This from the Larry Sabato shop…..
— Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics.
— This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive.
— Attacks on Donald Trump by Democrats, liberals, and mainstream media figures and even indictments by federal and state prosecutors on serious criminal charges have only served to reinforce the loyalty of Republican voters to Trump.
Negative partisanship buoys Trump
Less than six months before voters begin casting ballots in the first presidential caucuses and primaries, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates. According to RealClearPolitics as of Aug. 22, Trump is receiving an average of 55.9% support in national polls of Republican voters compared with 14.6% for his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Moreover, Trump’s margin over DeSantis has increased in recent months following indictments in multiple jurisdictions for allegedly criminal conduct including his notorious efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
What is perhaps even more surprising than Trump’s domination of the Republican nomination contest is his continued competitiveness in a potential general election matchup with President Biden. Despite all of the criminal charges filed against him, Trump remains locked in a near dead heat with Biden, receiving an average of 43.7% of the vote compared with 44.2% for Biden according to the most recent RealClearPolitics polling average.
Donald Trump’s competitiveness in a general election matchup with Joe Biden is due mainly to intense loyalty from Republican voters. In a recent New York Times/Siena national poll that had Biden and Trump tied with 43% of the vote, only 7% of Republicans, including leaning independents, preferred Biden to Trump. Among respondents who reported voting for Trump in 2020, the former president led Biden 91%-2%. Given the close divide in the country between supporters of the two major parties, this sort of loyalty among Republican voters is what is keeping the 2024 presidential general election highly competitive.
Negative partisanship
In this article, I argue that the key to understanding both Donald Trump’s domination of the Republican nomination contest and his continued competitiveness in a general election matchup with Joe Biden is negative partisanship. Negative partisanship refers to the growing dislike of the opposing party and its leaders among voters who identify with or lean toward one of the two major parties in the U.S…..
Note….
The ‘loyality’ seems almost ‘cultlike’ for the hardcore Trump supporters which polling seems to show at aboutr 35% of Republicans polled….These people say they do NOT care if the guy is proven a criminal in trying to be President agin….
Using that 35% number is meaningless.
The fact is that an overwhelming number of the other 65% will vote for him as the Republican nominee.
Hell in a poll today ,61% said they would back Trump for President even if he was in prison.
Ok Jack…..
I was waiting for you mention that!
His support IS SOFT…..
Wait…..
Morning Consult
The share of potential Republican primary voters who plan to watch tonight’s first GOP debate:
Plan to watch all of it: 38%
Plan to watch some of it: 32%
Do not plan to watch: 19%
Don’t Know: 12%
James,
You have been wrong many times on Trump…to call his support “Soft” is absolutely crazy…he has the most support by far of any candidate in the Republican Party…I am not saying his support is strong and unbreakable, but to call it soft is wrong…62% in the poll Jack mentioned is above fifty percent, not soft…especially when his next nearest opponent is at 16%…that is Soft…
C’mon…your trying to put some kind of rational thought to Trump supporters and understanding…rationality has gone out the window when speaking about the Republican Party…Democrats aren’t there yet, but they can be a little looney too these days…
I do NOT say he doesn’t have the MAJORITY of the Republican vote sold to pollsters…..
He DOES….
But poll after poll points to 35% hardcore , ‘I’ll vote for him if he’s in jail’ to around 60+ to I’ll vote for him but I’m open to soemone else……
I AM Rational….
We’ll see when the actual voting starts….