Told ya so……
Don’t care what ole Jerrome fore the Fed and the media stories say….
America IS running a Recession WITH Inflation as a topping ….
The housing market is already in recession and has been since midsummer, according to the National Association of Home Builders, which publishes the Housing Market Index with Wells Fargo.
“The index has declined for 11 straight months,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the homebuilders group. “This is going to be the first calendar year in 11 years where single-family starts,” a measure of new home construction, “will total a smaller volume than the prior year.” He predicts a double-digit decline.
Where the housing market goes, the broader economy follows. Dietz, Fratantoni and others in the industry expect the nation to tip into recession, a state of economic malaise generally defined as two successive quarters of decline.
“The housing market leads the U.S. into recession, and it’s likely to pull it out,” Fratantoni said, with recovery arriving around the middle of next year….
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At a 5.8 percent interest rate, a prospective buyer with a $2,500 monthly budget could afford a $406,250 home. At a 6.5 percent rate, the same buyer could spend only $383,750. Just a year ago, with a 3 percent rate, the buyer could spend $517,000.
And yet, for all the tumult unleashed by the recent rate hikes, a 6 or 7 percent interest rate is not particularly high, historically speaking.
“That’s not in the crazy range,” said Carvell of Cornell. “We’ve been in the crazy range. That’s the fact.”….
Note…
Some of us remember mortgage rates up around 14% back in the day….