The Cook Political Report reports on Catalist, a Democratic data analytics firm, looked back at the election….
The linked stuff below is the fourth in their series….
The news IS Good for Democrats going forward…..
Oh, and of course Abortion limit’s hurt Republicans. and continues to……
This week, Catalist, a Democratic data analytics firm, released “What Happened,” the fourth installment of their series analyzing the previous year’s election results.
Some of their findings support the current narrative of the midterm election — namely that young voters were the key to Democrats’ success at the statewide level. But other findings, like Democrats’ overall slippage with white college-educated voters, goes against some of the conventional wisdom.
First, here is where Catalist data confirms our previous understanding of what happened in the 2022 midterms:
This was a regional, not a national election.
Using Cook Political Report ratings, Catalist grouped Senate and governor races into two categories: one included only races rated as Toss Up or Lean (i.e. competitive races) while the other included races rated as Solid or Likely (i.e. not competitive). For the first time since Catalist has tracked this data in 2014, the most competitive races performed differently than those in the less competitive category. For example, in 2014, Democrats did four points worse in both competitive and non-competitive Senate and gubernatorial races than in the previous presidential year. In 2022, however, Democrats did four points worse in the 52 non-competitive seats than in 2020, while doing slightly better than 2020 (less than 1% better) in the 18 competitive statewide contests.
Young people powered Democrats’ success in 2022.
According to the Catalist analysis, GenZ/Millennial voters (defined as those between the ages of 18-41), not only turned out at higher levels than they did in 2018, but they were the only age group that increased their support for Democratic candidates from 2018. At the House level, younger voters comprised 23% of the electorate, up 3% from 2018. In states with competitive Senate and gubernatorial contests, participation among younger voters increased by 4 points (from 23% to 27%). For the first time since 1980, writes Catalist, “young people’s Democratic support has been greater than 60% for two consecutive midterm elections, and now includes a midterm with a Democratic incumbent president.”
After 2008, many assumed that Obama’s personal connection with younger voters would transfer to the Democratic Party’s candidates in subsequent elections. That didn’t happen. Instead, what seems to be driving younger voters to the polls isn’t love, but anger. In 2018, Donald Trump’s presence in the White House was a motivating factor for these voters. In 2022, anger over the abortion decision was the most likely catalyst for turnout.
Higher turnout = better outcome for Democrats…..
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Democrats didn’t do worse with Latino voters than 2020, but they didn’t do better either.
In the most competitive statewide races of 2022, Democrat candidates took 62% of the Latino vote in 2022, a 1% bump from Biden’s 61% showing with Latinos in those states in 2020. However, it is still five points lower than Hillary Clinton’s 67% showing with Latino voters in these same states seven years ago….