ABC just released a Presidential poll that IS a outlier….
It has Donald Trump AHEAD of Joe Biden by 51% to 42%……
Huh?
There is NO poll before this that has Trump ahead of Biden by more than 4% point’s in the last few weeks…….
A NBC poll for today has Biden ahead of Trump by 1% ….
The two guys have gone back and forth by a average of LESS than. 1% in the Right leading Real Clear Politics averages ….
The ABC poll IS a Outlier….
The Washington Post piece below hints at this…..
So much so that the post presenting the post has ALL sorts of excuses on why the numbers came out as they did…
Donald Trump is NOT 10% ahead of Joe Biden right now ….
We ALL know this….
Even ABC and The WashPost which had which had a moving error margin based on the number of respondents…
There IS a stark warning in this and other polls….
Biden & Co. ARE going to HAVE TO figure what to do with a President that seems to NOT want to0 campaign to keep his job, but in content to wait for his opponent to self destruct …
The warning signs ARE LOUD and CONTINUAL from his supporters…
The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.
In his bid to become the Republican presidential nominee for a third time, Trump is in a strong position nationally despite facing multiple criminal charges. He is favored by 54 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, little changed from 51 percent in May. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second at 15 percent, down from 25 percent in May. No other Republican reaches double digits. Trump also leads his GOP rivals in recent state polls, which are likely to be more reliable indicators than national polls of the shape of the GOP race in the coming months…
…
Outlier results occasionally occur in polls due to random error and nonresponse issues, although the political composition of the poll is typical on other metrics. Self-reported 2020 voters say they supported Biden over Trump that year by a 50 percent to 46 percent margin, similar to Biden’s 51 percent to 47 percent margin in the national popular vote. In the poll, Republicans have a four-point advantage on party identification when including independents who lean toward either party, slightly more Republican than other recent polls.
A majority of Americans (60 percent) say they believe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020. That result has held relatively steady since early 2021 even as Trump continues to claim falsely that the election was marred by widespread fraud….
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The Post-ABC poll was conducted Sept. 15-20, among a random national sample of 1,006 U.S. adults, with 75 percent reached on cellphones and 25 percent on landlines. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The error margin is four points among the sample of 890 registered voters, and larger among other subgroups….
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Gary Langer: “A hypothetical vote-preference question 14 months before an election is predictive of nothing; it’s best seen as an opportunity for the public to express its like or dislike of the candidates.”
“Biden is broadly unpopular and doubts about his suitability for a second term are extensive; wherever they end up in more than a year, a substantial number of Americans today are taking the opportunity to express their displeasure.”
…
More abuse laid on the lousy ABC/WashPost poll….
Trump world is naturally ecstatic about this latter result, and both the Post and ABC are spending a lot of energy trying to explain it. (To make things more confusing, the Post emphasizes the head-to-head matchup using registered voters, which was Biden 42, Trump 52, in this poll, while ABC’s headline uses the larger group of all adults, which was 42-51.)
The Post took the unusual step of adding a major caveat about their own results in the third graf of the write-up: “The … sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”
JASON MILLER of the Trump campaign mocked the paper, tweeting, “The Post shits all over their own poll throughout the article.”
ABC got even deeper into the polling weeds trying to explain its curious results….
…
We talked to a lot of political professionals this morning, and if you step back from the methodological wars that this poll has inflamed on Twitter, it’s worth considering a few things specifically about this debate and more generally about 2024 and polls:
— The ABC/WaPo poll is an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump up over Biden by 1.1 points. The FiveThirtyEight database also shows a matchup that is essentially tied. There are frequently one-off polls that show a much wider gap.
— Nate Cohn points out that while the ABC/WaPo poll is an outlier compared to other polling organizations, it isn’t an outlier compared to ABC/WaPo’s own polling of the race, which in May showed Trump up by 7 points over Biden. The ABC/WaPo poll has now consistently shown that Biden is struggling with young voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters — notable trends backed up by other research, which Cohn argues makes the poll useful even if it is an outlier.
More…
This poll is alarming in many ways, especially since the NBC poll, also released today, showed broadly similar results (after matching margins of error) — thus reducing the likelihood that the Post/ABC’s poll is some artefact or outlier.
Joe Biden’s re-election is very far from certain, and Donald Trump’s re-election far from inconceivable, especially if hard-pressed workers getting squeezed badly by inflation significantly exceeding increases in income, stay home this time after voting for Biden in 2020.
See:
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/troubles-biden-not-just-age-040325892.html
For the NBC News poll and Steve Kornacki’s analysis (great for Trump; dismal for Biden), see:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/09/24/nbcs_kornacki_nothing_but_good_news_for_trump_in_latest_nbc_2024_election_poll.html
@SteveKornacki
New NBC News poll
GOP primary
Trump 59%
DeSantis 16%
Haley 7%
Christie 4%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Ramaswamy 2%
Hutchinson 1%
—-
General election match-ups
Trump 46%
Biden 46%
DeSantis 45%
Biden 46%
Haley 46%
Biden 41%
9:03 AM · Sep 24, 2023
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494.3K
Views
Kornacki’s numbers match what EVERYONE else has….
Again?
Even ABC/WashPost Comment’s cast doubt on the accuracy of the poll….
Bit if u go Race for the WH link u will see why Biden isn’t worrying….
His EV’s are fine
It IS worrisome looking at the polls 14 months out
Jack will be along knocking the poll as being meaningless I’m sure
Meaningless?
You apparently think so.
Yes….
I join the people at ABC/WashPost in questioning THEIR poll results
I have my doubts anybody is winning the popular vote by 9%. Bullish as I’ve been for Biden, no more than a rough re-creation of Obama’s 7 point win in 2008 if everything goes right. And Trump certainly doesn’t have the juice to win the popular vote, let alone by a wide margin.
From Axios:
“In the Post-ABC poll, 44% said they’re worse off — the most for any president in the poll since Ronald Reagan in 1986, ABC News’ Gary Langer said in his poll analysis.”
Biden will ultimately win by a margin close to HW Bush in 1988. Republicans are ill equipped to go up against the Death Star. and it is so telling that Biden STILL leads DeSantis, contrary to some Republicans’ wishcasting that he’s the stronger candidate. No, Trump is, and Trump will still lose.
*Star, and
More importantly?
Biden’s EV numbers remain almost the same as November 2020