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A LOT of Midterm Polls could be off…Open Thread for 5 Nov 2022….

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The last weekend before the vote has some pundits reminding us that polls are just a ‘weighted’ read of what people tell us….

If you check the collection of polls over at Real Clear Politics , you’ll see polls for the same race have marked differnt results…

Of course that outfit leans right so some polls are not listed and right leaners ARE….

President Biden and Senate Leader Schumer ARE going around saying they belive the Senate will continue to have  a Democratric Majority….

Some Republicans think they’ll squeak out a Senate switch….

Just about EVERYBODY agree’s the House majority will switch to the Republicans…

I’ve posted linked piece’s from the top pundits Nate Cohn and Nate Silver that are cautioning that the Democrats may NOT do as bad as some might think come election night….

More…

If each party were to win every race they are currently favored to win, Republicans would have 51 Senate seats and Democrats would have 49, according to our Deluxe forecast as of Wednesday at 3 p.m. Eastern.1 And if the same thing happened in the House, Republicans would win 225 seats and Democrats would win 210.

But those gains would be modest by the standards of midterm elections. In other words, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, this likely won’t be a “red-wave” election like 2010 (when Republicans picked up 63 House seats) or 2014 (when Republicans picked up nine Senate seats). Instead, it’s looking like more of a “red ripple.” But that doesn’t mean a red wave is impossible.

Our forecast emphasizes probabilities, not binary outcomes: Democrats and Republicans are only slightly favored to win many of those seats, and a seat with a 60-in-100 chance of going blue votes Republican 40 out of 100 times. As readers of FiveThirtyEight are undoubtedly aware, it’s not unusual for polls to be a few percentage points off the final mark (this is normal and just a reality of our uncertain world). Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points.2

In the 2016 and 2020 elections, polls famously underestimated Republicans. If pollsters didn’t address the factors that caused this (which are still up for debate), that could happen again. On the other hand, our research has found that you can’t predict the direction of polling error in advance. Historically, polls have been equally likely to underestimate Republicans or Democrats…

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If there is a pro-Republican or pro-Democratic polling error, it will almost surely unfold differently. Hopefully, though, this thought exercise has recalibrated your expectations. Of course, the polls could also be extremely accurate — as they were in the 2018 midterm. But you should be mentally prepared for something resembling the above scenarios too….

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Many stalwarts of political polling over the last decade — Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, New York Times/Siena College, Marist College — have conducted far fewer surveys, especially in the battleground states, than they have in recent years. In some cases, these pollsters have conducted no recent polls at all.

And on the flip side, there has been a wave of polls by firms like the Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Insider Advantage and others that have tended to produce much more Republican-friendly results than the traditional pollsters. None adhere to industry standards for transparency or data collection. In some states, nearly all of the recent polls were conducted by Republican-leaning firms.

This creates a big challenge for a simple polling average like this one. From state to state, Democrats or Republicans might seem to be doing much better or much worse, simply depending on which kind of pollster has conducted a survey most recently. The race may seem to swing back and forth, from week to week….

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For now, this much is clear: Which pollsters have surveyed a state most recently is a big factor in determining whether the numbers look better for Republicans or Democrats. And this year, the polls that are driving the average are quite different..

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  2. Will the Polls Be Wrong Again?

    Nate Silver: “My personal view of the race is pretty well aligned with the FiveThirtyEight Deluxe model. The polls could very well be biased against Republicans again. The best reason to think so is probably the ‘Nathan Redd’ argument that as polling gets more difficult, you should put more faith in the fundamentals. Usually, the president’s party has a rough midterm, especially when the president has a 42 percent approval rating and inflation is at 8.2 percent.”

    “But it’s not hard to imagine how the polls could be biased against Democrats instead. After 2016 and 2020, pollsters face more reputational risk from again missing high on Democrats than the other way around, and that could consciously or unconsciously affect decisions they make at the margin, or even which polls they release to the public. Moreover, the composition of polling averages has considerably changed, with fewer ‘gold standard’ polls and more quick-and-dirty ones that tend to show more favorable results for Republicans.”

    • — Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat.

      — Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats.

      — Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship.

      Sabato’s Crystal Ball

          • Good Morning Folks….

            Senate looks like Democrats take Arizona and Nevada to keep their Senate Majority….

            Dec 6 they would get gravy with Warnock….

            The House looks like Republican single digit Majority…..

            Boebert has pulled ahead….

            • Greg Abbott
              @GregAbbott_TX
              The 300th Texas bus of migrants just left for Chicago.

              As Biden does nothing, Texas will continue taking unprecedented action to relieve our overwhelmed border communities & secure the border.

              Texas taxpayer money at work?

  4. Republicans on track for 218-220 in the House. Omaha Congressman Don Bacon says if R’s can’t agree on a Speaker(be it McCarthy, Scalise, or someone else), then he will help Democrats to get a Moderate Republican elected.

    You heard it here first: That particular guy will likely be either Washington State’s Dan Newhouse or California’s David Valado(provided he survives his nail biter race), the last pro-impeachment Republicans in the House.

    • Sorry on ur House prediction….
      But we got it about right on the Senate

      I think McCarthy gets it in the end
      It will be a thankless job with such a tight majority….

      We’ll see if it lasts for 2 years…

      • In my wrong prediction, I still got the House more right than any of the major prognosticators. In the meantime, compromises will be made, and whatever coalition forms in the lower chamber is probably reminiscent of Naftali Bennet’s semi-recent one in Israel.

        It should easily flip back next time, but in the meantime D’s need to build up state parties in emerging swing states like both of the Carolinas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, et al, plus their present efforts in Arizona and Georgia. Hell, I’ve devised a path to victory in Alabama that will admittedly take at least 15 years to accomplish.

        Contrary to everyone else’s assumptions on next cycle’s Senate map, all of Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, whoever primaries Kyrsten Sinema, and Jon Tester won’t have great difficulty in their races(Rosen in Nevada will be a very hard race, worse positioned than CCM this year). Great opportunity to roll the dice and play offense in MS, TN, and TX.

        • A margin in the single digits COULD change with illness or other reasons…..

          NY and California made a YUGE DIFFERENCE for Democrats

            • I was NOT surprised…..
              Knucklehead Democrats messed up on redistricting….

              Let things get away fromselves in order to be ‘fair’….

              It cost them …
              They STILL own the state legislature

      • And it should be said there is a very small(1 in 50) chance D’s can hang on to the House. Boebert’s seat flipping Colorado, plus a sweep of four tight races in California, could put them back in. And then we’ll be dealing with AOC and Omar as kingmakers for the next two years.

        • Path to 218

          After uncalled races in Alaska, California, and Maine are ultimately called for Democrats, bringing them to 212 seats(behind the R’s 217), there are six races that will decide whether R’s gain the lower chamber or if D’s get their inside straight.

          CA-3(exurban Sacramento): Kevin Kiley(R) 52.8%
          Kermit Jones(D) 47.2%
          56% counted

          CA-13(Bay Area Exurbs): Adam Gray(D) 50.4%
          John Duarte(R) 49.6%
          78% counted, D’s best shot of the bunch

          CA-22(Inland Empire): David Valadao(R-Incumbent) 52.2%
          Rudy Salas(D) 47.8%
          62% counted, second best of the pile for D’s

          CA-27(Orange County, formerly represented by Katie Hill):
          Mike Garcia(R-Incumbent) 54.2%
          Christy Smith(D) 45.8%
          68% counted

          CA-47(Orange County):
          Katie Porter(D-Incumbent) 50.6%
          Scott Baugh(R) 49.4%
          80% counted, Porter should win by a surprisingly slim margin

          CO-3(Pueblo and Slope Country):

          Lauren Boebert(R) 50.2%
          Adam Frisch(D) 49.8%
          99% counted, provisionals and cured ballots could make a difference

    • Rest assured that GOPer’s will be trying to influence the West Virginia US Senate race….

      Remember?

      Outside the few Blackbuster stuff?

      Manchin IS A SOLID Democratic voting Senator…

  6. Chuck Grassley has already filed to run for reelection in 2028.

    Little farm boy from Iowa wants to beat Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd’s records of longevity.

  10. Pennsylvania House Republicans impeach Philadelphia D.A. Larry Krasner

    The Pennsylvania state House of Representatives on Wednesday voted 107 to 85 to impeach reformist Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, setting up a longshot bid to remove the city’s top elected law enforcement official in a lame-duck session. The vote was almost entirely along party lines, with one Republican joining all Democrats in voting against impeachment….

    https://news.yahoo.com/pennsylvania-house-republicans-impeach-philadelphia-074325174.html

  13. Post Thanksgiving Republican Trash

    Trump kook Mike Lindell,the pillow pimp, says he might run for RNC Chairman against Trump sycophant Ronna McDaniel.Apparently her sycophancy lacks the edge the kooks want!

    Arizona Republican Chair Kelli Ward has blasted Republican Governor Doug Ducey for congratulating Democrat Katie Hobbs for being elected Governor over Republican nutjob Kari Lake, who(surprise!) is suing some election officials because she lost ala her lord,Trump.

    Republican homophobe Commentator Tucker Carlson blasts Pete Buttigieg for not being truthful about being gay during the military’s “don’t ask don’t tell” days.

    Republican lawyer and Trump confidant Jenna Ellis says the Club Q shooting victims are facing “eternal damnation.”

    Lauren Boebert, the poster child for the term “White Trash” , says Democrats are “pissed” that she was re-elected .The homophobe also claims she’s a “victim” of the clubQ shooting.Only in Koo Koo Republican land!Wonder if she’s headed for “eternal damnation.”

    And finally Republican Party Leader Donald Trump is hosting some Neo Nazi goofball named Nick Fuentes down at Mar a Largo.

    Let the holiday season begin!

      • Low Life …..

        A judge on Tuesday ordered Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman, two right-wing conspiracy theorists behind robocalls that sought to intimidate Black voters here out of casting mail-in ballots in the 2020 presidential election, to spend 500 hours registering voters in low-income neighborhoods in the Washington, D.C., area.

        Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court Judge John Sutula placed each on two years of probation, fined each $2,500 and ordered them to wear GPS ankle monitors with home confinement beginning at 8 p.m. each day for the first six months of their probation….

        More….

    • Morning People…..
      Tomorrow should be a Happy Day for Georgia and Democrats…

      My prediction is Warnock 53—Walker 48….

      • This IS similar to MY five point margin WIN for Warnock….…Walker hasn’t led in a single poll for the last two weeks…

        Warnock Leads Heading Into Runoff

        A new UMass Lowell poll in Georgia finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), 51% to 46%.

        Also….

        Georgia Senate Runoff Election – Walker vs. Warnock FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage Warnock 51, Walker 48 Warnock +3

        RCP…

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