Me?
Like a LOT of people…. Do NOT see such a thing…..
We DO see continued High consumer prices….
Higher interste rates…..
Small raises…..
The United States economy surged in the third quarter as a strong job market and falling inflation gave consumers the confidence to spend freely on goods and services.
Gross domestic product, the primary measure of economic output, grew at a 4.9 percent annualized rate from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The pace exceeded forecasts and was the strongest showing since late 2021, defying predictions of a slowdown prompted by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases.
The acceleration was made possible in part by slowing inflation, which lifted purchasing power even as wage growth weakened, and a job market that has shown renewed vigor over the past three months.
Although the growth rate is an initial estimate that may be revised as more data comes in, it’s a far cry from the recession that many had forecast at this time last year, before economists realized that Americans had piled up enough savings to power spending as the Fed moved to make borrowing more expensive….
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There are indications that consumers are running out of dry powder. Disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, decreased in the quarter, as did the personal savings rate…
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Most economists expect that the acceleration in economic activity will be brief. Pitfalls loom in the fourth quarter, including the depletion of savings, the resumption of mandatory student loan payments and the need to refinance maturing corporate debt at higher rates.
But for now, the United States is outperforming other large economies, in part because of its aggressive fiscal response to the pandemic and in part because it has been more insulated from impact of the Ukraine war on energy prices.
“We’re talking about the eurozone and U.K. certainly looking like being on the cusp of recession, if not already in recession,” said Andrew Hunter, deputy U.S. economist for Capital Economics, an analysis firm. “The U.S. is still the global outlier.”..