Ukraine Update…487 days into the Russian move on Ukraine…Where is Yevgeniy Prigozhin?

Here’s what to know

• Prigozhin’s forces, which have supplemented Russian troops in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, took control of a Russian military facility before marching toward Moscow early Saturday, coming within about 120 miles of the capital.
• Prigozhin had called for Russians to join Wagner’s campaign late Friday after claiming that a Wagner camp in Ukraine had been attacked “from the rear” by Russia’s military. The Russian Defense Ministry denied the accusation, and state media suggested video of the strike had been staged.
• The incident has exposed deep fissures in Putin’s regime — particularly among members of Russia’s elite who may have agreed with Prigozhin’s increasingly vocal criticism of the war and how it was being run.
• U.S. spy agencies this month picked up intelligence suggesting that Prigozhin was planningarmed action against Russia’s defense establishment. The White House and officials in the Pentagon and the State Department, as well as leaders in Congress, were informed of the development, as instability from a “civil war” would be a concern to the United States, officials said….

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The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said the agreement was struck to “avoid bloodshed, to avoid an internal confrontation, to avoid clashes with unpredictable consequences.”

By nightfall on Saturday, columns of Wagner fighters were seen streaming out of the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, a military hub, to the sound of residents chanting the group’s name.

The impact of such a direct challenge to the Kremlin, which went unpunished, might not be felt for days or weeks. It could have profound implications for the fate of Ukraine and for Russia’s global standing as partners like China reassess the strength of Mr. Putin’s authority.

Here is the latest:

• Both Mr. Putin’s and Mr. Prigozhin’s current locations remain unknown. Mr. Putin made a brief national address on Saturday in which he refrained from mentioning Mr. Prigozhin by name but condemned his actions as “treason.” Russian state television reported that Mr. Putin had been working in a “special mode” in the Kremlin on Saturday, without elaborating on what that meant, and that he had been “in touch with all law enforcement structures” overnight. Mr. Prigozhin was last heard from late Saturday when he posted an audio statement on Telegram saying he was turning his forces around to avoid bloodshed.

• Senior U.S. national security officials had indications as early as Wednesday that Mr. Prigozhin was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.

• The future of the Wagner group and Mr. Prigozhin’s continued role in it remains unclear. After openly confronting Russia’s military leadership, it remains doubtful that Mr. Prigozhin can credibly lead his forces in Ukraine alongside regular Russian forces.

• Mr. Peskov did not indicate that the uprising would lead to any changes in the Russian military leadership, as Mr. Prigozhin had demanded, and said that Russia’s military operations in Ukraine would continue unchanged.

• In eastern Ukraine, residents saw the rebellion as a distraction for Russia that could help Kyiv’s forces. It was “relatively calm” overnight in Ukraine — a stark contrast from the previous day’s “influx of missiles,” Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force, said Sunday morning on national television….

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Ukraine forces have increased their actions while this internal Russian push/pull plays out….

• Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he discussed the weekend’s turmoil in Russia in a phone call with the US president, Joe Biden, on Sunday and that the events had exposed the weakness of Vladimir Putin’s rule. In a statement, Zelenskiy called for global pressure to be exerted on Russia and said that he and Biden had also discussed expanding defence cooperation with an emphasis on long-range weapons.
• Over the course of a day, the Ukrainian military allegedly advanced from 600 metres to 1,000 metres on the southern and northern flanks around Bakhmut, Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the eastern group of forces, told Ukrainian news agencies. On Saturday afternoon, while Prigozhin was moving towards the Kremlin, the Ukraine military reported an offensive near the villages surrounding Bakhmut, taken by Wagner forces in May, after months of fighting….

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• Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to leave Russia and ordered his fighters to withdraw from Rostov and halt their march on Moscow, under the terms of a deal negotiated by Belarus.
• President Vladimir Putin has appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny. Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko spoke again by phone on Sunday morning, Belarus’ Belta news agency reported.
• US spy agencies picked up information suggesting Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported.
• Russian president Vladimir Putin is “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in his latest evening address.

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