Abortion IS a single issue driver of votes…..
IN SUPPORT of Abortion access. ‘Rights’……
— Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests.
— In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor.
— In Ohio, last week’s Issue 1 ballot question, which was cast as a proxy vote on abortion rights, followed a similar pattern, roundly outperforming now-former Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D) showing in last year’s Senate race.
Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races
Whenever we cover a major ballot issue at the Crystal Ball, we always caution that, even though some votes are framed through heavily nationalized lenses, not everything from these votes can be transferred to typical partisan races. That said, since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling last year, seven states have held ballot measures that relate, whether directly or indirectly, to abortion rights. Abortion rights advocates have come out on the winning side of all seven contests, which is something that has been widely interpreted as a promising trend for Democrats — so the urge to compare ballot issues to partisan races is strong.
With that, we’ll be going through all seven states and seeing how the pro-abortion rights side of those ballot issues compares to the performances of Democrats in some recent key races. Aside from the obvious caveats, it’s important to note that each ballot issue — wording, timing, etc. — was unique….