FivetThirtyEight polints out that if other Republican sweepstakes players are added to the polls?
Trump has the LEAD by a comfotable margin…..
It’s early….
Trump IS gonna heva rough next 12 months….
But 538 DOES have a point….
A split 2024 Republican Presidential nomination race IS gonna favor Donald Trump if he comes out in one piece from ALlk the legal troubles he has…..
Yes, it’s still very early to be looking at these polls, and yes, a lot can change in the next 12 months. But we are now in the period where 2024 polls are at least somewhat interesting. As FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley has written, national polls conducted in the calendar year before the election are fairly predictive of who will eventually win the nomination.
Or they would be … if this cycle’s polls weren’t all over the place. Some, like Morning Consult’s tracking poll, give former President Donald Trump a wide lead. Others, like a December survey from YouGov/The Economist, show Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis far ahead, despite the fact that he has not yet officially launched a campaign.
But there’s a reason the polls disagree so much: They’re asking about different campaigns. Some surveys are asking about a hypothetical head-to-head race between Trump and DeSantis, while others are asking about a multiway battle royal among several Republicans. In one of these scenarios, DeSantis is the favorite; in the other, it’s Trump.
When pollsters ask about a two-person race between DeSantis and Trump, DeSantis is usually ahead. A simple average of head-to-head national polls taken since the midterms1 puts DeSantis at 48 percent and Trump at 43 percent…..
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But in polls with more than two candidates in the field, Trump almost always leads. In national polling questions that included DeSantis, Trump and at least one other potential candidate, Trump has an average lead of 41 percent to 31 percent since the midterms.2 (No one else comes close.)….
image….CNN
I mentioned this in a post months ago.
Many of the Republican primaries are “ winner take all.”In other words ,whomever gets the most votes receives all the delegates.Accordingly, the more candidates the better for Trump.Remember n 2016 Trump actually received around 35% of all votes cast.Duethe winner take all states though he as able to still win the nomination.
Good Point Jack….
Of course Trump 2024 would be a wounded animal….