The NY Times dives deeper into the post Federal Justice Dept. Trump arrest and finds some things for Trump & Co. to be worried about…..
All this Trump ‘owns’ the Republican vote isn’t exactly the case….
To be clear, Trump’s enduring support among Republicans is an important story. If it continues, he is likely to become the party’s nominee. That support is a sign that political polarization in the U.S. has become so intense that most Republican voters appear to care more about loyalty to Trump than about the possibility that he damaged national security by allowing sensitive intelligence to circulate.
But the existence of an enduring pro-Trump Republican majority is not the only important conclusion from the recent polls. A couple of subtler patterns in the data are more worrisome for Trump.
A decisive minority?
First, look at the relative sizes of the minority opinions in each category in that chart above: There are considerably more Republicans who consider the charges serious than Democrats or independents who do not think they’re serious. The indictment divides Republicans more than it divides Democrats…..
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Another problematic sign for Trump is that the number of Republicans bothered by his legal problems seems to be growing. So is the number among independents. More voters are bothered by the case against him — on charges of taking classified material and trying to conceal that he did — than by the earlier New York State charges related to hush money for a sexual encounter…
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The bottom line
The 2024 election is still almost a year and a half away, and the prosecutors trying to hold Trump accountable will need to keep making their case not only in courtrooms but also to the public if they hope to convince most Americans of the seriousness of the charges. But those prosecutors do not need to convince most Republicans in order to succeed.
Just look at what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. A small slice of Republican voters was unhappy enough with Trump’s anti-democratic behavior (and the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling) to defect from the party, helping Democrats keep control of the Senate. The last two presidential elections offer a similar case study: Trump lost the presidency in 2020 partly because 11 percent of typical Republican voters supported Joe Biden, up from 9 percent who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to Catalist, a data firm.
Fifty percent isn’t the only number that matters when you’re looking at a subgroups in poll. Small shifts within each party can determine election outcomes…..
Note…
The above seems to say ?
The MORE Trump frets and cries about the second arrest he has gone thru
And the quiet for Biden & Co.?
The MORE Trump himself IS peel off support….
And?
There are at least TWO more indictments probably with his name of it and maybe a THIRD….
Ouch….
Trump’s politcal response isn’t gonna get his off the hook on thes many cases one would presume….