Fairly simple and straightforward. As brutal as the Senate map is on paper for the Demcrats, the fact that ’24 is shaping up to be a banner year for the party offsets a lot of headaches that would otherwise be had.
Races to watch
Arizona: The highly educated, Suburban electorate of Arizona will give Ruben Gallego the win over either Kari Lake or the lunatic Sheriff of Pinal County. No way will Sinema voters stay with her once either of the Republicans starts talking and it becomes clear Gallego is the best shot. And that’s if she even runs.
Florida will be talked up by the alphabet committees, but fat chance on it actually happening. Floridians love their bald crypt keepers.
Mississippi: No one is talking about this one, but the state is glacially moving to the edge of the playing field. With so few offensive opportunities next year, it’s important to seek out as many as possible. Mike Espy made it closer than expected in both his runs, outperforming Biden the second time. A lot hinges on the success of Brandon Presley’s Governor bid this year. If he can actually oust CG favorite Tate Reeves, then there might actually be an opening for someone like Travis Childers, Jim Hood, and/or former Governor Ray Mabus to take on Roger Wicker, attract national attention, and perhaps even squeak out the upset.
Montana: Jon Tester will not lose his race. Think about it, even in a double digits GOP state, the top two candidates they have are the dubious duo of Congressmen Ryan Zinke and Matt Rosendale. The former underperformed his Bozeman-based house race in ’22 to the point of almost losing, and Rosendale himself lost once to Senator Tester in the one race where Tester achieved an outright majority of the vote. On paper a pickup opportunity, but no dice in reality.
Nevada: With Republicans landing a big name recruit in election denier Jim Marchant, who already has a history of underperforming the generic Republican, Senator Jacky Rosen and, by extension, President Biden can breathe easier in the quest to keep the state blue.
Ohio: The sad state of affairs here is that Sherrod Brown is the only Democrat who has a chance to win Ohio. He reminds Ohioans of the kind of Democrat for whom they used to vote. And unlike Manchin, the odds are actually in his favor to do such. No worse than a toss up for Democrats, with all the advantage of incumbency on Brown’s side.
Texas: A must win offensive opportunity for the Democrats. In what is shaping up to be a landslide year for the party, Texas could be the state that gets Biden to an Obama 2008 level in the Electoral College. Ted Cruz is also a polarizing figure, and with the party set to nominate Collin Allred, already a low key better candidate than Beto O’Rourke, this has all the hallmarks of being a marquee contest.
West Virginia: The most vulnerable seat for Democrats. A lot depends on if Republicans are smart enough to go with Governor Jim Justice, or if they pick firebrand Congressman and notorious out-of-stater Alex Mooney. Against the latter, Senator Joe Manchin would be favored to replicate his narrow 2018 win. A Manchin vs Justice race might as well be triaged in favor of offensive opportunities in Texas and Mississippi…..
Ghost of SE @Politicaldog101….
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