The question poised in a mid November 2022 Keith Naughton Op-Ed in the Hill…..
He joins those NOW stepping up to write off the Grand ole Party’s faltering ‘Main Man?’
The conventional wisdom has Donald Trump as either the man to beat for the Republican nomination or at least headed for a drawn-out fight to the finish with Ron DeSantis. But could Trump flame out and not even make it to the Iowa caucuses?
It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. In fact, it’s not far-fetched at all.
Trump has severe strategic problems, polling problems, not to mention his legal difficulties. They all add up to a very rough trajectory over the next several months. Everyone knows Trump hates to lose. When faced with losing, he either claims he was cheated, or quits.
A year from now, Trump might be far enough behind DeSantis that quitting will be the only way to avoid losing.
Bad numbers getting worse
Trump’s polling has been soft for over a year, with the percentage of Republicans who want him to run consistently falling 20 points or more below his approval ratings. He has found it difficult to score above 50 percent on ballot testsagainst Republicans who aren’t even running yet.
And those numbers are getting worse.
Both YouGov and Morning Consult conducted post-election benchmarks, and Trump’s fortunes are falling across-the-board. Morning Consult has the best polling for Trump, but Trump’s favorable rating with Republicans edged below 80 percent. While 61 percent of Republicans still want Trump to run, 73 percent of independents don’t. Trump’s ballot testagainst DeSantis fell from a 48 percent to 26 percent advantage pre-midterm to a 47 percent to 33 percent advantage, down 8 points.
The YouGov poll is a disaster for Trump. In one week Trump fell from 81 percent approval to 77 percent. Far worse, Republicans who want him to run collapsed from 60 percent to just 47 percent….
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Dull and directionless Donald
But Trump’s biggest problem going forward is he has nothing new to offer.
His campaign announcement showed a man just plodding forward. After months of teasing a “big announcement” where everyone knew he was getting in the race, the actual event was an anti-climax. Instead of a big show, America saw Trump stroll into a gaudy country club ballroom and drone his way through a desultory teleprompter speech…
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Quitting is better than losing
If Trump is staring at defeat by next December, my guess is he will find a way to get out — perhaps to fight “unfair” prosecutions, maybe to deal with some fake health scare, or — less likely — deferring to his wife and family. Perhaps it’s a combination. There’s no way Trump will go begging for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire only to be rebuffed. He may be a bit delusional, but he can read the polls.
Too many pundits and politicos have been burned by Trump. The lazy and safe take is to be cautious about writing Trump’s political obituary. But political conditions have completely changed from the days when Trump was riding high, and the political cognoscenti engaged in more wishful thinking than real analysis.
image…The Bulwark