New Hampshire HAS a problem,,,,,
It simply does NOT represent the Democratic base….
It lack’s the diversity found in most of the Democratic vote….
South Carolina DOES…..
In a December letter to the Democratic National Committee, Biden called on the DNC to consider changing the calendar to ensure the nominating process reflects “the diversity of America.”
“For decades, Black voters in particular have been the backbone of the Democratic Party but have been pushed to the back of the early primary process,” Biden wrote in the letter. “We rely on these voters in elections but have not recognized their importance in our nominating calendar. It is time to stop taking these voters for granted, and time to give them a louder and earlier voice in the process.”
In February, the DNC voted to move South Carolina into the first slot on Feb. 3, followed three days later by New Hampshire, which has long held the first primary, and Nevada. (Iowa, which holds its caucuses before New Hampshire holds it primary, also would move back.) Republicans would maintain their current schedule.
Removing New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary status could chase independent voters into the arms of the GOP, [NH Democratic US Senator] Shaheen cautioned Sunday. New Hampshire has open primaries, and undeclared voters are the largest share of registered voters in the state.
New Hampshire voters, particularly independents, are very engaged in elections, considering candidates on both sides of the aisle, Shaheen said.
“The fact that we would now discount their participation, I think, is unfortunate,” said Shaheen, who is not up for reelection until 2026. “And again, I think it has implications for Democrats in the state — hopefully not for the general election, but we don’t know that yet.”
Shaheen’s comments are the latest salvo in the bitter battle over changing the 2024 nominating calendar that’s pitted the state’s top Democrats against the president and the DNC….
New Hampshire Democrats are heavily white, but it would be a major misnomer to say that South Carolina Democrats are “diverse.”
Those in the party in South Carolina are heavily African-American. That is of course a huge part of the party’s base, but that is different than “diverse.” There are relatively few Latino or Asian Americans in South Carolina as compared to many other states. South Carolina a whole is pretty Republican of course and there are not a lot of white Democrats left. That could change down the road as upscale suburban voters move to South Carolina in search of a better life (lower taxes, etc, but not so much into cultural fights)
States like California, New York, Illinois, and even Texas have a much more “diverse” range of Democrats and are more representative of the party at large than South Carolina.
I also happen to believe that Biden wants SC to go first, not because he feels he needs it to save him in a nomination contest or even because he wants to reward them for saving his political career in 2020 but because he wants the Republicans in South Carolina to have a more influential spotlight because they are seen as likely to boost Trump.
Another point would be that New Hampshire is much more of a swing state than South Carolina is.
Democrats are simply not going to win South Carolina in 2024, even against Trump, nor are they going to win any statewide election anytime soon.
They won New Hampshire last time and probably would again against someone not named Sununu but taking the primary away from them is not going to help any of their candidates in the state.
Ghost of SE says
I see signs that, given enough growth in the Columbia and Charleston metro and in Upstate, SC could be on the edge of the playing field by early next decade. A true swing state by no earlier than 2040.
Same is true of Alabama and the Birmingham and Huntsville metro. I’ve actually devised a path to victory for Democrats. Even in 2017 and Doug Jones’ win, we were still relying on rural black belt counties whose populations are declining and trending sharply against us. We need to win and rake in solid margins between Tuscaloosa and Talladega, snag Limestone County in the Huntsville metro and Shelby County near Birmingham, and hold our own around Mobile, Montgomery, and Demopolis. Heavy hauls that will take decades of effort.
Ghost of SE says
My personal interest at the moment is North Carolina and Cabarrus County in the Charlotte Metro. I’m even entertaining, how seriously I don’t know, moving up there to work and help the local party build networks and infrastructure to make inroads with the population, both among non voters and soft Republicans.
Trump only won Cabarrus County by 9 points in 2020, the narrowest result for Republicans since the Carter era. If we snag that one, we’re winning the state, and that makes it much harder for Republicans to win nationally. NC voted for Barack Obama in the Democratic landslide of 2008 and has been close ever since. It can be done.
NC and Georgia ripe for the picking?
I hope ur right SE….
All that would be a HEAVY Lift….
I disagree there CG……
SC with its Black voting base for Democrats HAS picked every Democratic Party nominee except for Edwards in modern history…..
Biden WILL Own it……
He ain’t stupid…….
And ur right
Other states are ACTUALLY MORE diverse
New Hampshire still ain’t…..
It and Iowa have skated for a long time…
We’ll see if Biden blinks…..
Remember the state has a Republican governor to boot…