One should NOT assume Democratic President will be their 2024 Presidential nominee…
While the feeling certainly is he WILL run and win?
That probably isn’t the last word…
Why?
Polling shows 2 years out from the Presidential election that a solid majority of Democrats do NOT want their President to run again….
(A same majority doesn’t want Donald Trump to run again either)
In addition?
Joe Biden’s overall negative approval poll numbers are and have been ABOVE 50% for over a year….
Biden has several reasons working against him…
Lack of oeverall messaging…
The Economy…
Polls…
Gaffs…
Lack of Presense…
Gaff’s…
His age…
Not so quietly the media is looking at Vice President Harris, whose polling numbers are worst than Biden’s….
The perennial progresives are posted up like Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Acasio-Cortez…
None of them will be the nominee…
The sleeping giant is California Democratic Gov. Newsom…
Make no mistake….
Joe Biden is NOT a lock
Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, an active supporter of Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2020 and frequent opponent of what she’s seen as Biden’s moderation, has been at the White House for several recent celebrations, including for the Inflation Reduction Act ceremony. She told CNN that Biden “should” run, and “we will support him.”
Others are not so clear. Sources tell CNN that many more elected officials on Capitol Hill than have said so publicly remain undecided on whether they want Biden to run again. However, they say there are also many more who are in favor of Biden running and are reluctant to say it publicly because they fear the perceived political consequences.
Multiple members of Congress ducked the question when asked by CNN, saying they didn’t want to be on record discussing the question at all, including one progressive member who was enthusiastic about Biden’s recent record and more open to a reelection campaign these days, but didn’t want to say so publicly.
Even boosters almost always include a little hedge – an “if,” a conditional tense, a “let’s wait and see.”
“If President Biden chooses to run for reelection, I look forward to supporting him,” Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, widely seen as Nancy Pelosi’s likely successor for leader of Democrats in the House, told CNN at a news conference last week – an answer that echoed many other lawmakers who spoke to CNN.
For now, Biden advisers and DNC officials are approaching the future with the assumption that it’s not an if. Still, his advisers rebuff questions about the planning underway for a potential reelection campaign.
“The President has consistently said he intends to run for reelection, and nothing has changed about that thinking or the timeline for making his decision,” one adviser told CNN….
…
Democratic supporters and longtime admirers who believe he should not run again make the argument that he could be a historic figure – rather than a lame duck – if he announced he would only serve one term. Some add, hopefully, that they believe his popularity would immediately skyrocket if he pulled out.
Biden did what he came to Washington to do, some around the President argue, but they also note that his top priority would be trying to ensure that Trump or another Republican wouldn’t follow him to undo all that.
Every one of these conversations is driven, at least in part, by a question that has so far gone unanswered: If not him, who?
Though Biden’s choice is one of the most consequential decisions facing the party, the topic is rarely addressed out loud to him. Even behind the closed doors of fundraisers the President attended this week in New York, attendees said, the 2024 campaign did not come up beyond what has become his regular warning about how much different the second half of his term could be if Republicans take majorities in Congress.