just wrong (Occam’s Razor) and there is a pro-Trump bias among Black poll respondents right now Maybe. But Trump did perform slightly better (1-3 pts) with Black voters in ’20 than he did in ’16. Which still doesn’t explain a massive jump to 20+ though…
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
2) While Trump is winning over Black voters, other Republicans are not. Some of the polls have suggested this is the case, like NYT showing Harris and the generic Dem candidate stronger overall.
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
3) The polls reflect some Black voters expressing discontent, but this isn’t translating into actual GOP votes. This is the “polls as protests, not votes” theory.
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
There are likely other potential explanations, but I think these three basically cover it. My sense is that the likelihood is all three are somewhat true. And in reality, the polls are significantly overstating the support Trump could actually win next Nov. from Black voters.
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
The reason that @SimonWDC and I diverged from the herd predicting a red wave last year was because we were considering all of the data points, not just the polls.
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
While the postmortem on ’22 is that the polls were good/the analysis was bad, there’s a reason polls a year out aren’t counted. The margin of error for Black voters in these polls is going to be close to +/- 10%, so Trump at 22% would be considered “right” if he’s at 12%.

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