Two weeks out!….
Media and pundits….
Democrats DONE?
Maybe?
Maybe NOT?
Less than three weeks before Election Day, voter interest has now reached an all-time high for a midterm election, with a majority of registered voters saying that this election is “more important” to them than past midterms.
What’s more, some 80% of Democrats and Republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.
And two-thirds of reliable Democratic and Republican voters say they’d still support their party’s political candidate, even if that person had a moral failing that wasn’t consistent with their own values.
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For Democrats, President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains steady at 45%; congressional preference continues to be relatively even (with 47% of registered voters preferring Democrats to control Congress, versus 46% who want Republicans in charge); and “threats to democracy” is voters’ No. 1 issue for the third-straight NBC News poll.
For Republicans, the positive signs are that Biden’s approval with independents and swing-state voters is in the 30s and low 40s; that the GOP once again holds the enthusiasm advantage; and that Republicans lead in congressional preference among the smaller set of likely voters, 48% to 47%, though that’s well within the survey’s margin of error.
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Democrats enjoy some of their biggest advantages among Black voters (who prefer Democratic control of Congress by a 74%-13% margin), those ages 18-34 (60%-30%), Latinos (57%-30%) and women (50%-43%).
Republicans have the edge with white voters (55%-40%), white voters without college degrees (61%-33%), and men (49%-43%).
And the parties are tied among independents, 40% to 40%.
Among the voters the NBC News poll identifies as being “likely voters” — those either with high interest in voting or who have a high modeled turnout score — 48% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, versus 47% who want a Democratic-controlled Congress.
It’s the first time this cycle the poll has measured likely voters…
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- 9% of registered voter say they’ve already voted in the midterms, 40% say they plan to vote early (either by mail or by early in-person voting) and 47% say they will vote at the polls on Election Day.
- 77% say they are confident their vote will be counted early, versus 19% who are not confident.
- And 60% of all voters say that President Biden won legitimately in 2020, compared with 33% (and 65% of Republicans) who say he didn’t win legitimately…..
Democrats’ Generic Ballot Lead Plateaus: Congressional Democrats lead their Republican counterparts by 3 percentage points on the generic ballot (48% to 45%) among likely voters, with another 7% undecided three weeks from Election Day. The figures have been rather consistent over the past couple weeks, after Democrats topped out at a 5-point lead in early October.
Biden’s Approval Rating Ticks Up: According to the latest surveys conducted Oct. 14-16, 46% of likely voters approve of Biden’s job performance (up from 44% a week ago), while 53% disapprove (down from 54%).
Democrats Hold Enthusiasm Edge: For the fifth week in a row, Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point gap is the largest Democratic advantage Morning Consult has recorded in 2022.
Democrats Gain Trust on the Economy: Congressional Republicans are favored over their Democratic counterparts to handle the economy, 46% to 39%. But that 7-point gap marks a relatively consistent tightening since mid-June, when Republicans had a 16-point advantage on the question…..