Republicans need rural turnout for November…..

“Republicans are not as energized as they want or expected, and Democrats are very energized right now,” said Chris Walsh, Ryan’s campaign manager.

In four congressional special elections that have been held since June to fill vacant House seats — in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York — the portion of registered voters who cast ballots averaged 27 percent in suburban and urban counties, compared to 22 percent in rural counties, according to the analysis. Ahead of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe, those three groups had turnout numbers similar to each other.

Not coincidentally, in each of the contests that saw lower rural turnout, Democratic candidates overperformed compared to President Joe Biden’s 2020 results. Democrats’ higher turnout numbers have given the party hope that voter anger over the elimination of abortion rights would turn an anticipated red wave in the midterms into more a ripple….

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“A lot of rural voters, they’re more conservative religiously and they were very mobilized by abortion and now they think they’ve won,” she said. “Whenever you see a kind of falling-off of pro-life voters because they’re less engaged, you’re going to see that particularly in rural areas.”….

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“It is a defining issue,” said endangered Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), who is running a spot featuring a rape survivor who needed a lifesaving abortion. “My position and my opponent’s couldn’t be more stark. People should know this is a guy who thinks he has the right to tell a woman what to do after she’s raped.”

Kildee is among dozens of Democrats in the most competitive districts who are flooding the airwaves with abortion-focused TV ads, a sign of just how potent they believe this attack will be in their underdog bid to keep control of the House. And it’s not just candidates themselves: At least seven super PACs have centered ad messaging on abortion rights, as has the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Outside groups devoted more than 40 percent of their total broadcast TV spending to running abortion ads, according to AdImpact.

“It’s a serious subject and it’s really important to people,” said retiring Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.). “So I don’t think you can overplay that.”

In some ads, abortion is the central message; in others, it’s a brief mention. But one way or another, it is the topic that appears most frequently in Democratic spots….

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